Hurricane Harbor: Update 8 PM -Does Beryl Sing Hello Texas? Or Tex Mex Border? Yucatan First... Then ?? Beryl Been a Rule Breaker... Will She Keep Breaking Rules? Take Her VERY Seriously

Let's start with Beryl it is very much alive.

Reports of her "death" were exaggerated.

As the old saying goes.

Historic Major Hurricanes Find a Way...

...to stay alive, almost always.

Models are useless currently.

Fireworks or Flowers you decide

You get tired of telling people to wait another day til after it makes landfall in Jamaica or after it gets to the Yucatan and the the truth is .... some places are running out of time they need to use to prepare for Beryl if they get Beryl IF they are inside the Cone. IF they are very close to the Cone (like Houston/Galveton) then they need to make sure their hurricane plans are fixed and ready to put into action should they be in the cone tomorrow) and know this is the B storm and there are many more to come so if you don't use something for Beryl, you can have it ready for the next one as this is the way of the world in 2024. Pure honesty. I'm not saying Beryl WILL make landfall in Texas N of Rockport, but this is only being logical and proactive. IF you are close to the Cone...think now what you would do should you need to put your plans into action.

It doesn't help to talk on this track or that track. My readers are savy and have been around and know what goes around comes around and living in denial is the worse thing you can do. Have a plan, be ready to put said plan into action if you need. Models are useless currently and it's useless to look for real analogs.

The one thing we know about Beryl is it always finds a way to pull it together and intensify before landfall. Looks very good now and if it hadn't just been a Cat 5 ... everyone would be worried still with a hurricane that strong nearing land and possibly threatening coastal Texas.

The Dvorak may not be colorful and pretty, but it gives the facts, you can literally see the area rotating around the eye, areas of intense weather and it's very close to the Yucatan now. Moving WNW at 20 MPH I can say this again and again, how consistet do you want a hurricane to be?

Cone below for 5 PM you can compare it with the 11 AM Cone below and see it's all edged further to the North over Texas tho it could make landfall in Mexico and then do Texas...or not. Gonna go watch fireworks as the Country Club is across the street and they put on an incredible show. It'll be hot, it is what it is and it is 90 degrees after sundown in NC and I can almost guarantee we will have a hurricane this year. More on that later.

5 PM

11 AM

We know where Beryl has been....

....where it is going.

The NHC has been good with the Cone.

As they mentioned Water Vapor in Discussion.

Let's take a look at the Water Vapor Loop.

Til now this was the steering currents for Beryl.

Huge High propelling it West.

Little ULL tickling it.

Will discuss this more later.

Looking ahead.

There's moisture WNW of it in Mexico.

Far away but there.
A dry frontal boundary pressing down...

...it's not moving fast by the way.

Beryl is moving WNW at 20 MPH.

GOM complicated mess .

Note above Beryl is a East to West dark band above it that zooms through South Florida and hooks around or attempts to mess with her to the the NW of Beryl. That could impact Beryl in many ways, but being that it's Beryl with a history of persisting and coming back and not playing by the rules it may or may not impact it. While wind sheer can pound a hurricane, Beryl is way too good at fighting back. Dry air ..even a sliver can starve a hurricane even though the water is hot .... Beryl rolled off Africa as a kick ass tropical wave and swam all the way to Grenada through Saharan Dust ignoring the SAL as if it had some sort of invisible protective feature like a force field. It just kept going, steady around 20 MPH (sometimes way faster) and speed has been it's friend. Should it begin to slow down a bit, that could be important.

"The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previsou one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the inherent uncertainties of intensify forecasts in moderate shear" (From 5 AM Discussion NHC)

Why does the NHC harp on low confidence and uncertainties when often they lean into being fairly certain.... they are being honest. NHC doing a good job. Let's look at the Models..

Yes, most are North of the border.

South Texas.

Ensemble models show a larger concern..

...beyond landfall.

Euro on top, GFS on bottom...

While a good part of the USA has been hit by a heat wave and a drought, a drought buster often brings with it the danger of flooding. And, many an epic hurricane that traversed the Atlantic ends up far to the North inland over the USA (and even Canada) dumping copious amounts of rain on dry parched ground unable to absorb the sudden gush of tropical precipitation as the hurricane rains itself out. So as much as I worry on South Texas and currently very partial to South Padre as my daughter has friends there who are good people... worried on inland impacts. Camille caused inland flooding and as it exited in Virginia caused quite the mess far from the Gulf of Mexico. We can never forget what happened in NJ/NY way after Ida made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain Footprine from Camille and Alica.

It's something to think on...

...especially as we've had flooding this year.

84 degrees near Tex/Mex coast.

If Beryl gets over it...

..it'll find a way to intensify.
It's one thing Beryl knows how to do..

Again, she's a rule breaker!

Things to look for:

Does Beryl slow down?

Speed has been her friend ....

If Beryl slows down where does she slow down?

Does she hover over an area in the GOM or Yucatan Channel with hot water?

Watch the Upper Level Low ... it tried to knock it down yesterday but ended up partially helping it.

IF Beryl holds on to it's core and is able to maintain it... watch out.

And, I would not bet against Beryl persisting.

From my posts on X aka Twitter ...words matter but so do the pictures.

And still Beryl persists… doing what she does best… persisting, regrouping. Hanging in there.. For Beryl to get to Carriacou she persisted stubbornly as a strong African Tropical Wave in June across a sea of SAL to make it to Grenada, Jamaica taking on towns in the Yucatan.

We know Beryl’s past leaving littered pieces of people’s lives laying on the ground like forgotten lego in an array of headlines. Texas watches a bit worried at the NHC cone. Mexico knows, they’re preparing … July 4th 2024 Hurricane Season

And, that's the truth. Littered pieces of people's lives tossed about like forgotten Lego wherever she has gone and I doubt she's gonna just stop now and give up.

I'll update with the 11 AM Cone and any basic new info from NHC. Today, as has been every day this week, is a day to watch Beryl and see what she does, how she responds to sheer and if she can wrap herself up again not as she was but with a newer improved appearance. Note when you have a hurricane that's come this long, it's been pushing water a long the way. And, while the front is laggy and looks like it's waiting for something to come along... it can be a real rain producer inland, too much all at once time.