50% Chance for Development in the BOC.. Rainy Day in Key West

All eyes are on West Texas as the area in the Bay of Campeche moves slowly west towards the TexMex area, however the moisture blowing away from this system with the upper level winds and slamming the Florida Keys with one round after another of strong storms. Funny how weather works. We sit and watch where a "possible" system might go, yet areas not in it's path get more weather than where it is possibly headed. In fact, it's gonna be a rainy day over most of South Florida with increased chances of rain as tropical moisture is pumping into the area.

The same general area on the West Coast of Mexico is trying harder to develop than the one moving towards the Mexican border. Those winds may die down a bit tomorrow and this system could spin up over the next few days, get a recon flight to go out and check it out and just as it heads in there will be much discussion on whether it is a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm or just a lot of rain. Basically, it's late June in the Tropics......... par for the course if you know what I mean.

The funny part about the rain in South Florida is the upper level winds are pushing moisture over the area from the WSW and at the same time, the strong easterly breeze will bring in rain from the other side. Just one of those days, lots of sun and just as much rain. Find a nice place to sit a bit and relax and watch it fall down unless you want to race through the puddles. Yesterday was a banner day on Miami Beach, I shopped til I dropped in at Nespresso and relaxed a bit and collected my thoughts on paper. I'm not much of a shopper, but some sales are not to be ignored.

Meanwhile, I am watching the interaction between an Upper Level Low north of the Hispanola/Puerto Rico area that is acting up a bit, possibly triggered by a westbound tropical wave that got caught up in it temporarily. Time will tell, but worth watching especially since whatever it is...will move west closer to Florida at some point.

As for Texas, I pray they get rain but I don't know if this particular system will bring it to them. If only the moisture blowing off to the East was blowing off to the North... As in Real Estate, everything about tropical moisture is about location and Texas ain't getting any right now. Meanwhile, a really great line of storms are moving in from the Ocean over Key Largo and am thinking I should have gone down to Key West today, but no am waiting a few days before making any definitive vacation plans.

As for the planes, Hurricane Recon IS scheduled to go check out the area in the BOC and see just exactly what is or isn't going on later today.

Bottom line from the NHC is:

"WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...

THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT

HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS AND WINDS

WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. "

Note, I highlighted the fact that they are talking about Southeastern Mexico not Houston and Dallas.

If you do want to follow the weather in Texas and elsewhere there is a great Facebook page online that allows you to watch as the Texas Storm Chasers do there thing ;) It's a really GREAT weather site with good tropical updates.

http://www.texasstormchasers.com/2011/06/27/invest-95l-discussion-1/

Some other choice resources are given below that show the flow over the region as well as areas where tropical development could spin up.

Whatever happens, enjoy your weather today and get out there and enjoy the sunshine. Use sunscreen and drink lots of water, but enjoy the weather because as Joe says, "its the only weather you got" or...go somewhere that you enjoy the weather more is what Bobbi would say ;)

Smiling, Besos Bobbi

Ps.. links, loops and lattes

Loop the Loop and watch where the water vapor goes:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html



http://postcardsfromtheair.blogspot.com/2010/07/oh-la-la-nesspresso-in-miami-beach.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=archive/tropics/cent_amer&loopid=Central+America+Sat/Station+Plot