Summer Sunday, Atlantic is Quiet. Do What You Love. It Won't Stay Quiet Forever. Trouble Could Bubble Up Close in GOM or Along East Coast .. New Orleans Drainage and Flooding History Link At the Bottom ... Musical Medley of Shakespeare, Taylor Swift and Camila Cabello

Nothing much is happening in the Atlantic Basin today.

Digging deeper into discussion from the NHC.

The paragraph below refers to the wave that exited Africa.

Most recent wave to come off of Africa...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

You can see how quiet it is in our basin.

The wave that came off does have legs.

But isn't expected to do much.

Models don't expect it to do much.

There has been weak support for a TD

That support comes and goes.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

You can loop this.

But the image shows it flaring up after coming off.

So worth watching.

Unless you have something better to do....

Maybe chasers are headed to the Pacific.

The Pacific is hot.

The Atlantic is not.

I think what is most interesting is that the N ATL is hot.

Maybe upwelling remains from last season in the MDR...

(that's a joke by the way... some will get it)

What worries me is this.

If something forms close to the East Coast.

There is abundant warmth for it to bubble.

Bubbling as in bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

It's an illusion to MacBeth.

You see MacBeth ran to the witches for help.

Seeing into the future.

It didn't really work out so well ...

Reminds me of people running after models.

Think the GFS EURO and CMC ....

If you are interested in Shakespeare go for it.

Funny Cliff Notes.

The reality is this is the time to enjoy what's left of summer.

Birds are chirping outside my window (it's annoying)

Cicadas sing suddenly before a rain storm (I hate them)

It's hot and humid kind of like Miami ...

It rained last night, heavy, wild but I was inside.

Cool, comfortable relaxing with my husband.

Enjoying the weekend.

One way or the other.

The truth is MacBeth is a really nasty story about a King who killed anyone in his way or who he thought was in his way. It's not as emotionally depressing as Hamlet but it's got great lines you remember forever. Hurricanes are like Shakespeare. They can be scary, horrible and tragic or they can just be beautiful storms spinning out in the Atlantic looking beautiful on visual imagery and falling apart as they get closer to the coast in the Fall and the Trof Queen rushes to meet and greet the said hurricane and most often the Trof wins and the hurricane goes safely out to sea. Not such a bad scenario, it helps the economy a bit as everyone rushes out to buy hurricane supplies and then feels victorious (or oddly let down) after the hurricane goes out to sea to Ireland or Scotland or some land far away in the North Atlantic. I could show a few clips of a movie from MacBeth but those scenes more scary and dark than a music video so let's just enjoy the music and party on as this is the end of Summer. How do I know that? Am I a wizard? Did I consult the three witches known now days as the Euro, the GFS or the beautiful Canadian? Nooooooooo I looked at the Calendar. 

Meteorological Fall begins on September 1st

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-astronomical-vs-meteorological-seasons-3443708

And when fronts begin to dip down there is a correlating oddity in that those west bound tropical waves begin to curve more to the WNW and head towards the siren song of the cold front. And, that's where we usually have our real battleground set up. With the Atlantic from say Jacksonville North all the way up to Maine being so ridiculously warmer than normal it will produce meteorological storms of possibly historical significance. It's not a good set up and New England and the Mid Atlantic will be very lucky if they finish the hurricane season without seeing a hurricane. Let's hope for some luck on that one. Usually they get lucky, but you can't always bank on Lady Luck being your friend.

Music videos often mirror classic tales. You can see the illusions here to Hamlet and MacBeth if you really want to go there or you can just enjoy the music and dance. I could have gone to a concert in Miami to see Taylor Swift and her fantastic oh my gosh opening act Camila Cabello but I'm in Carolina and said concert was on Saturday Night and started early and I do the Jewish Sabbath which ends late in the summer after sundown so no I didn't go. See if it had been winter when the sunset is earlier I could have would have gone. But some people sent me videos and I a blast and that's what life is about... being true to yourself, enjoying what you do and what you love. I had a wonderful "Shabbos" in Carolina yesterday doing my thing. I can do my thing another time in Miami if given the opportunity. I saw Willie Nelson perform at the Hard Rock with my brother one Sunday night for my birthday (his treat) and it was great, packed audience but less special effects ... Just Willie being Willie doing what he loves to do. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfg5-70X4bY 3 minutes in she talks on how shy she was as a little girl and how her life changed so much over time. How much has your life changed? Are you still who you were hiding in the closet singing Taylor Swift songs when your parents went to Publix or are you out on a stage in front of 60,000 fans or are you simply happy singing in the shower? 

Not much going on in the tropics. That will change but where or when I can't say for sure as I am not living and dying by the models nor am I going into the forest looking for witches to tell my future. I'm just biding my time, having a good time and enjoying watching the loops, the always beautiful water vapor loop showing subtle signs of what may or may not happen down the line.

