Somethings Happening In The Tropics

I know because the really loud thunder woke me up and told me so. Well, I really know because the Tropical Update at TWC talked about possible tropical weather and there are yellow circles on the map again and models are imagining tropical tracks across previously quiet tropical waters. An "Invest" is going up on the area that is lingering over Florida and more information will be put up later as "more better" model information comes in and the guys at the NHC do some talking.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

There has been some talk of a storm forming close in to Florida and running up either side of the coast towards the Carolinas. This happens often in the tropics, one memorable storm comes to mind that formed from a A LOT of tropical weather than lingered around the Miami area is Hurricane Beth in 1971. Not so much memorable for tropical damage as much as personal damage as it screwed up an already screwy weekend in Miami for me and some close friends back in the summer of 71. Coastal runners are common early in the season but I would like to see something other than the quirky Canadian model getting excited. Mind you the Canadian model turns whirlpools in hot tubs on South Beach into minor landfalling hurricanes at the drop of a hat. So... something to look at but not yet ready for prime time in my opinion. It's possible, but is it probable?

So many visuals, so few named storms...enjoy the cartoon graphics:



Actually, I'm more curious on the low lying wave that is currently traveling across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. The extremely loud thunder is just the side effect of us being on the dirty side of a surface trough and a weak tropical wave that is charging up the atmosphere in Miami today. Morning thunder, a true sign of a switch in the weather. Lots and lots of rain cells all moving slowly north and west across the area. Why is this important? Well, because until recently nothing was moving north across the area and the onshore flow was strongly out of the East. Currently we have winds out of the SSE at 5mph. Something changed. And, when something changes suddenly you have to look at the loops, models and some old storm tracks and pay attention to the signs.

Further out in the Atlantic, the wave TWC just called "perky" is possibly the real thing if conditions out ahead of it are not too unfriendly. And, it has to lift and miss South America... got a nice twist starting down there and wondering if it wants to pretend it's Carnival time in Trinidad.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
The models were playing with a system that would develops in a few days and takes rain towards Texas and the Gulf coast. It's too early to tell.



Speaking of quirky models, yesterday the Nogaps threw a curve ball towards Miami as a system formed and moved towards Miami around the 14th. Fun for weather fans who love to play weather games, but there is nothing there currently to substantiate that. We kind of like to see something form before we put up the Hurricane Flags, ya know? However, there is a pattern that is developing and if you watch the orientation of the High on all the models you will see there might be a weakness for such a track IF a storm did develop. Several models show this weakness, no models show a real tropical storm. But, in the weather business we look at patterns not crystal balls to make a forecast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2011070700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

So, keep watching and keep checking in because eventually something IS going to pop and that is not a forecast or a prediction, but a promise!

Hey it's not Dusty but it's still a Springfield. Funny how some things seem related but are they??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZP0pzDRtQw

You might want to loop this loop to the sounds of the that there song ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Besos Bobbi