East Coast of US/FL Coast...Watch the Wave That Will Be Hurricane Emily

The wave that most likely will become Hurricane Emily is now a big red circle at the National Hurricane Center's site. It's chances are up to 90% which is pretty much a "sure thing" in the tropical world. It had a chance earlier today, however the convection waned a little bit as these systems often do as they are in the formative state. Her banding and cyclonic spin are developing nicely and it's a beautiful storm to watch come together. Easy to say "beautiful" while it's out to sea and not yet a killer storm about to slam into some island nation or a part of the United States coastline. Beautiful is a relative term, to storm trackers it is for now... beautiful in it's early stage of formation.

Remember, this is a big system in what is called a "big pocket" and it is NOT a small storm. Big systems, as a rule, take longer to spin up than small systems. Then again, once they get going...they can intensify rather fast given the right environmental circumstances.



So far, the models insist on taking this system wnw and into "United States" hype range.... meaning that every part of the East Coast will most likely at some time worry on this storm. There is no immediate sign of recurving out to sea just yet. Some models take aim at South Florida (everywhere from Miami to Jax) and other models bend the track north enough to make the Carolinas worry. A few models slam it into the islands aka David or Hugo, before it bends its track north enough for the Carolinas to worry on. Truth is, it's just too early to tell what the track and intensity of the storm will be. However, it's not too early to see it will develop, will become the first hurricane of the season and will give forecasters and coastal residents days of nail biting over the next week.

Tomorrow is Sunday, unless you have an engagement party for one of the your kids to go to..and I do.... go out and stock up on hurricane supplies. Buy batteries, water, snack food, crayons for the kids (they don't need batteries) and whatever you think you might need to get through the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, because I got to tell you now... it may be coming at you sooner rather than later.

Loop the loop and watch:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ft.html

First, Emily needs to keep consistent strong convection in those beautiful, big sprawling bands of hers and next she needs to spin like a buzz saw and burn with an intensity only those real Atlantic hurricanes have that become the infamous storms. Til then, she is just a really, strong, big wave with the word "HURRICANE" spread all over her satellite image.

As for Don, he made landfall near Baffin Bay... he may have been the last the of quiet tropical storms of 2011.

As for Emily...stay tuned, she's getting her act together, slowly, steadily and that foretells of big things to come. If she is properly stacked...as in a well developed tropical system not the next Victoria Secrets model...she will make a name for herself, you can trust me on that.

The only thing holding her back for a bit, is a pocket of dry air out in front of her, once she gets past that and into warmer water, watch out. You can see that on the link below, the pocket of blue in front of her and you can watch her intensity go up and down, when you see a "roll" form, she's the real thing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

So fellow Miamians.. prepare for the hype on www.wsvn.com and if tracking hurricanes is your favorite form of entertainment ...enjoy, cause it's gonna get hyped!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Come Together Emily....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEo9Bh679wM