Funky Stuff Going On with Emily and Possibly Franklin...

Is it two, two, two waves in one or are they two different systems?

That and many other questions are being currently answered by the hurricane men in the flying machines. Inquiring minds want to know.

PR NWS is covering the wave carefully, as it may be in their backyard or hovering over it in a few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

See for yourself. The wave to the East has a tighter circulation, however the one to the West has stronger convection.

Intriguing situation out there and it's happening in real time, live... which is why we love tropical weather.

Stay tuned... we should have an answer later in the day.

If there are two circulations, how will the handle it at the NHC and will they do the fujiwara dance around each other or will one go into the Carib and the other head off towards the SE Coast. Or, will one suck the life out of the other.

The problem is...IF the wave to the West has a closed circulation and TS force winds they have to post Watches and Warnings Immediately.... this is a time sensitive problem for the powers that be.

We should have the answers soon....

You look, what do you see?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ft.html

Besos Bobbi

Ps...note the following report from the Weather Bureau in Barbados

"

HERE IS AN UPDATED WEATHER BULLETIN

Issued by
The Barbados Meteorological Services

at 3.00 p.m. on Sunday, 31st July, 2011

As we continue to monitor the progress of the low pressure system now located about 450 miles east of Barbados, current analysis and communication with the National Hurricane Center indicate that the development of the system has been retarded somewhat and there is no closed circulation at the surface at this time.

As a consequence of the above, the issuance of advisories has been further delayed.

However environmental conditions remain conducive for the formation of a tropical depression within the next 12 – 24 hours and reconnaissance aircraft will continue to investigate the system.

For Barbados, cloudiness will continue across the island with embedded showers, isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds. Although satellite imagery continues to show some marginal improvement during the night, occasional showers will still be around. For tomorrow, as the system moves closer to the region, conditions will once more deteriorate.

Above normal sea swells of about 2.5 – 3.0 meters will accompany the system hence sea bathers and marine interest should take all necessary precautions.

Residents in Barbados should continue to monitor further statements issued by this office.

…………..
Hampden Lovell
Director (Ag) - BMS"

Navy Issues Tropical Cyclone Alert... Different Tracks for Emily

The Navy has issued a Tropical Cyclone Alert on their website with a preliminary, short term track that bodes problems for the islands. Mind you, Emily has not formed yet, but she will. Currently, the NHC is issuing advisories on their new depression in the Pacific, so they may wait until they have more hard data to upgrade the soon to be new depression in the Atlantic.

Can you spell, thinks are heating up???

I posted the image from the Incomparable Skeetobite's site below here, check it out. To stay on top of this ever changing tropical world we live in, bookmark this site:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=91&a=2

And, until we get recon out there with accurate data to feed into the multiple models that whisper into the ear of the forecasters at the NHC what Emily will do... we might have a case of garbage in and garbage out. However, a trend does seem to be developing as fast as Emily is out in the Atlantic.



We see a path that is WNW and swings up through or over the islands and which islands she cuts a path across makes a big difference. IF she goes through the Virgin Islands, for instance, it barely puts a dent in her. IF she goes across Hispaniola before turning to the north she will have to rebuild a bit and well when they go through Hispaniola one never knows what will happen for sure after that trek. She could miss the islands all together which could mean two things: a stronger storm and/or a faster turn. Anything past a three day forecast without a real definitive call on her center and strength at this time is just guesstimating.

So, stay tuned.

Remember one thing... each model spits out somewhat different data. Similar, but different and if you want to know what the difference is check out the graphics below. That's a big difference depending on where you live. Now, if you live in Idaho it might not seem so big, but if you live in Miami or the Bahamas it's a really BIG difference. And, if you live in Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands it's the difference of a smile or a grimace.

And, lastly if you have nothing to do today and want to go away over night while the living is easy in the Florida Keys, may I suggest going to Rock Reef Resort in Key Largo. I'll post more on this later when I have some time. The place is a trip back into time to a tropical Garden of Eden or the Florida Keys in the 1960s. Beautiful, serene, lush and tropical...the word TROPICAL cannot be understated, it's heavenly. A quiet private beach in the Keys, hammocks to swing to sleep in and tables to picnic at or write the Great American Novel..whichever you prefer. One of the nicest places I have ever been.

YES, it really looks like this and I have the pictures to prove it. Check it out, because it is truly a paradise on earth.

www.rockreefresort.com



If I wasn't going to my son Levi's engagement party tonight, I'd be there relaxing with a glass of wine and watching the sunset. It's a beautiful day to go away if you live in South Florida, whether you are taking a walk on the Hollywood boardwalk (which I might do) or driving south a short ways to paradise...enjoy it! For my part (if Susan is reading this) it's a day I've waited for a long time. Levi has not been the easiest child to raise...in fact at times he raised himself as well as a few of my younger kids. I've seen him do things that I am not at liberty to talk about as I am the only parent who is not talking to the press ;) but he is capable of almost anything, trust me. He is amazing, brilliant, handsome and smart with a fiance who is equally as special. Can't wait to party this evening!

