Watching Tropics Down the Road - Use the Quiet Time Wisely. Things Will Get Busy FAST!

 

This is a quick blog this morning with one main message, as I'm on the road and will discuss "down the tropical road" tomorrow when I'm back home. If you look at the image above of the Mimic that measures precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere you will see there is ample moisture out there to wonder where we are going in a week or so. SAL is always a factor, oddly some tropical waves find a way to move intact with it (as Beryl did) or just keep going until they find an environment that allows them to flare up and try to develop. 

So while we often say "nothing happening" or "models show nothing developing" it's important to remember that models can switch on a dime and suddenly there's a yellow or orange circle close in on the NHC main page. Happens enough when we aren't expecting action to remember and so I'm reminding you that it can happen and it's important to stay vigilant and aware of any changes occuring in the tropics that could rearrange your plans.

#1 I'm a purple girl.

#2 purple splotches show possibilities.

#3 often a yellow X goes up in these regions.

IF NHC believes it can be a possibility.

Note the bottom panel.

Cherry stripes in the Atlantic.

Long range.

Often as we flip the calendar after a quiet period suddenly something changes. Environment changes and becomes a bit more conducive (friendly) to tropical development. Healthy waves look healthier...

And, as always watch close in as sometimes pop up issues arise!

That said, stay cool, stay safe, stay happy.

Check back tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams ....

       BobbiStorm

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