Many Questions on PTC 1 Forecats to Make Landfall As a TS - ATL Yellow Area Has Some Potential. New Yellow Circle ... Circling the PTC1 Area. 20/20 on Both.

 Staring with Wind Probs for PTC

Why?

Shows cities that could be impacted.

Directly impacted from a TS...

Cone below 

Cone, impacts far beyond the cone.

Especially with a messy storm.

Yellow and Blue warnings to the N of the Cone.

I will be honest and say that the Tropical Discussion from the NHC regarding PTC 1 described a pitiful mess, yet a reminder that this messy system has potential for developing into a tropical storm at some point before landfall. The center is not well defined, it has limited convection in the necessary places and the strongest convection associated with it is way over East of the Yucatan. Motion of the best guess center is North at 6 MPH. There are many questions regarding the reality of what is going on in this system, recon will go in later today and hopefully nail down some hard facts that will make the future forecasts easier to digest. It isn't even classifiable by the Dvorak, which says a lot and I put the sat image down below for you.

So what could happen? 

It pulls together, hooks left and comes in near the Tex Mex border, delivering heavy tropical rain at landfall and to the North of landfall along the beautiful Texas coastline and it's beautiful barrier islands. Heavy rain for Houston is still a concern, but is it from the flow or directly connected to the messy system that we aren't 100% sure where it is... but we can see it on sat imagery down below.

Or center reforms over stronger convection or just further to the North changing the trajectory of the Cone. 

Note the big pink, purple blob to the East or SE.

The broad, hard to define center.

Yet it does have an nice envelope ... 

Looks like it's sticking it's tongue out at us.

This is the Dvorak loop.

Not much of a pulse.

Longtime readers of this blog or those who follow me on Twitter know I look at the Dvorak often to see how strong a system is and if it's intensifying. A developing system looks much like the big blob in the bottom right corner (that NHC pointed out had the deepest convection) so you can see here by comparison how weak the middle of the there is..or isn't. 

One thing to remember is that the BOC/GOM has a history of fast development, close in near landfall often surprising a small town with a bigger, more intense storm than they expected from it's out of town reviews. 

Moving on................the NHC has 2 areas highlighted in yellow and both have 20% chances of forming; long chances but chances never the less. Yes, there's a chance....two actually.  The yellow X is far out still, yet there's a little feature scooting fast towards the East steadily that's not the yellow X but it's curious and hard to ignore. Is it a leading, trail scout checking out the Atlantic and reporting back to the Yellow X? Who knows, it's been a strange year, but it's hard to ignore it. IF something forms it could come in near St. Marys to Tybee Island (maybe) or it curves further to the North and visits the Boardwalk in Myrtle Beach. It's a real maybe, vs PTC 1 that's a definite maybe.

In truth this is what you get in June. Ever go to the first Pre-Season game for your favorite team and they look awesome, then they lose all their first games once the season starts. Kind of like watching models and getting excited and then a real center forms and they are nowhere near as impressive as the GFS showed them ten days ago. Though...the GFS did see a very fast moving little ball of energy moving fast, much like this little shadowy area is doing. The GFS often points the way, how we translate it or believe the details is on us. The pattern in the atmopshere is what the GFS is sniffing out long range. It's kind of set  up to fail, as it is using Xray Vision Telescopes to see into the future 384 hours away.

Nuff said. Let's take a look at the Atlantic Tropical Basin in the most colorful imagery.

From left to right.

Dark reds show up...however they are on the EPAC side of the Great Central American Gyre. Oops

         Models did consistently show "energy" bouncing around jaggedly from basin to basin.

The vertical yellow trough which is launching convection up into Texas as we speak, moving far to the N.

Between the Vertical "trough" we see nothing but kind of two little red dots. That's our PTC1.

The big red blob (looks a bit like a penguin) is the area of strongest convection "connected" to PTC1.

NE of that in the dark blue is that little shadow feature zooming towards Florida, curious but nothing more.

Looks like a blue comet this morning.

I find it interesting.

Previously I called the GFS storm a "meteor" moving fast.

Sometimes the model gets it right... we read it wrong.

Lead lil blob on left.

Darker blob is out yellow X

And, its kind of spinning better today.

On the Mimic.

To the right on the big image above you see a deep V neck (my mind) and that's where the X officially is, behind the comet looking feature above. 

Special points to red blob bottom right of large pic.

Seen above better.

That's a tropical wave that's lifting N of SA

Made it past the shear and is going where I wonder.

Well shear is "tickling" it....

....flares up way better than PTC

Far bottom right a potent new wave rolls off Africa.

That's it. As detailed as I can get. BOC systems are fun to watch out of the corner of my eye, but watching them form in real time (especially from a CAG) is like watching paint dry. Quasi systems off the East Coast often manifest into a name and no fame and the name never gets retired. Waves off of Africa will eventually get stronger, the Atlantic will be juicier with less SAL and they will be viable. We can see that week by week they are climbing higher, getting into position like a plane that leaves the gate on it's way to it's runway but is not yet ready to take off. 

I'll update later today if something more definitive is delivered from the NHC. And, to be very honest it is not easy to be the NHC in the current pattern that does have potential but is chaotic, unreliable and not the best environment for a system to form in even if the water is hot. Tropical development needs more than HOT water, as we have seen in many seasons when high expectations were dashed and dumped in the dumpster.  What happens in real time is the most important thing ...tho we love to read discussion and forecasts for how the season may unfold.

Besos BobbiStorm

Didn't sleep much last night.

Around 5 AM I woke up to this tune.

It's on my favorite JB CD.