So, in honor of Levi I'm gonna post this great link that he is most likely too busy to click on that will give you up to date information on what MIGHT be Emily's first stop in her tropical trek across the Atlantic. Great information on any island in the world anywhere, especially Dominica or the Dominican Republic. Isn't it wonderful having a mother whose a reference librarian?? Sorry, bear with me... in a somewhat celebratory and silly mood.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/do.html

As for those tracks.... check out the differences and keep watching the tropics because they are getting very tropical from a weather point of view. If you've been wanting to take a nice vacation, do it now while you can because after this year a few places might be in the rebuilding mode and no I am not hyping... I am just going with the predictions of the experts in the tropical weather world.

Enjoy your Sunday, whatever you do and no matter where you live nor who you are may we always enjoy parties and happy days.

As for where Emily might go to party, check out the possibilities below. And, remember that while it is Summertime and the living is easy, it can sometimes seem a bit nerve wracking and uncomfortable, the way Janis Joplin sings about it in the link below. You get a little hot under the collar, beads of sweat slowly slide down your head into places you don't always want to mention online.... you get a bit queasy watching the weather forecast and then when the storm slowly slides by your city you let out a sigh and feel jazzed and crazy, great song even if it leaves me feeling a bit uneasy. And, yes you have to wait for it to load and for Janis to get going, a lot like waiting for Emily.

Door #1


Door#2



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzNEgcqWDG4
(for Dina)

Besos Bobbi
Ps. The Navy did not say WHEN for sure it would form, they are just stating the obvious and doing their job, next the NHC does theirs. In between, I do mine which is to keep y'all informed as best as I can while entertaining you a bit as well.

East Coast of US/FL Coast...Watch the Wave That Will Be Hurricane Emily

The wave that most likely will become Hurricane Emily is now a big red circle at the National Hurricane Center's site. It's chances are up to 90% which is pretty much a "sure thing" in the tropical world. It had a chance earlier today, however the convection waned a little bit as these systems often do as they are in the formative state. Her banding and cyclonic spin are developing nicely and it's a beautiful storm to watch come together. Easy to say "beautiful" while it's out to sea and not yet a killer storm about to slam into some island nation or a part of the United States coastline. Beautiful is a relative term, to storm trackers it is for now... beautiful in it's early stage of formation.

Remember, this is a big system in what is called a "big pocket" and it is NOT a small storm. Big systems, as a rule, take longer to spin up than small systems. Then again, once they get going...they can intensify rather fast given the right environmental circumstances.



So far, the models insist on taking this system wnw and into "United States" hype range.... meaning that every part of the East Coast will most likely at some time worry on this storm. There is no immediate sign of recurving out to sea just yet. Some models take aim at South Florida (everywhere from Miami to Jax) and other models bend the track north enough to make the Carolinas worry. A few models slam it into the islands aka David or Hugo, before it bends its track north enough for the Carolinas to worry on. Truth is, it's just too early to tell what the track and intensity of the storm will be. However, it's not too early to see it will develop, will become the first hurricane of the season and will give forecasters and coastal residents days of nail biting over the next week.

Tomorrow is Sunday, unless you have an engagement party for one of the your kids to go to..and I do.... go out and stock up on hurricane supplies. Buy batteries, water, snack food, crayons for the kids (they don't need batteries) and whatever you think you might need to get through the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, because I got to tell you now... it may be coming at you sooner rather than later.

Loop the loop and watch:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ft.html

First, Emily needs to keep consistent strong convection in those beautiful, big sprawling bands of hers and next she needs to spin like a buzz saw and burn with an intensity only those real Atlantic hurricanes have that become the infamous storms. Til then, she is just a really, strong, big wave with the word "HURRICANE" spread all over her satellite image.

As for Don, he made landfall near Baffin Bay... he may have been the last the of quiet tropical storms of 2011.

As for Emily...stay tuned, she's getting her act together, slowly, steadily and that foretells of big things to come. If she is properly stacked...as in a well developed tropical system not the next Victoria Secrets model...she will make a name for herself, you can trust me on that.

The only thing holding her back for a bit, is a pocket of dry air out in front of her, once she gets past that and into warmer water, watch out. You can see that on the link below, the pocket of blue in front of her and you can watch her intensity go up and down, when you see a "roll" form, she's the real thing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

So fellow Miamians.. prepare for the hype on www.wsvn.com and if tracking hurricanes is your favorite form of entertainment ...enjoy, cause it's gonna get hyped!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Come Together Emily....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEo9Bh679wM

Don Makes His Move on Texas, Atlantic Wave May Become Hurricane Emily

Okay, that's a sort of gutsy call but I do think that the next wave in the Atlantic has the potential to become a hurricane not just a tropical storm. It also has the potential to make people in South Florida and Cuba worried on it's track.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201191_model.html

I've heard chatter online about how Haiti would be in the way.

