Hurricane Harbor: NHC Puts Out a Cone for PTC 1 That Should Become Alberto (In theory) while other Invest Shows Signs of Life in ATL...

Potential Tropical Cyclone #1



Salient points here are currently it has a poorly defined center at best, and movement in the short term may be erratic until it finds it's groove. Watches are up so places in the path of this potential cyclone can make preparations. Moisture associated with the system and the greater CAG will move towards the Central Coast of GOM as well as Texas cities far from it's forecast landfall in Mexico. Often systems such a as this can ramp up fast and come together just before landfall, so while it's not very threatening now ...do not ignore the potential for trouble with localized flooding at landfall and possibly deeper inland. Stay tuned, this is a heads up we have something coming together that may make landfall in 48 hours and we need to get the word out now while people have time to prepare. Coordinates below. Current movement NNW but expected to hang a left fast and hook in towards the Mexican coast.

20.3N  93.2W moving NNW



Wes is my on air Met in NC


Forecasted strength and points is below.

Wind Probs

PTC 1

Models

Thoughts on the Set Up

One question for me is doesn't the "center" of what could become Alberto move back towards the EPAC or does the rain move up into the Rio Grande River Valley? While we are looking at heavy rains to the North of landfall, being shunted by the strong flow North to the Mississippi River Valley we could also have a flooding scenario in parts of Mexico. And, it's also possible that the leftover moisture, left behind from this Central American Gyre AKA CAG could produce another area to watch in the Gulf of Mexico. Lots to watch and a sort of dry run for when we begin development of tropical waves in a few weeks.