Hurricane Harbor: Updated 5 PM Invest 90L From Yellow 20% X in GOM Off Tampa... Forms?? Off Coast of Carolina??? Long Range Model Intrigue with BOC or Texas System ... Maybe. Can't See the Future Yet But Hints Hinting..ALL Models Show a HUGE HIGH That'll Be a Problem In July When Waves Try to Wrap Up & Spin....

5:30 PM

Invest 90L

Again something to track by June 12th..

A messy area of convection.

Strong convection.

Expected to cross over FL

..maybe form into a closed Low afterwards.

Several models show something forming or trying to form in the Gulf of Mexico either near Texas or Tex/Mex and with time it'll come clearer into focus. Either way a slug of moisture may be on the way for Texas and Florida is ....well..... getting swamped with tropical rain. A name, no name it's all the same unless it intensifies into a system with concentrated high, steady winds vs strong winds in some of the cells training across Florida. As I said pretty much the same either way, but we will see if a name comes out of this or just flooding misery in various Florida cities.

The new updated CSU forecast was released this morning at 11 AM on June 11th and the analog year 2005 has been added with regard to this hurricane season. I don't have to tell most of you that 2005 was a cray cray year hurricane season and much like 1926 another analog year had hurricanes that hit South Florida and then moved on to a second landfall along the Gulf of Mexico.

Here are 4 of those years.

You can see the similarities in tracks.

FL the SE and GOM all in it!

Again I'll be offline til Thursday evening so feel free to read the very long blog on Miami Hurricane History as well as the role over development in a narrow area that was originally a swamp (low lying prone to flooding) can have with regard to how easy South Florida floods. It's easy to say "sea level rise" but in some places that's a cop out in that you are ignoring the very basic fact that as one real estate boom after another built at the edge of the Bay at Sea Level they paved paradise and put up condos, office buildings on a sandbar and created a maze of expressways to move everyone around the once beautiful swamp. As a matter of fact, what I failed to mention is they actually dredged bay bottom up and built islands to create more water front property to sell both on Miami Beach and along Biscayne Bay in Miami.

This is now known as Brickell Key.

You've probably seen it in movies and TV.

Luxury highrises and beautiful walking paths.

The sandbar formed from silt at the mouth of the river.

Miami River.

Note how much wide open space there was in 1928.

In the 1980s Miami went thru an explosion....

...of building, construction and high rises.

A friend told me that there was a joke going around in the 1980s that if you stood too long on Dixie Highway, they'd build a condominium on top of you. 1980s actually made the 1920s seem like a small building boom as the population was smaller and money ran like rain water in the 1980s a time immortalized by the movie Cocaine Cowboys. Boom boom boom, buildings went up fast, faster and even faster than you can imagine. I moved back from LA in the late 1980s and could barely recognize the skyline.

These pictures above are from an awesome site that covers Miami History.

https://miami-history.com/brickell-key-on-claughton-island/

It was a sandbar, silt from the Miami River.

Miami River, a concrete canyon.

Video below ....

...Seminoles would canoe down the river.

Trade beads for supplies from Old Man Brickell.

It's beautiful, beyond beautiful.

But Brickell Key was a sliver of this size.

Yes, it floods when it rains heavy in South FL.

It's flooding now... kids called.

I-95 flooding, few cars abandoned.

There's a price for living in Paradise.

I grew up a mile or two from here.

Only big building was this hotel.

No high rises... low denisty.

Change is good...

...but unregulated development can be bad.

Or at least problematic.

But hey it's beautiful.

I'm a Miami girl, born and raised and I worry on what will happen when Miami is hit by a Major Hurricane head one, up the river or up the beautiful bay and how the storm surge will impact this city I love so much.

66 stories high this sits where that hotel sat.

Beautiful.

Vulnerable in multiple ways with a Major Hurricane.

Just evacuating this area will be an epic mess.

But hey, the views must be golden.

I'll be back Thursday Night.

Til then, stay on top of Invest 90L

NHC is watching this and other areas.

I'm always in awe, every trip home.
I take this picture over and over.

Tropical Paradise indeed.

Keep reading from this morning.

Read the prevoius blog.

Hurricane Prep is the name of the game.

8 AM

Good morning! 20% in 7 Day.

Let's put this into perspective.