1...That does not forebode well for the Islands that it's assumed that it will affect the islands. Never assume anything as they say.

2... Never bet on Haiti to protect the US and Cuba. It happens, it happens often but just as often a storm rides the north coast or just keeps going like Hurricane Georges who traversed most of Haiti without so much as burping.

3... It could go south of or north of Haiti. Are we so sure it's forming that we are now figuring on Haiti being America's windbreak in the Caribbean?

This is all long range talk, but about a week or two ago a long term model showed just this scenario with a weak storm around South Florida, another wave behind it that would be Franklin and Gert about to come off the coast of Africa. Everyone made fun of the long range model, but it seems to be playing out. Go figure..

What I am sure of is this spate of "tropical storms" will not last forever and this season is going to be busy, very busy so hang onto your hurricane hats and buy your supplies and get ready to track Hurricanes. August is hurricane country, and we should have some "Hurricane Days" on the calendar soon.

As for Don... coming in just north of the border, doing that Brownsville/Corpus Christi two step. Lots of rain, possibly a few twisters and some great memories to tell the kids.

As for Emily... she's out there, closer than you think.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbi
Ps
She's got a big pocket, she could be a huge storm with knock out bands...
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx

We'll see

Don Texas Bound ...strong tropical wave in the atlantic

A tropical wave in the mid-ATLANTIC is westbound towards a name and possibly more fame than Don.

Don is on track to do the Texas Two Step that July storms love to do..Brownsville/CC.... currently a %0mph decent tropical storm.

The wave is worth watching for anyone in Florida or the islands....keep watching...

Mored later...

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Don Struggles as it moves towards the Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Don struggles to fight off shear out of the North as it moves towards the Texas coast. It should make landfall as a respectable tropical storm... though one never knows for sure. If rain is what people in Texas want, rain is what they are going to get.

Please note, behind Don are several waves moving westbound towards a date with a name and a set of advisories. We are ramping up towards the busy part of the season here so stay tuned and keep watching.

I'll post more on Don when I see Don do something specific, for now he is holding his own under somewhat hostile circumstances.

Keep watching...

As for me, I had mimosas for brunch with the Mayor and various city historians who celebrated Miami's birthday. It's an amazingly, beautiful city with a breeze that blows endlessly in off the bay... she sparkles in the sunshine, she shimmers in moonlight... she's vibrant, exciting and beautiful... what more can anyone want??

Besos Bobbi
Moon Over Miami:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah8Cr9Zv-vk&feature=related

Tricky Forecast for Tropical Storm Don & Happy Birthday Miami 115 Years Old

Small storms like TS Don provide forecasters at the NHC with a list of problems when trying to forecast both track and intensity. Big intense Cat 4 storms moving wnw in the open ocean around the edges of a strong Bermuda high are a lot easier to predict their story and its ultimate finale. There's the high and there's a trough and a path in between. Small storms in the Gulf still trying to allign their upper and lower center that could move erratically like boozed up wannabe rock star who could fall apart before ever attaining fame...so much potential but he just couldn't pull it together vs sudden fame as a one hit wonder who ramped up fast and slams into some Texas town. Which scenari is it?? I mean when the gang at the NHC says they aren't sure what's a girl writing her blog supposed to say??

"Another factor to consider is that the size of Don makes it susceptible to rapid changes in strength...both up and down...that are nearly impossible to forecast given the reduced organization"

The above quote is directly from this mornings tropcal discussion out of the NHC. Can't wait to read what they have to say at. 11AM. They are rarely unsure for long. They will have better sat imagery to look at and more exact information from recon. They are doing their job....now its up to Don to show his hand.

As for me ill be taking part in a birthday celebration today when Miami celebrates her 115th birthday and History Miami marking their partnership with the Smithsonian.

Miami is still a sexy beautiful lady painted in art deco colors with an exciting life. She is the Queen of the Caribbean, she shines at night basked in colorful lights. Miamians are beautiful both inside and out. We love to work out, play on the beach, dine in the moonlight by a tropical breeze on the bay and we love to dance. We speak many languages and dance to different beats and that is what makes us alive and NOW. We have a history, a past, a present and a future. We don't give up...not from recessions or depressions or hurricanes. We keep on dancing...

Join in the dance and come visit Miami....the Magic City.

Mind you Don won't be visiting but can't rule out any visits later in the season by any of his siblings.

Happy Birthday Miami and keep watching those waves.

