Updated 2 PM Yellow Area 20% -June 24th... Typically Doldrums for Chasers Because Nothing Is Out There & Models IFFY.... So CloseThere' & Yet So Far. SAL vs waves...Chaotic Winds Create Shear

2PM

See how fast things can change.

It's an Area of Interest.

Definitely interested...

This is the wave mentioned below earlier.

Center bottom of the loop above.

We will watch it.

Watch models.

Watch it.

We do a lot of watching in late June.

Note this is the wave that those who feel there is a chance for development in June and into July are watching. This is the area I showed below in models posted by Allan Huffman, who as I said is very reliable and not prone to posting every long term models. Not that we don't love long term models, but there's a time for long term models and when there's shorter term models gaining model support from a consensus of models. And, very in line with climatology for late June. Stay tuned....

 

9 AM

 

Nothing, nada for 7 days from NHC.

Ironically in 2004 I said the same thing.

There's a strange disturbance in the force on Weather Twitter in that one half of the weather people believe firmly nothing will happen til the very end of July, maybe early August and the other half see model support for strong waves in a week or so. There's lots of documentation for the reasons it'll be dead in August as well as good documentation that the regular suspects will be arriving soon to help get things going again. There is no football, may I add, til Thursday September 5th, 2024. Ever notice football arrives at the peak of the hurricane season? Is Hurricane Season really a Fall Season and everything until then is just PreSeason small weak barely there naked swirls that somehow attain a name.

I respect Allan Huffman tremendously.

He's a solid meteorologist.

In every season....

...not a wishcaster wishing what they want to see.

To be fair at least 50 mets posted this model also.

Below we have another post on SAL.

Suggesting a quiet July.

Just as many insist SAL shutting it all down.

One Met said no storms thru August.

vs

Busiest season ever....!!!

Who do you believe? What's the truth? Yes I know SAL came on strong and scared every meteorologist that was  insisting we'd be super busy until suddenly they posted "oh my God, it's all over until late August"and that's when SAL generally lessens after a parade of tropical waves juice up the Atlantic fighting off the SAL, shear at the entrance of the Caribbean goes away and allows tropical waves to keep heading West into the Carib. If you think that's a long run on sentence, July may be one long run on spell of people complaining the forecasts were all wrong for a busy season. Sigh.........

There's SAL.

There's a wave in the SAL visible

That's the wave some are watching.

SAL moves West in tandem with the waves.

Let's see how 2004 ended.

Busy season after the typical doldrums in July.

Ouch... nothing in July. 

SAL wins? More SAL on the way too!

I started this blog on a whim, really annoyed and pissed off as everyone on the Message Boards was arguing and some wanted to "stick a fork in it" insisting it was a dead season while others insisted "no any day now" and these two opposing forces always rear their heads in late June when naked swirls give the illusion we will never get a real hurricane spinning. July 2004 was hot, very hot in South Florida and yellow butterflies danced around Golden Trumpet Trees ... and eventually we had hurricanes. We had way too many hurricanes. Florida does not want to see another year such as 2004.  Jeanne looked dead and then was alive and coming back at us after a loop with moves that could have gotten her into the Olympics. 

Link below site with 2004 cartoons.

This is CLIMO. Typically July is slow while SAL rides the same atmospheric flow that hurricanes will also follow after the SAL fades away. 

Who is right?

A lot of juice there....

..available should shear weaken somewhere.

Who is wrong?

Statistically it wakes up end of July.

I can see possibilities of development that could get weak, named storms moving Westbound into Carib as strong waves often make it past the shear there and either unravel in the Caribbean or make it into the EPAC where they can thrive. So far the EPAC has been oddly silent.  I'm gonna just watch. I'm gonna do some other hobbies while watching loops. I'm going to try and beat the 100 degree heat in Raleigh yesterday tho supposedly it won't get that high and it might even rain as a cold front moves slowly down, then slides back up as a warm front. I hate summer. 

This is the way of the world during Hurricane Season. Time will tell.

I'll be here telling the story, the possibilities and my thoughts as we get into the part of the season where there is something to say. I do respect Allan Huffman a lot and if he bothered to repost the models I'd say there is a weak signal for tropical development, but nothing huge or wicked or wild. The huge, wicked and wild will begin in August and in September we will wish it was Winter and this horrendous hurricane season was behind us in the rear view mirror. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams................stay as cool as you can. 

Link to Remember When for 2004 Hurricane Season when Mother Nature took aim at Florida after a very quiet, July. Awesome cartoons that do in deed tell the story of the way it was after it was quiet for a long, long time and then the tropics woke up and Florida was the vacation spot for way too many hurricanes.

https://kohlin.com/florida2004/toons-2/page-2.htm

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter usually weather... Insta whatever.

Ps

Remember usually droughts are ended by drought busters and usually it's a hurricane that delivers that drought buster. Huge Highs usually produce tropical developments down below, once the SAL gets exhausted and goes away and remember where SAL went is often where hurricanes follow.