Is Tropical Storm Don Forming in the Caribbean?

The tropical wave that is about to enter the Caribbean has been upgraded to 20% chances and has developed beautifully during the day on IR Imagery. It's got a long way to go before it gets a name or even a designated TD number but it's got it's own model runs and is clearly visible in satellite imagery.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

NOTE: Do not trust early model runs as they can be far to the south or to the west, takes a while to get better data and for a real storm with a real center to develop before we know where this puppy goes. Until then, everyone will "wishcast" it to their local town or their worst home grown scenario. Surfers will wait with baited breath for stronger waves coming their way... keep waiting.

I do think there are higher odds than 20% for this storm to develop, especially the way it looks this afternoon.

Early Models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201190_model.html

Everyone from PR to Texas including the Florida Keys and Cuba should be watching this one, just in case something happens down the proverbial tropical road.

Got to tell you, absolutely love watching a storm come together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

As for me, hot and rainy in Miami today. Very hot. Hot, hot, hot!

Keep watching.... think this one may be Don!

Besos Bobbi

Or as an old boyfriend used to say... You may be right, I may be crazy... but if Don crashes your party you are gonna wish you were reading my blog, am sure of that!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi8Dzclcc8w