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Storm Don Forms...as promised...

TS Don formed in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon as I said it most likely would. He's moving to the wnw at 12 mph with a rain date for Texas. Where in Texas is the question.

Though not currently forecast to be a strong storm that could change. And, remember the lesson Allison drove home...that a very wet tropical storm can make one hell of a mess.

Any movement more to the right could take him futher east and allow him more room for intensification as there is dry air to the west and more moisture to the north. Why would he go west you wonder??? Come on I know you are wondering. There is a high pushing him west, any weakening of that high would allow him to move further to the right. He is not anticipated to do so but well...tropical storms in the Gulf can be tricky if steering currents break down or get funky.

This does have the potential to grow in size if not strength.

And just an editorial comment here...I think women make better trackers as they understand better the slow, exhausting process of giving birth better than men. Its tedious, and it feels like its never going to end but well... suddenly something happens and the baby finally decides to make its dramatic entrance on to the scene...when it wants to mind you. Tropical cyclones forming is a lot like waiting for the real thing after multiple false labors. And, once out there's no putting the baby back into the womb. So guys....whether you thought he would or wouldn't finally form...he is here. Deal with it!

And, like any true baby tropical storm they are prone to do bratty things. So it is possible to have a relocated center further north or east. If so the models will change faster than a NY minute!! Which means basically HOUSTON IS STILL IN IT.

EVERYONE IN TEXAS pay attention

Ill be back later when I have new information. I want to see the newest models and how he looks in the morning.

Sweet tropical dreams,

Bobbi
Ps sorry for any typos. Androids work wonderful but they are no replacement for a laptop. That said....we've come such a long way from the old days when we were all playing "let's be forecasters" on aol. Then again some of us weren't playing ;)

100% chance of development...waiting for upgrade..

Recon has been out there all afternoon. If there's a center they will find it.

Problem is where the center may be. If its further to the north than expected it will make a difference with the models.

For now waiting for final confimation if we have td4 or Don.

100% chances sounds like a sure thing.

Stay tuned..

Tropical Storm Don Forming... Tx Bound?

Will post later today when it's official and there is more information. It's a bright red circle on the maps, they have it at 80% and the Navy site is changing over it's format to handle a storm not a tropical wave.

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY."

Stay tuned, big or small it's going to make landfall somewhere along or near the Texas Coast. As they say... watch what you wish for and everyone there has been wishing for rain. It's on it's way.



Besos Bobbi

Watching Wannabe Don in the Caribbean... Tx/La Region Pay Attention

The Red Dot down in the Caribbean formerly known as "possibly Don" was downgraded to less than 10% chances and is now back up to an almost respectable 40% orange circle on the NHC website. The problem is it has a beautiful spin, yet no observable circulation so it's a no go for upgrade to Tropical Storm Don just yet.

This is like the Scarecrow trying to prove he has a brain to a man who has no heart. Does he or doesn't he exist? Only the models will whisper the answer into the ears of the guys at the Hurricane Center and the men in the flying monkey machines will take pictures with their IPhone and Dropsondes and tell us whether or not we have Don in the morning.

If Don does develop, this is the path that he would be taking and for those out there who have been praying for Texas rain, keep watching ...and if you live in Louisiana keep watching as the models that took it straight to the Tex-Mex border have been shifting right (aka North) with each model run.



Personally, looks to me like he's spinning but that doesn't mean it has a "closed circulation"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Hey, if you are bored with the one day possibly Don, you can follow the swarm of activity in the Canary Islands in a region that doomsday people love to watch:

http://wet.kuleuven.be/wetenschapinbreedbeeld/lesmateriaal_geologie/wardday-lapalmatsunami.pdf.

Yep, when real weather chasers get restless waiting for a real Cape Verde storm to form, they will watch almost anything... this way they are killing two birds with one stone as it's in the same general part of the world. This link was passed along to me by one of the best tropical mets around, enjoy:

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earthquakesvolcanos/
620-earthquakes-recorded-on-el-hierro-in-the-canary-islands/28244.html/
comment-page-1

Mind you, the eyes of the Irish might be watching the Canary Islands for earthquakes but I'm watching waves and right now there is what was once a Cape Verde wave that is poised to possibly develop and move north towards the United States.

On a personal front... Escaped today and got some relief from helping out with my mother and enjoyed some great Indian food for lunch, while weaving plot lines together while listening to some really great Bollywood songs. I went out for Chinese with my son and his wife and am enjoying some wonderful Wifi time online again at his house while contemplating doing Cuban food for breakfast. Gosh I love Miami ;) Bear with me, a couple more days and I'll be back one way or the other sooner rather than later if Don decides to show his handsome face. Taking turns helping out with my mother who is having treatments for vision problems, mind you as bad as her eye sight is she was able to see the TV during the news and wished the wave away from South Florida ... so you all have her to thank for saving us from this one.

