GFS Loves Texas on one Model, EURO Stays Mostly the Same. Time Will Tell. Paul Hebert of Hebert Box Passes Away. Why Do We Need MODELS Why Not Just Use EURO or HAFS?

 

NHC shows nothing for 7 days

So let's start at the beginning this morning with what's actually happening in the Tropics vs the array of possible model solutions that I'll talk about soon. Look at the Water Vapor Loop above and note that most of the moisture in the Tropics is moving fast to the NE or ENE depending on where in this loop you are focusing on. Despite being warm in the Carolinas today, there's another front on the move over Oklahoma that will arrive here soon nuff and cool us off a degree or two. Shear at the entrance to the Caribbean Islands is doing it's typical job of trying to blow the tops off any tropical waves that dared to get that far in June! And, yet waves keep firing off of Africa.

Areas we watch for development in June are usually close in, either to the East of Florida/SE or down near the Yucatan where rain gathers down below in the Caribbean and then as it gets up closer to the Yuke it sometimes comes together a bit and watches to the North for a front or pattern in the atmosphere to catch to travel towards some coastal city; sometimes with a name and sometimes with lots of rain. So while we watch the daring, beautiful African Waves making it across the basin as they are swimming in hot water, down below most of the stronger shear...there is nothing there today to talk about. A swath of moisture has lingered for days, weeks it seems in the Carib hovering around the Greater Antillies and yet a small piece of the Bermuda High is trying to fight off moisture (rain) in South Florida. However, Florida is a big, long state with different weather patterns and what may deprive Miami of flooding rains, may deliver some great thunderstorms to Tampa or a shot of tropical moisture to the Big Bend. 

There are states such as Texas, Florida, Californi and all 3 have been Republics and are big enough to have vastly different weather. The Carolinas used to include Tennessee once upon a time! Small states have more fluid weather patterns. I bring this up, because when you hear "FLORIDA" may get a tropical storm, like Texas you have to ask "which part of Texas" and never never assume.

Speaking of Texas-GFS is dreaming of Texas today.

Euro still doing it's thing with L in ATL

There is a moisture feed in Texas on Euro below

sliding around the BOC.

 

Models from Tropical Tidbits

Ignore the latitude and longitude in the GFS as I'm not making another screenshot, you get the idea. Ever have a favorite diner near where you go to work, and when you go in every morning you ask "what's the soup of the day" because they make declious soup? And, you know that you don't always buy it, but you're always curious as other diners only offer Vegetable or Tomato Basil. It's always fun seeing what city gets hit by a hurricane on the GFS model that goes 384 hours out (which is pretty much a stab in the dark) but then you want to check out the EURO as well. The reason we have menus is to have a choice of what to order! Kind of like buffets!! I know what to order at my local Indian Buffet as a main dish, but I love the variety and choices of a buffet and eventually it all comes together with an awesome meal and that incredible carrot dessert they make! 

ModelS are there to give us choiceS. Looking back we often see the GFS was onto something before the EURO or ICON but it was one of many possible solutions and yet it smoked out a named storm developing. When the EURO is on board and the new NHC model and the ICON we begin to get a lil confidence. When the Canadian is right early on, we are amused, but we don't bet the bank on it at Vegas.

You'll see a lot of this today online.

Basically means EURO on board for busy season.

Bit of info and data but on board the Cane Train!

Also the news Paul Hebert's passing is timely.

Of the Hebert Box fame...

https://www.gentry-morrison.com/obituaries/Paul-Hebert-5/#!/TributeWall There's a beautiful obituary on line with videos and images, as well as comments many written about his life both personally and professionally. His research in defining the Hebert Boxes still stands as an awesome guide. More on that later, but know there are rules for that box most do not know and Jim Williams often reminds people of those rules online. 

See anything missing in this image of him working at the Hurricane Center in Miami back when???
Think, look closely, what's missing??  No computers! Well no wall of computer screens in front of them as in the old days they looked at weather maps and "progged" the forecast by hand, progressing the fronts,  the high  and thelow pressure to try and make the best guess as to where a hurricane would travel and where it would not travel. No computer models to argue about or debate, to love or to ignore.

Think on it a bit. 

Good link to learn more about it below and a blurb from Jim's site.

https://hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

"Nearly every major hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major hurricanes miss these boxes, they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. "

More on the Hebert Boxes another day.

Have a great day, models will change later and something may or may not pop up from some stubborn wave that thinks it's August, because the water is so darn hot out in the Atlantic.

I'm still going with the concept we will have something by June 12th... an Invest, a Yellow Box or a named storm perhaps but something more definitive than pure speculation.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather and Insta ...whatever 

I have a brother who loved this song as a child.

My mother had a wide collection.

Rock, Western/Country and Opera.

He loved this song.

I love it too.