Beryl a Dangerous Engimatic Compact Hurricane Hovering on the Tip of the Yucatan. The CONE Now Covers Most of Texas. Which City Does Beryl Makes It's Final Landfall ??

 

Let's start here with black and white.

Sun coming up illuminating Beryl

Banding is visible.

Below are towers.

Those little dots, like pimples are explosive energy more visible with other filters but I like black and white for it's clarity, though it lacks the drama of colorful IR. You can see below the small, intense, compact hurricane well put together considering all the places it's been in such a short time after leaving Africa as a strong tropical wave in late June.

Bit of a tail at the bottom.

Close to the top of the Yucatan.

On it's way to other landfalls.

Yes, the Cone has shifted East and now touches Louisiana. It's been a hard job for the NHC has much of their forecast has been a stab in the dark as there is little reference to go on for a strong, Major Hurricane carousing around most of our beautiful ports of call in the Caribbean in the first week of July. Usually forecasts take CLIMO into account in many ways, yet there is very little to compare this to unique, enigmatic hurricane to.... 

You're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition, however as Beryl doesn't follow rules why should I?

Last night while many online were making fun of the appearance of Beryl on satellite imagery, Beryl just went about her own business reintensifying into a Major Hurricane ....again... just before landfall. The only real pattern we have with regard to Beryl, is how Beryl behaves again and again. Hard to ignore this fact as it travels across the tip of the Yucatan and soon going to emerge over the extremely hot, bubbly waters of the Gulf of Mexico on it's way to Texas. While Mexico is till in the Cone the H in the above map shows landfall as a Hurricane at the Tex Mex border leaning on the Texas side. Most of the Cone on Tuesday and Wednesday is obviously in Texas; even Dallas is in the Cone. 

The Cone is there for a reason and it's updated in real time as things evolve and that is the beauty of it, it is not a stagnant product put out when a hurricane is forming from a June Tropical Wave and left on the table. It's meant to be updated and the NHC is doing a good job with it!

So let's think on how lucky we are that we have the wide array of tools to measure the precipitation, wind, surf, hot towers near the eye exploding in real time that people years back in history did not have to know exactly what was coming. While Beryl is an enigma, back 100 years ago West Indies Cyclones were mysterious storms that could mean the death of many people and a new, bustling coastal town. Add in guidance from the NHC, NWS and other NOAA agencies!!

You can Google the Indianola 1886 Hurricane.

It's legendary.

"In Texas, the hurricane obliterated the town of Indianola that was only just recovering from a powerful 1875 hurricane on the same location. At Indianola a storm surge of 15 feet from Matagorda Bay overwhelmed the town. Every building in the town was either destroyed or left uninhabitable" from Google.

The basic answer you will receive is how and why the cute boom town was obliterated and no longer habitable and as many other towns such as "Last Island Resort" people who survived, picked up what they could from the pieces and just moved on somewhere else further down the road and ofter further inland.

1875 above.

1886 below.

1886 infamous in Key West.

Many travelers on their way to Galveston...

...stayed in KW after their ship was damaged.

Wrecking business got a bonanza!

It would be easy to infer from this discussion that Beryl would come in to the South of Indianola as their tracks were both further to the North...both crossing just to the North of Jamaica and impacting Cuba. In truth every hurricane has it's day and it's own unique track. So stay tuned.

We can discuss Texas later, but its obvious the models that were made fun of online by many as being outliers going into Texas as a strong hurricane were most likely on the money. As always things can change, especially if Beryl slows down before landfall ...in theory. Everything regarding Beryl is in theory as there is not much to compare it to and we go with what we see and know from it's own history to try and see what will be in the near future. Data comes in nonstop in real time and it's evaluated just as fast and used to fine tune the forecast.  Anything goes with Beryl, not much is off the table.

The link to discussion from NHC at 5 AM below:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/050850.shtml

Going to go off for a bit and I'll update later today. Hurricane Beryl is 100 MPH and it's forecast to be 100 degrees in Raleigh today.  So, let me leave you with this image of Heat Warnings across a good part of the SE and note the warnings below it that are directly related to Beryl. I've mentioned this before and I'll say it again, when you have a Heat Dome to the North due to a large, high pressure system refusing to let go and hovering over many states in the SE you will usually see a hurricane to the South show up that helps bust the heat dome and break the pattern. 

Thanks for reading along.

Song below was a favorite of a friend of mine.

I'm an 80s girl but... good music in all time.

A friend loved this song.

So I kind of love it too.

First song I thought of...

..it looks like a ball balancing on the Yucatan.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.

Ps. My mother was an Opera Singer at one time, on stage in beautiful costumes in various operas and in her later years, she kept a little index card over her desk that read "Music has no age" and she was right. She loved Opera, I'm not the biggest fan... I'd take Bollywood music over opera anyday again I studied dance and it's fun to dance to.... Just telling the truth. I have a younger son whose favorite song is Hotel California, his brother 2 years younger travels to see Fred Again...if you know you know who that is..   good music has no age and is eternally beautiful.