6 PM Update...... Models See Something.... Maybe 1 Wave Survives According to the EURO.........and EVERYONE Talking About It. What's Mother Nature Hiding Behind Her Back. CLIMO in Charge as SAL Cloaks Coastal Cities in Dust. Nice Waves But Not Long Distance Swimmers. Possibilities Pop Up But What Will or Won't Happen........Stay Tuned. PREPARE - GET A PLAN

The EURO has noticed The Wave.

August 1st..new month.

It's a heartbeat not a hurricane.

Tropical Wave looking for a name.

I posted this the other day.

Been watching the area in the Bahamas.

Near Florida, close in.

Been very primed and ready.

But needs the right candidate....

...to get itself going.

Usually it's a wave that survives... 

Time will tell

I say this to point out I don't only post what the models show. When the  models are quiet and I see a good wave train and a wave coming off of Africa higher than the rest it's a sign something will eventually happen. I do watch the models but when there is nothing on the map I watch the satellite imagery. Also, there has been convection more often than not in this spot in the Bahamas, which is why I have talked on home grown possibilities. And, now the EURO has come on board on this one model run. Either way the signs are there for things to be more active as we turn the page and slide into August.

...a real meteorological guru ;)

Southern Style...

My friend....awesome to follow.

So close in.... trying hard.

Time will tell.

Meanwhile has to stay alive....

...to thrive.

I think the wave train will produce in that time frame.

Stay tuned....

Ps...sometimes it's all about location.

Never. Stop. Dancing.

****

7 AM 

 

Let's look at the Atlantic

While SAL is in charge

There are nice healthy waves til the Mid Point.

No strong model support.

But interesting GFS

(hate when the GFS is boring)

NHC says nothing in the next 7 days.

Tropically depressed ppl online will ask....

...what if there's nothing until late August?

This time of year...

..you can tell the optimists from the pessimists.

Seriously, you have to always wonder as a teacher when the class clown is being quiet. It does develop a tropical wave and then loses it in the middle of the ocean and pops up a small Micro Mini Storm in the NE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Closes off the Mini storm making landfall If that's the right word here) around the Florida Alabama line. That's a very long range model, but the point here is something changed ever so from empty models without even a fantasy cane. Euro shows nothing. The CMC forms a closed low of some kind off the East coast and slides it along the Western edge of the huge high shoving it aside for a while and then moves up into the North Atlantic. The Icon keeps getting waves out to about 45 West before giving up on them and also shows the East Coast low off to the North Atlantic. They all show a healthy High, especially to the South from OBX to the Florida Keys and sometimes down into the Caribbean.

Any change is some change.

Strong waves are stronger waves than the last waves.

Each strong, tropical wave takes a bite out of the Saharan Dust.

Gotta tell you I like one of the waves and I don't think it's impossible it flares up somewhere further down the line. In the Carolinas we have rain, every day for the next few days. The Gulf of Mexico is loaded with rain on both sides, as Miami is getting slammed again with monsoonal sort of rain and rain clouds hover off coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Sounds like Summer....smells like suntan and people are dreaming about Fall around the corner (after we get through August) so choose the season you love the most and embrace it. If you are a Summer personality, enjoy it as it won't last. If you are a Fall girl, pumpkin spice frappes are coming to a menu near you in South Florida. 

If you ever played football or just love football you will recognize this pattern. The High is playing defense and it's possible the other team needs a new quarterback or perhaps a better offensive line to give the quarterback some time to throw deep into the end zone. 

There's nothing going on, won't lie to you. Online people are showing long range models for Mid August to see if something might develop before September. TWC is are tracking Saharan Dust with interesting stories grasping at something to say in the Dog Days of Summer when Mother Nature is playing possum waiting to burst onto the scene when CLIMO says it will as CLIMO has wrestled Mother Nature back into her normal pattern after letting Beryl out of the gate while she wasn't paying attention.

It's basically that simple. In August waves get stronger, and often something tries to form close in. Fronts are weaker, Saharan Dust is weaker and on it's way out and everyone watches tropical waves while surprise pop up, small systems slide in somewhere when everyone is staring East towards the distant Atlantic. The know it alls know it all saying the forecast for a busy season is a bust, until Mother Nature shows her other hand. 

Prepare. 

Get a plan.

Get a back up plan, in case you want to evacuate.

Know your evacuation zones and know whether you can safely ride out a storm.

Know, like the news this past week ...everything can change on a dime ... every single day.

Sweet Tropical Dreams or dreams of the pumpkin patch.

Whatever rocks your boat.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

If you got a boat you're on it. If you like the beach you're at it. If you hate summer, you're at the movies and hiding inside somewhere with the AC turned all the way up. Find your fun in the sun or hiding from the sun and enjoy it while you got it. As we edge deeper into August, tropical waves are healthy and Saharan Dust is gone like a wicked case of the Covid variant going around and then it's gone.