Hurricane Harbor: Bud Forms in EPAC - Count 7 - 10 Days For Development in Atlantic Basin. Ensemble Models Jiggly and Fun to Watch. End of July into August 1st...Watch Out. Did Ya Ever Play Pinball??

NHC says nothing for 7 days.

Bud formed in the EPAC

Count 7 to 10 days for the ATL

Are you watching the new wave?

Are you watching off the SE coast?

Are you staring at the Gulf of Mexico?

Who are you?

Where are you?

What do you really, really want??

Good to see Thor making a video.

Watched while looping the WV loop.

That's just a tease, don't click.

Link below.

Remember Ensemble Models is like trying to read tea leaves ...some swear by it.

Regular models aren't often as much fun but more definitive. Breakfast Tea.

Ensembles aren't showing you "tracks" they are showing you possible different locations where something may form and then where it travels. Follow the bouncing ball. And, often ensemble models sniff out the pattern like a really good Cocker Spaniel or Golden Retriever.

I kind of wrote the ending to this blog, before I started which is odd for me. I often go with the flow and yet when there's nothing definitive to say it's best to be honest. I also had weird dreams when I was waking up this morning, but I digress and yet it explains a lot.

Ensemble models are fun. They always remind me of pinball machines and there was a time I could take a break and play pin ball for hours, in high platform heels beating the ass off of an odd collection of guys who would freak in awe how I did that. Honestly, I told them it was the heels, they gave me the edge. Barefoot I couldn't get the right angle nor jiggle the machine just enough for it not to tilt and yet get the ball to do what I wanted it to... I could play for hours for free and yes I did.

When we look at models, especially ensemble models everyone sees what they want to see and if you try too hard it tilts and game over for you, though someone else might get a storm. You can't force it to form and where it forms matters and when it forms matters and that's why one of those tracks may verify perfectly while the others are out of the game. Then it's a marble shot off into a pattern that is set up for the machine to usually win, though sometimes you can beat the machine!

This is that time of heartbreak for hurricane trackers who want desperately to track and perhaps chase and models are not totally reliable, Saharan Dust is bothering everyone's eyes and doing way worse to the beautiful little tropical waves, bouncing along westbound trying to get somewhere while SAL sucks the moisture out of them if they are too high. Note Beryl was low, stayed low. Late July waves are usually higher and the new wave is coming off at X marks the spot latitude wise to be a contender!

I do think it's most likely going to go lower than most suspect, unless the energy splits as sometimes happens and part of it moves up towards Bahamas and another part sneaks into the Caribbean sliding by the Yucatan it suddenly gets noticed and whoah Gulf of Mexico!

This time of year if you want to place a bet.... bet on something coming alive just before the Islands. If you like a long shot, go for "hurricane off Florida coast" or "another GOM landfall!!" but in the end that's a recipe for click bait and heartbreak.

But oh that new wave looks good. My concern is ...it has a friend and the friend really, really likes it and the friend behind it is moving faster than the bigger lumbering wave. So do they collide, combine or create an imbalance of energy and we have to watch to see which wave wins?

You can see here the 2 waves and SAL.

The Beryl Kick Ass Wave....

..was sneaky early & stayed low.

This region above is begging for a system.

Tropical system.

TD? TS? Cane?

When, not sure but it will get one.

Often while we stare at waves off of Africa, something closer in is trying to form from remnant leftovers from an old wave, a stalled frontal boundary and an over active sneaky Upper Level Low that all collide and make one hell of a tropical dish. You want to watch a Trailer for a movie or the real movie? Sometimes trailers are better. You want to see highlights of a speech or do you want to watch the speech? Never trust Memes they are funny but...