I've seen some very long range models that show the Atlantic to be extremely active in the weeks to come with a wave train set up from South Florida to Africa, with at least three tropical systems out there. Mind you Aunt Jenny and her Ouija board might be more accurate than the long range models but they made me sit up and go "Wow"

Next system down the road might be the wave in the Atlantic, keep watching.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true



Sweet Tropical Dreams...enjoy the balmy night in Miami... it won't be balmy forever,

Bobbi

Is Tropical Storm Don Forming in the Caribbean?

The tropical wave that is about to enter the Caribbean has been upgraded to 20% chances and has developed beautifully during the day on IR Imagery. It's got a long way to go before it gets a name or even a designated TD number but it's got it's own model runs and is clearly visible in satellite imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

NOTE: Do not trust early model runs as they can be far to the south or to the west, takes a while to get better data and for a real storm with a real center to develop before we know where this puppy goes. Until then, everyone will "wishcast" it to their local town or their worst home grown scenario. Surfers will wait with baited breath for stronger waves coming their way... keep waiting.

I do think there are higher odds than 20% for this storm to develop, especially the way it looks this afternoon.

Early Models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201190_model.html

Everyone from PR to Texas including the Florida Keys and Cuba should be watching this one, just in case something happens down the proverbial tropical road.

Got to tell you, absolutely love watching a storm come together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

As for me, hot and rainy in Miami today. Very hot. Hot, hot, hot!

Keep watching.... think this one may be Don!

Besos Bobbi

Or as an old boyfriend used to say... You may be right, I may be crazy... but if Don crashes your party you are gonna wish you were reading my blog, am sure of that!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi8Dzclcc8w

Bret, Cindy .... Waiting on Don

Y'all have to excuse me here as I haven't been covering Cindy nor have I paid much attention to Bret. Just not really prime time storms, they do have stormy weather in them but they are safely out at sea and I have been busy dealing with a problem my mother has with her eyes.

Long story short, she had a lot of tests and some treatments and am staying by her to help her out for a few days. She does not have TWC nor does she have wifi, in fact, she doesn't even have a computer. So, I've been tracking along on my droid and waiting for Don to develop or to set up wifi at her place which ever comes first.

I've heard a lot of people in the tropical world bitching that the NHC "waisted" a name on Cindy. Seriously?? I mean, really? Come on gang, get a life here. Though out at sea going towards the open Atlantic she still have strong winds and tropical storm weather and if you are traveling on a ship in that area I think you'd want the NHC to waste time giving advisories on her. It's just a run of the mill, boring storm out in open water. Many tropical systems are and they are often quite beautiful to watch even if we are a little bored with them.

There's a yellow circle up in the middle of the Atlantic at a low latitude focused on a wave that I like. I like it because it's got a nice, big pocket of moisture on it and one heck of a roll on the "juice loop" so keep watching.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Looking forward to seeing Don on the maps sometime soon. If not this wave, the one exiting Africa today is luscious.

Keep watching... be back soon... say a little prayer for my momma cause it's sad enough to have poor hearing but then to lose your eye sight :(


Besos Bobbi

Bret, Slowly Continues to Strengthen and Loop

If Bret were a living creature I suppose Bret would be a turtle.

He is just offshore yet so far away as he is very small and his windfield seemingly smaller. But, he does have a good circulation going and he will be going somewhere sometime soon.

Note the discussion from the NHC recently:

"BRET JOGGED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT FIXES AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI SUGGEST THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...
POSSIBLY COMPLETING A CYCLONIC LOOP. "

Keep watching and keep enjoying a quiet period without any landfalling storms here on our hurricane coastline.

Besos Bobbi

The Problem with Bret... Moving SE @ 2mph

The problem with Bret is he is a very S L O W moving storm that is currently moving slowly SE and enhancing rainfall chances over South Florida. A tropical storm warnings were hoisted fast for the Bahamas as... ummmm ... Bret formed IN the Bahamas.

Please note the end of the long red tail that is forming on Bret was over my house just a few hours ago making it look like a haunted house in late October.

Official text from the 11pm advisory:
BRET DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY..

That's the official cut and paste from the NHC.

Truth: With a small storm this weak, just off shore in late July anything could really happen. Most likely it will go out to sea. Easy money, good bet for Bret is to predict a fish storm.



Truth: Cold fronts (aka Trofs) are weak in late July.

Truth: Steering currents currently weak.

Truth: Steering currents can change fast.

False: Rain in South Florida this evening with wild thunder and light show was from Bret.

Truth: Rain in South Florida this evening wrapped into and towards Bret.

You see my point is.. you can see any argument you want to with a storm like Bret.

One person's "crazy" is another person's "genius" . . .

