Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED 8 PM Invest 94 Yellow Area 20% in & days. New Yellow Circle off of African.....Ensemble Models Say Islands & SE Should Watch African Wave Should It Develop

8 PM

And, then there were 2....

Invest 94 and It's African Wave Friend.

7 Day image below.

Regarding 94L the conditions currently are not that favorable, it's moving very fast ...and yet that may help keep it together as the faster it moves the less SAL in ingests. This region often sees early waves moving fast, staying low beneath the bulk of the Saharan Dust. Conditions improve as it reaches the yellow grid near the Yucatan.

As for the African Wave .... again these are low latitude waves, moving along fast and yet this wave has shown model support all afternoon getting it anywhere from the current location of 94L to long range models showing it gaining latitude along a wide spray of destinations from getting into the GOM to making Florida nervous. Long range models are like the horror movies that are the most popular when the most scary... stay tuned and let's see what daylight shows. Daylight will come early to Africa I may add.

Next Monday....

Deja Vu indeed.

Again this is common.

Check back tomorrow...

..and keep reading if you have not.

As this is a track as old as time.

Often a B storm...

enjoy the music.

* * *

2 PM

Our area of interest is moving along at a fairly fast clip, now in the Caribbean close to land and that inhibits it some. But it's moving along and the NHC has upped it's possibilities of development to 10% in the 2 Day period. There is also Saharan Dust there as seen below, and as always not only do systems here have to battle shear but dry air in general ... and in this case SAL is there as well. Again the SAL rides the same air patterns that the tropical waves do. So keep watching. Again the dust shows up as polka dots in the Atlantic.

Little swirl ... just a wave.

Also want to mention the Bahama Blob.

Possible as it moves N it tries to develop a bit.

This region is a prime target for development.

Not saying it will...

..saying it could.

As for the African Wave.

GFS shows it here down the road.

July 2nd..where the AOI is now.

Shows lead wave aimed at Yucatan.

Low... bit of a crap shoot where it goes.

Stay tuned.

Nothing is threatening.

But... that's why now is a good time to ..

GET A PLAN!

Hurricane Prep....

...for when we have Hurricanes and Cones.

Only a matter of time.

Prioritize your own needs.

Keep reading from 8 AM

Thanks.

8 AM - 20% Yellow X in 7 day.

Nothing for the next two days...just watching it.

Mimic shows where the moisture is...

...more orange and golds more moisture.

This is actually a perfect loop to show the tropics, as well as the problems the Midwest are having with flooding as the rivers rise and dams on the verge of failing. A colorful tropical wave emerges off of Africa with dreams of being a tropical cyclone... moving westbound under an elongated High Pressure region. The light gray polka dot look to the high is where the Saharan Dust is strongest and both the wave and the SAL is moving West in tandem. In the middle of the is a small round ball of convection filled with variations of colors showing us the intensity of rainfall, in this neat little ball moving just North of South America on it's way Westward toward tropical possibilities in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. To the North in the upper left part of this loop is a huge ball of convection and that's where our chasers will be today and where the attention of the country will go with regard to flooding in that region.

Many eyes are on Rapidan Dam in Minnesota.

When it rains it pours as the saying goes.

And the flooding follows the rivers.

Towns were built along rivers.

A real tragedy in real time.

Back to the tropics there's an African Wave.

Of course, way too early.

But still there it is.

Models show some support.

For it to get across the Atlantic.

And climb some in latitude.

First real support for such a wave.

Model support..and it's growing.

1 is the possible tracks.

(stabs in the dark by models)

2 is where pressures are...

What Mike is trying to show is that more models are contining to jump on the wave train for this African Wave to lift in latitude and glide around the huge high trying to find a weakness in the high pressure. This would be a wave that many in the Islands and Florida as well as the Carolinas will be watching down the road, should the wave survive in the Saharn Dust filling it's travel route and hold together enough to get a yellow circle to begin with and then we will continue watching it! Currently it's all about ensemble models that show us hints in the very long range.

As for the HEAT make it go away, please! I spent my life growing up in Miami and I've had way enough heat for a lifetime. Spent several summers in Minnesota and I know those river vallies well ... flood plains actually (like we have in the Carolinas) and when it rains it pours and the flooding fills up the flood plains and many homes and farms are in the way of this flooding. I know NE Iowa as have had kids living there, and it's beautiful country but when the rivers flood the whole fabric of life falls apart and it takes a long time to rebuild and recreate it.

Kind of like hurricanes in the South. I'm especially concerned this about a hurricane in the Carolinas this year where the corn is literally dying, roasting in the horrible hot relentless sun with daytime temperatures set to be 100 tomorrow and I'm not even talking on "feels like" temperatures and rain has been rarely seen this June.

I fear it's gonna be a hurricane season to remember IF this weather set up continues and at the moment it looks as if it will so prepare please, get a plan, buy supplies and figure out where you would go if you need to evacuate!

As I'm about to post this blog I noticed this tweet or post whatever it is we call what we do on X. It's a post from Mike that shows the lastet models and so far the models are staying with development of the second wave by Africa.

When I look at the MIMIC below....

...this is what I see in my head.

Without the models.

Convection in Bahams.

Yellow Area 20% but red in convection below.

A litle high above pushing the AOI west.

But the next wave...things change.

Convection and the patterns and movement of it on the MIMIC are a kind of short term crystal ball as they show where convection weakens the High or where the High pushes away the convection. The huge area of convection in the Bahamas that everyone asks about and the answer is "it's nothing" is correct with regard to tropical development, however it's not nothing it's weakening the Eastern edge of the High in the same way each new wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Dust trying to diffuse it some for the next wave that follows in a process that truly is as old as time. In time we get toward August and September and Huge Hurricanes happen rather than naked swirls and small little tropical storms.