Yellow X off W Coast of FL

Expected to cross over into ATL

To be clear this is a system that may form, could form after dumping copious amounts of rain across Florida and then once in the Atlantic off the SE coast some form of Low may develop. This is not the GFS phantom hurricane that keeps threatening Texas, I just want to make that clear. I said a long while ago that I thought the Hurricane Season would heat up and that we'd have something to talk about on June 12th give or take a day and today is June 11th and we do finally have a Yellow Circle to discuss after multiple GFS models have sprayed the Gulf of Mexico with various landfall scenarios for the last few weeks. Despite the GFS Wanna Cane routine, models have been consistently showing a Low off the Carolinas in an area known as the Georgia Bight that often cradles this close in, early June storms that ride up the coastline out to sea. The EURO is on board with this so we do have a Yellow Circle this fine Tuesday Morning!

2 things to see here.

The lil blue Low.

The big red High Pressure.

Some scenarios show this Low sneaking up the coastline, helping to erode the West side of the High and going up to you know where.... where 2023 storms liked to visit on their early Summer cruise. After it passes the High snaps back tight in place.

Yes, Oh Canada indeed as the song goes and last year's bumper crop of Atlantic storms favored port of call. This model above is for Sunday, shows a moist tropical convergence zone and a Big Mama of a wave coming off or would that be Big Daddy since that'll be Father's Day??

Does our Low becomes a TD?

Our Low will dump tropical rain.

Does it get a name?

Or does the search for Alberto remain??

Seriously there will be enough chances down the road to discuss Alberto and all the other 2024 Hurricane Names. Note in this Sunday image there's a whole lot of rainfall along the Gulf of Mexico beaches so if that does verify Daddy won't be golfing nor beaching nor fishing in which case take him to the movies. IF he's a Storm Chaser let him chase the storm!! Never stop chasing!

The last model or two promised closed isobars in the Gulf of Mexico threatening Texas and Louisiana, now it has backed off to a slug of heavy tropical rain. Next model run it could be back to a Cat 3 hurricane. They are models, their "job" is to offer possible solutions that help forecasters to make wise decisions. Either way it's part of the things to do in Disney when young and early in the season we do watch the GFS as it offers very long term solutions. Note below the long range GFS almost makes it to the end of June!!

June 27th a huge High.

Using GFS XRAY vision into the future!

Take it with sea salt!

Following the Model Wars on Twitter or any social media is much like being a child on the Wild Toad's Ride at Disney. Note I never liked that ride, I was always much more of a Pirates of the Caribbean girl.

EURO from Tropical Tidbits Thursday.

It scoots along the E Coast ....

Then down the tropical road...

A week from now.

BOC Low appears again, again on the EURO.

Very inline with what we would expect for June.

Lastly below the Canadian.

It's joined the let's make a Cane in GOM club.

Not most reliable but sniffs things out often.

What is conspicuous on these models is a HUGE HIGH PRESSURE area that wiggles back and forth a bit in latitude and none of these models crown a westbound tropical wave with a name, shear at the entrance to the Caribbean is infamous this time of year! Infact, there's hardly any development from the ongoing, steady wave train riding beneath the large high pressure zone. And, this is right in line with June CLIMO In that we watch for "pop up" surprise systems close in ...on either side of Florida forming as well as the BOC usually and the GOM sometimes. Waves come and go like Uber drivers each car a bit different, each driver with their own unique personality. Each wave juices up the atmopshere a bit more and eventually down the road, probably in June this year if things continue as they are now one of those waves that area easily getting across will find a way of wrapping into a closed Low and maybe it'll get a name.

But for now the name of the game is watching Florida Rains and what may become a system off SE Coastline. If so, pay close attention to the weather forecast for Carolina beaches. And, maybe, just maybe something will form in GOM or more likely the BOC as every year usually, but not always, has one early BOC system no one remembers in August.

I'll be offline through Thursday enjoying summery treats such as Edward's Cheesecake at my house and fancier, homemade ones at friends homes. Making a slow cooked brisket with some sort of BBQ sauce on it, haven't decided I have to kind of "feel it" and I'm moody but I do have some Jimmy Buffett sauce hidden away that I might mix up with something else.... mostly sweet, a little spice is nice.

While off on my two day holiday from watching models please follow all my buddies such as Mike from Spaghetti Models and Dabuh and if Levi Cowan makes a video on Tropical Tidbits please watch it! Nothing can be finer in the Carolinas than watching Chick, Allan Huffman and Mark Sudduth as they really, really know the area and it's coastal lows and named storms. As for Texas Larry Cosgrove is awesome and Thor is there so enjoy his videos and send him some love. I left out a lot of people obviously, but if you follow me on Twitter you know who I respect and who I joke around with....