92L Struggles to Find It's Center. Models Long Range Like It...Go Figure. CAG in CARIB/BOC Bears Watching Next Week. Hot Weekend Across Hurricane Country. Next Week Gets Hotter in the Carolinas.

 

50/50

BOC has 60% in 7 Days

92L 50% in 2 Day

We can literally watch it on radar.

Cute like a donut spinning.

My first thought. 

Powdered Sugar.

As the sun comes up....

...illuminating cloud tops

Going wider you can see 92L

And the area closer to Yucatain.

Regarding 92L

Main problem holding it back is..

...it's tilted not well aligned.

It has some center there...

...you can see from the image below.

There's a Low further to the N 

Close to the Cape is a secondary low.

Up near 30 N...off the coast.

2

This is why alignment is important.

And tilted systems have problems.

Recon in 92L

I'll update later if anything changes.

Models. 

Some show it developing out over NATL

Note there will be localized nasty weather.

From NC to FL there are warrnings at the beaches.

Is 2024 going to be a top loaded season?

Alberto caused problems to the N in Texas.

Over 20 rescues were made in 1 Bch in NC.

Strong Riptides NC beaches currently.

I'm going to divide the basin into two parts this morning as they really each have their own story. To the North in this image high pressure is anchored in strange places. It's hot everyone and anyone who hasn't had their 100 degree day, it's most likely on the way. When I say "North" I'm basically talking above 30N and below 30 N there is abundant moisture and curvaceous, moisture laden clouds connected to the ever popular Central American Gyre that in 2024 seems to want to rule the Cari.bbean not just the EPAC and the BOC. The Upper Level Low that transitioned some as it cruise westbound through the Florida Straits into the area near the Yucatan that gave us Alberto and may give us another named storm in the same region. 

People call this "rinse and repeat" and that pretty much says it all. People in a good part of the country sweltering under early, summer heat would love a small tropical system that would provide a bit of rain, clouds and even a drop of wind. Not a hot wind, a cooling, refreshing wind. On air weather people in NC have said this recently on multiple channels and next week we approach the 100 degree mark, not feels like but really is 100 degrees. 

To the East....

From below to the top.

Tropical waves are ignored.

Flaring up as they get further West.

Saharan  Dust ...

Then that odd feature that's been there a while.

It's Summer.

Forecasts show more of the same for July.

Which is normal as it's Summer.

The above is for Tuesday.

Dome of heat has shifted South.

Carolinas.

It's been my experience in years such as this that eventually everyone gets what they are wishing for regarding a drought buster and usually it comes in the form of a strong tropical system that no one wished for or wanted. Rain is a blessing when it comes in a way that feeds the crops and helps them grow, gently and when you don't have the rain the crops don't do well. Big farms can handle it, but it's costly but they have the money honey. Small family farms lose the crops and can salvage very little. You drive through farm country and see corn rotting beneath the way too hot, relentless sun and the high deprives the corn the rain it needs to keep it alive. Corn like people need water and let's not even talk on wheat. 

Things we don't talk about much.

Again and again and again.......

Use this time to put together a hurricane survival plan as you may need it if you live in Hurricane Country. And, if you live far inland, often hurricanes can move far into the heartland and there was flooding across the US from Camille in the oddest of places far from where it slammed into beautiful little Gulf towns well know back then for shrimping actually. 

If you are gonna need to evacuate ... figure it out now. What are you taking with you.

If you are staying what supplies will you need? Where do you hunker down in your home.

If you are evacuating or staying you will need CASH (hate to tell y'all that) as ATM machines don't work without electric and at some point........once they run out they are out. Truth. Hard truth I know.

So have a good weekend.... whether you're a hide in the bedroom with the AC, stay in your bathtub pretending it's a beach retreat or if you climbed a mountain only to find out... it was hot on top of the mountain.  It's gonna be a long hot summer.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps I don't know about you but some of my kids travel to concerts. An older daughter used to spend her summers on odd retro hippy buses traveling across the Country to Rainbow or someone there festival where she set up, helped out and did Lord only knows what while the party went on; happy days for her. My younger kids travel fast to pop up concerts with five days notice that sell out and fill up the LA Coliseum with 75,000 people and then fly back to Miami again.  Later this week an older son is going with the younger son to Red Rock for a concert, and the brother in Denver is joining them and I've told them if it hails to take video for me. I should get to Denver in the Fall, that's the plan for now but who knows as plans in my family change fast and aren't made that much in advance. So going to show a different video, not a Country Western one or an 80s one as I'm such an 80s girl it's pathetic... LA 80s, not know playing I LOVE LA but I really, really did. You haven't been to Disney unless you've been to a DISCO at Midnight with top performers performing  in Tomorrowland having a blast. 

I'm on a roll. I hate summer. I spent my childhood and teenage years in eternal summer. Well, until I went to Minnesota for one summer and discovered "oh my God it cools off at night!!!" though summer days were hot, especially working with kids in camp. Stayed up all night to avoid going to sleep, you can do that at 17 and when a "cold front" came through in Mid August I needed a sweater. This was new to me. I didn't really know summer could be like that....I went back again and again. LA cools off almost always at night and if it doesn't you can go to the pier in Santa Monica and feel the breeze and watch the moon or sit at the end of a boat dock at Marina Del Rey and feel the cool water on your feet. In Miami AC is literally a life support system about 10 months out of the year and you can't put a fan in the window like you can in LA and have cool air blown into the room. No, I do knot like the heat. I like a lil heat and some sunshine.

So enjoy Fred Again...

I'd like Summer to have a finale.

So we can move on to Fall.

September Remember.....

Football and Prime Time Season.