Truth: Bret has one T in his name ;) Now on that you can rely!!

So, most likely Mr. Slow Moving Bret will slowly drag himself off to sea and in doing so will drag his very wet, moisture trail across the state on it's way East. Can't promise that, but that would be the easy call.

Note: It's easy to say it won't be anything and will slowly slide out to sea than to go out on a very wet limb. And, by the way... it's supposed to be very wet in South Florida tomorrow for some reason . . .



Sweet Tropical Dreams

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UruXWui1EG8

Bobbi

Ps Can't you feel it circling honey, fins to the left, fins to the right and you're the only girl in town...

TD 2 Forms ... Soon to be Brett

Exact text from the NHC that is most relevant:

"INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD"

Southward "drift" and then out to sea... supposedly.

Graphics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203313.shtml?5day?large#contents

Note: The next set of models should be better than the current ones, as they will have better data from the recon. For now... drifting south, bit by bit, latitude by latitude and then out to sea... supposedly.

Stay tuned for what seriously may be Brett in a few hours.

Welcome to the season of 2011 with a storm that is practically sitting on top of South Florida.

LOCATION...27.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


Chow for now, Bobbi

Ps Reality Check Time:

Waiting for a weak trof in a few days to take it away from South Florida is kinda iffy in my opinion, personally IF this develops anything can happen until this trof is not called "weak" and it stops "drifting south" into warmer water. A lot of weak words used in the discussion, would rather have stronger, more sure words with a storm this close to land.

"INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELYTO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS
SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION."

You know what "crazy friend says" ??? Never use the "should" word... Stay tuned, developing ;)

NHC Sends in the planes... 40% Chance of Development East of Florida

40% and they are sending in the planes... that's a little strange. However, with the proximity to land it ups the ante I suppose and they figure they better get it right. Isn't everything in life about location? Well, this possible tropical cyclone is located close to land and we need "more better" models regarding whether it goes north or west... course I wouldn't mind if it went southwest as I could really use the distraction from more grizzly upsetting new stories. A wet tropical system would help quite a few areas thirsty for rain.

Keep watching, as the planes are out there and gathering data.

www.flhurricane.com has some good graphics and data, read up a bit on it and I'll be back later.

I do notice that the storms over South Florida have ramped up stronger than they have been the last several days. Air feels different today, can almost smell the tropical air out there.

Can you spell i n s t a b i l i t y ???

Besos Bobbi

Ps Got a good spin on radar:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0438&animate=true

Key West Writing Holiday . . . .

Picture above taken by BobbiStorm (that's me) at sunset this evening, after I felt the need to "RESET" my mind and get some writing done during the slow days of summer with nothing on the horizon but fluffy white clouds and sailboats.

Well, this is about as slow as it gets during the Hurricane Season. Something massive has to change for things to switch into tropical mode. Even the waves coming off of Africa are weak and not very wet. A lot of upper air flow in the Caribbean which makes it difficult for anything to form.

And, well when the storms don't start forming I get going and in this case went all the way down to Key West. I have some research to do for a friend and research and writing I need to do for myself so I hopped on the bus and spent the afternoon at the library and walking around town.

Feels so good to be down here, even if just for a day or two on a writing holiday. The more I write the better.

I did notice hurricane guides in Faustos put out by the Citizen and really wonderful plaques with hurricane maps on sale on Duval in what is almost the lobby of La Concha. If you have money and are in Key West and looking for some great decorative plaques that you could get lost staring at... run don't walk and bring lots of money. So hard to make up your mind, trust me.



So hard to figure out which one to buy, I would love to buy them all ;)



Go online and check their site out for yourself, if you can't get down to Key West any time soon.

www.montagekeywest.com

And, if you are in town there are copies of The Citizen's 2011 Hurricane Season Guide in which case you should definitely pick one up.



Love their logo:

Prepare
Protect
Survive
Rebuild

That just about says it all. That and am going to be doing research in various libraries tomorrow and enjoying the peace and quiet of Key West. Okay, it's a noisy, tourist town with people running about partying but at the moment it is providing an extremely wonderful rest from the hectic, whirlwind that is my family right now. And, thanks to a very wonderful friend who I am doing research for I get to relax in style while piecing notes together into some semblance that makes sense while watching TWC on mute.

Did you know it was Jim Cantore's 25th Anniversary with the TWC today? Wow... and I remember him from way back when ;)

Okay, going back to my research, tobacco, turn of the century and the Canes that got away to Galveston and other far away places.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Bobbi
(ps one more week and we should be tracking, that's what my sources tell me.. let's see if they are right or if they are wrong) Going to bed so I can wake up and catch the sunrise...here's a song to go with that picture I took this evening for a friend. Will just have to spell check tomorrow. That's a Scarlet update for 2011!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGlUnS0uk8Q&feature=related

While Miami Simmers in the Summer... www.canetalk.com is Hot and Stormy

This blog entry should be seriously named, "Why I love Hurricane City" which is really a statement and not a question.

