40% Chance of Something Forming in the Gulf

The National Hurricane Center has upped the chances for this tropically disturbed area to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to 40%. The Old "Time Will Tell" rule will apply here as there is a lot of shear from the Upper Level Low to it's west and it needs to fire up a CDO somewhere if it is going to be anything but rain.

Preliminary models form it and then take it north across Northern Florida and into the SE Coast through Georgia and the Carolinas. The possible track depends on which model you believe.

The loop below shows the squeeze play that is making it difficult to form, and yet is pumping up the moisture and enhancing the instability.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html



Note, the lesser respected models take it west towards drought stricken Texas. It would be a big blessing if it took that track, but storms don't follow early model tracks... they follow the patterns and steering currents that exist in an ever changing state of flux. Seriously, until you have a real center of circulation vs a lot of rain, you just don't know what it will or won't do.

I mean, the court can't even get it straight on the exact date that Casey Anthony will be released from jail. Seems nothing is certain in this messy world we live in, both meteorologically and politically speaking.

Someone just robbed my favorite Fresh Market tonight, I heard it on the news. Three criminals entered the store at closing. I mean seriously? In Aventura :( Very upsetting somehow. Not because some store selling high quality produce was robbed, but the peaceful illusion is shattered that life is safe anywhere. I mean if you can't be "safe" shopping at Fresh Market, where can you be safe?

As for me, I don't second guess court verdicts nor do I jump on tropical formation when I can't figure out where the center is ... other than low pressure drops by spaced out bouys. The spin in the Gulf of Mexico that is the Upper Level Low is easier to find. Already, they are whispering the words "sub-tropical storm" in the wind.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

You tell me if you can tell where the center is!

As for that area further to the south with the yellow circle, am watching that.

Miami was about as wet as it gets today. Spent the day with my younger brother driving around my old neighorhood out in West Miami. Something about driving up Ludlum on a rainy day which seemed so Deja Vu. West Miami, South Miami and Coconut Grove with a short trip to Cocowalk and a stop at the Shops of Bal Harbor where I read and read about old Miami and found out somethings that even I didn't know.

Makes you wonder what we don't know about the murder of Caylee Anthony.

It's always been my motto in life that if something doesn't make sense, whether it's weatherwise or otherwise...there is usually some piece of the puzzle that we have not found yet.

The weather is easier to figure out than unsolved murder cases and if you don't believe that, please remember no one has ever been tried for the murder of Jon Benet Ramsey and she would be a beautiful, young woman now had someone not killed her.

Personally, I'd rather track the tropics than the news.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbi