Hurricane Harbor: Brief 5 PM Update. Beryl Cat 4 -155 MPH Winds WNW at 22 MPH Jamaica in the Cone.... Does the EYE WALL Avoid the MTNS? Yucatan Forecast to Get a Hurricane ... South Texas to the TEX/MEX Border Pay Close Attn!

5 PM

I took this from Mike on Twitter.

Spaghetti Models Mike.

Will discuss this at the bottom.

First look at Cat 4 Beryl at 5 PM below.

Don't be distracted by the top storms.

Look at the round ball of Beryl

Look at the clear cut eye.

Earthnull shows a small tight circulation.

Extreme storms on the N/NE side.

Discussion from NHC at 5.

The forecast still calls for weakening in 60 hours from dry air and wind shear. Really a big question is does Beryl DO JAMAICA or slide below it, saving it's eyewall from direct impact with the mountains. it's a question. Current forecast is for Beryl to still be a hurricane by arrival in Yucatan, that implies it evades the higher mountains of Jamaica. And, yes wind, surf, pounding rain and devasting weather will pound Jamaica with or without the eye. Hurricanes somehow often do this and draw a bead straight for Jamaica and then move to the N or S of it oddly. Hopefully that luck will keep going and not break on Beryl's watch as a hit by this Major Hurricane would be horrible.

Bottom Line is above.

Still uncertainty as to track and intensity...

...down the line after Jamaica.

As I have said there are not many analogs to study for Beryl that cruised the Caribbean in July, early July and analogs are good to compare and evaluate similarities and differences with weather happening upstream from the current storm and the future steering currents. NHC is doing a good job, and after the hit on the Islands I am sure people in Jamaica are taking this serious and not hoping NHC is making a mistake and they will be fine. Nothing like a Cat 5 landfall to give you an adrenaline rush when it's barreling at you for it's second landfall. Just how many landfalls does Beryl make is a question.

Tex Mex area is very plausible and I can see Brownsville. But I'm also concerned on the timing of any fronts moving down, the strength of the High and oddly Beryl's ability itself to change and make it's own steering currents. If you live in South Texas, I'd keep a very close eye on any changes in the Cone as models are breaking from the pack and turning right way to the North of the border. Far out models, let's see what Beryl does with Jamaica and see what the NHC does with it's cone tomorrow. They are the bottom line. I can give my thoughts, but they are the bottom line.

As the sun begins to set...