Www.hurricanecity.com is an incredible website with an amazing database of valuable information for any storm chaser, tracker or anyone flirting with taking up tropical weather as a hobby. It has a wealth of knowledge on hurricane history as well as the dynamics of how to face a hurricane up close and personal.

It also has my very beloved message board that rocks my world 365 days a year but especially from June through November. Mind you, it does get a little rough right about now when many will eat their young or sacrifice them for a good named storm. Sorry, but sometimes you got to tell it like it is.. We get a little, mean and hungry in these days before the tropics pop and we are just about at that season. If I was a sailor I'd be worrying on this being the calm before the proverbial storm. Google the term: Horse Latitudes and you'll understand what I am talking about. Barely a breeze out there this morning as I walked around the canal, which is in my case a good 45 minute walk in the very hot, sticky, humid Miami morning.

Another incredible website that I love from the bottom of my heart is www.flhurricane.com which I think of as Cyclone's site but that's another horse of a different color.

This is my sample post from this morning's discussion on why Miami is living on borrowed time.

For more great posts and fun reading, go to www.canetalk.com anytime you want some tropical discussion during this extremely, excruciatingly slow time in the tropics. Won't last forever, so enjoy it now.

"Miami is Miami, south of the Lake and a different climate zone actually from the north and central part of the state. Miami is truly the tropics, it is the northernmost city in the Caribbean...

Now Tampa...and Jax are really clueless when it comes to Hurricanes.

Tampa thinks they will only get strong tropical storms riding up frontal boundaries late in the fall and Jax thinks there is some voodoo gypsy queen somewhere who put a curse on Marathon in the Keys and protected Jacksonville from a direct hit.

Both are untrue... both will get slammed by a major storm.

As much as Tampa was a boom town in the Roaring 20s the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921 probably did more so slow the boom than the Great Miami Hurricane did to break the boom in Miami.

Real historians will tell you the Boom died in the winter of 1925 when real estate sales did not match the advertised winter real estate selling season. Bad press up north, new laws regarding investing in...um swamp land that was sight un seen, a railroad strike the stopped supplies was further exacerbated by the Prinz Valdemar vessel turning over in the middle of Biscayne Bay prohibiting building supplies from getting in or out for months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane

Slowed the boom.... one can only imagine how much stronger the boom might have been in 1922 and 1923 had this storm not hit and scared investors.. Silly investors up north thought Miami was safe from real weather damage.

People do love the blame weather for everything however.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prinz_Valdemar

Truth is some big, Category 3 or 4 storm will make a hard left under an entrenched suddenly stronger Bermuda high ala Andrew and slam into Jacksonville... God help them... and the Red Cross.

As for Tampa... the clock is ticking.. . . . . . "

As for me... hitting the shower and going to the library to do some research and get some real writing done.

Love and Kisses... Besos Bobbi

Ps... Lychee Martinis, who knew... nice change for the Margaritta girl.

0% Chance, Yellow Circle but Zero Chances

Have a wonderful weekend everyone! The gurus at the NHC have given the area around Florida a yellow circle, however they also give is zero chances of development.

Possibly after the partying is done on Saturday, they will be ready to settle down and start tracking with real advisories. My Daddy always said, "God has a funny sense of humor" so as much as I would love to go to the ball it's Shabbos by me so am staying home. Maybe I'll have a drink with rum in it and pretend I am wishing away hurricanes from Miami and keeping the city safe from tropical disaster.

Actually, people should be very grateful for all the time and effort that goes into hurricane prediction and warnings. We are a week or two away from prime time in the tropics. So, buy the things on your Hurricane List, make sure your house is prepared, say a toast to a safe year and be glad that you can prepare for a hurricane. It's one of the few natural disasters you can prepare for... can't do that with Twisters or Volcanoes or Earthquakes.

Have a wonderful weekend, go out there and make it wonderful!!

Besos Bobbi

40% Chance of Something Forming in the Gulf

The National Hurricane Center has upped the chances for this tropically disturbed area to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to 40%. The Old "Time Will Tell" rule will apply here as there is a lot of shear from the Upper Level Low to it's west and it needs to fire up a CDO somewhere if it is going to be anything but rain.

Preliminary models form it and then take it north across Northern Florida and into the SE Coast through Georgia and the Carolinas. The possible track depends on which model you believe.

The loop below shows the squeeze play that is making it difficult to form, and yet is pumping up the moisture and enhancing the instability.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html



Note, the lesser respected models take it west towards drought stricken Texas. It would be a big blessing if it took that track, but storms don't follow early model tracks... they follow the patterns and steering currents that exist in an ever changing state of flux. Seriously, until you have a real center of circulation vs a lot of rain, you just don't know what it will or won't do.

I mean, the court can't even get it straight on the exact date that Casey Anthony will be released from jail. Seems nothing is certain in this messy world we live in, both meteorologically and politically speaking.

Someone just robbed my favorite Fresh Market tonight, I heard it on the news. Three criminals entered the store at closing. I mean seriously? In Aventura :( Very upsetting somehow. Not because some store selling high quality produce was robbed, but the peaceful illusion is shattered that life is safe anywhere. I mean if you can't be "safe" shopping at Fresh Market, where can you be safe?

As for me, I don't second guess court verdicts nor do I jump on tropical formation when I can't figure out where the center is ... other than low pressure drops by spaced out bouys. The spin in the Gulf of Mexico that is the Upper Level Low is easier to find. Already, they are whispering the words "sub-tropical storm" in the wind.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

You tell me if you can tell where the center is!

As for that area further to the south with the yellow circle, am watching that.

Miami was about as wet as it gets today. Spent the day with my younger brother driving around my old neighorhood out in West Miami. Something about driving up Ludlum on a rainy day which seemed so Deja Vu. West Miami, South Miami and Coconut Grove with a short trip to Cocowalk and a stop at the Shops of Bal Harbor where I read and read about old Miami and found out somethings that even I didn't know.

Makes you wonder what we don't know about the murder of Caylee Anthony.

It's always been my motto in life that if something doesn't make sense, whether it's weatherwise or otherwise...there is usually some piece of the puzzle that we have not found yet.

The weather is easier to figure out than unsolved murder cases and if you don't believe that, please remember no one has ever been tried for the murder of Jon Benet Ramsey and she would be a beautiful, young woman now had someone not killed her.

Personally, I'd rather track the tropics than the news.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi

Somethings Happening In The Tropics

I know because the really loud thunder woke me up and told me so. Well, I really know because the Tropical Update at TWC talked about possible tropical weather and there are yellow circles on the map again and models are imagining tropical tracks across previously quiet tropical waters. An "Invest" is going up on the area that is lingering over Florida and more information will be put up later as "more better" model information comes in and the guys at the NHC do some talking.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

There has been some talk of a storm forming close in to Florida and running up either side of the coast towards the Carolinas. This happens often in the tropics, one memorable storm comes to mind that formed from a A LOT of tropical weather than lingered around the Miami area is Hurricane Beth in 1971. Not so much memorable for tropical damage as much as personal damage as it screwed up an already screwy weekend in Miami for me and some close friends back in the summer of 71. Coastal runners are common early in the season but I would like to see something other than the quirky Canadian model getting excited. Mind you the Canadian model turns whirlpools in hot tubs on South Beach into minor landfalling hurricanes at the drop of a hat. So... something to look at but not yet ready for prime time in my opinion. It's possible, but is it probable?

So many visuals, so few named storms...enjoy the cartoon graphics:



Actually, I'm more curious on the low lying wave that is currently traveling across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. The extremely loud thunder is just the side effect of us being on the dirty side of a surface trough and a weak tropical wave that is charging up the atmosphere in Miami today. Morning thunder, a true sign of a switch in the weather. Lots and lots of rain cells all moving slowly north and west across the area. Why is this important? Well, because until recently nothing was moving north across the area and the onshore flow was strongly out of the East. Currently we have winds out of the SSE at 5mph. Something changed. And, when something changes suddenly you have to look at the loops, models and some old storm tracks and pay attention to the signs.

Further out in the Atlantic, the wave TWC just called "perky" is possibly the real thing if conditions out ahead of it are not too unfriendly. And, it has to lift and miss South America... got a nice twist starting down there and wondering if it wants to pretend it's Carnival time in Trinidad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
The models were playing with a system that would develops in a few days and takes rain towards Texas and the Gulf coast. It's too early to tell.



Speaking of quirky models, yesterday the Nogaps threw a curve ball towards Miami as a system formed and moved towards Miami around the 14th. Fun for weather fans who love to play weather games, but there is nothing there currently to substantiate that. We kind of like to see something form before we put up the Hurricane Flags, ya know? However, there is a pattern that is developing and if you watch the orientation of the High on all the models you will see there might be a weakness for such a track IF a storm did develop. Several models show this weakness, no models show a real tropical storm. But, in the weather business we look at patterns not crystal balls to make a forecast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2011070700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

So, keep watching and keep checking in because eventually something IS going to pop and that is not a forecast or a prediction, but a promise!

Hey it's not Dusty but it's still a Springfield. Funny how some things seem related but are they??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZP0pzDRtQw

You might want to loop this loop to the sounds of the that there song ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Besos Bobbi