Now look what you made me do? I went longer than expected but had fun writing and I enjoy writing so that's good. Going to enjoy the day knowing that down the road there will be more to talk about than waxing poetic on Miami girls who make it in the big time singing to their home town audience. She went to high school in Miami, Southwest Miami, so that makes her a home town girl. We never forget high school do we? Puts a stamp on our lives. Made in Miami :)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... a very good article to read if you like weather history and geology history and how they clash and work together or against each other below. New Orleans from the start had problems with flooding, as did Charleston and Key West, but it's a beautiful place to live so the early settlers found high ground and life went on. Fast forward a few hundred years and they tried to fix the flooding problems and the "city" expanded into areas it probably shouldn't have expanded into but there wasn't much urban planning back in the day and that's how we got to where we are now and what happened when Katrina a hurricane that formed close in just off shore of Miami and after making landfall in South Florida kept on going to other ports of call along the Gulf of Mexico; as many hurricanes have done such as Betsy and Andrew to name a few. 

https://www.nola.com/expo/life-and-culture/erry-2018/08/790f1ed00f4886/a-year-after-the-aug-5-flood-a.html

10 PM. Updated! Harvey Remnants at 70% of Reforming & The Eclipse. 92L and Florida. Models. Forecasts. Famous Writers That Look Like Harvey...

Just a note on models.

These could verify....

IF...

92L forms.. 

My concern at this point is not IF 92L becomes Irma before South Florida .... my concern is that the rain from a tropical wave that has traveled across the Atlantic (even a weak wave/Invest) can cause huge flooding problems in South Florida if the system moves towards Florida and steering currents fall apart for a few days. Eventually a front IS coming down, but until then it can take long drives going nowhere up and down A1A and I95 causing massive misery just being a strong, tropical wave. I have confidence that should anything close off and develop then the NHC would (in theory) post some sort of warning. The NWS posts watches and warnings but it's like a tree falling in the forest and no one is listening. So please watch this situation as the set up is ripe for locally heavy flooding and I sure hope all those drains are unclogged and the pumps are working. We will know soon enough. It could in theory slip up the Treasure Coast and ignore South Florida after all. It's a fluid situation and models do show development close in... as in home grown. Well like a transplanted tourist from Dakar.

...and if Harvey comes back to life.

Update on Ex Harvey and 92L

First 92L as it's moving towards Florida.

IF only the large African wave formed.

There's a big, huge ULL 

Black Cane there devouring it with shear.

But as for 92L... really impt to watch.

Just keep watching.

Knowledge is power..

This is what Jim said about that.

And you don't mess around with Jim.

He KNOWS when to keep his eyes on it!

So you better too!

NHC gave it 30% at 2 PM.

Hmnnn

Harvey below looks like a dark knight.

Moving West slowly.

As for Harvey and his remnants..

As Harvey Spins West...

The NHC has raised it's odds of reforming.

Currently up to 70%

RED Alert

Another way of looking at it is below.

The odds are in it's favor.

92L has odds too.

Lower odds but ... watching.

And why wouldn't you?

92L could form and be Irma.

Or at the very least #PTCTEN 

(long day are we on ten yet?)

(I had some wine ..wink wink)

Models show Florida...

Twice actually.

Moves over Florida.

Moves back into the Atlantic?

Maybe 92L had some wine..

...the models definitely are drunk!

Told you before..

Can't make this stuff up.

Over the very warm waters of the Bahamas..

..the Gulfstream.

Irma could start dancing.

Great dress... I want it.

Looks very like Evita there.

See scene from Evita below!

Take my word on it.

I studied acting when young.

Musical comedy.

Set, dance, make up.. 

... very Evita-ish

I know patterns.

I know theater.

I know weather.

So I had a really wonderful day today going to the Farmers Market In Raleigh (don't laugh) which is like a fair but without the noise and everyone is friendly tasting fresh figs from the Outer Banks, peaches from the sandhills, German and Cherokee Tomatoes from Johnston County and Scuppernong grapes in season finally. And when you see figs and scuppernong grapes around these parts you know summer is almost over. Bought Dixie Lee Shelled Peas to cook with rice and greens later this week. 

Then we went to Trader Joes to get some Empire Kosher Chicken. Really. Trader Joes is having a 50th Birthday Party in their stores. Lots of food to sample and by the way wine is involved, you might want to check it out. I remember Trader Joes from Los Angeles when I lived there in the 80s...who knew they'd be what they are today. Yes, give me coffee and wine and I'm a happy camper, especially after being on a sugar rush from the peaches, watermelon and scuppernong grape tastings before Trader Joes.

Again red is the theme of the day.

Harvey is red again.

Happy Birthday Trader Joe's

50 years!

As for Irma...she is yet to be born.

Needs to form...

Keep watching.

In that vein who knows what will be with 92L that the NHC is still following across the Atlantic despite having polar vortex streamers shot at it with blocking by King Tutt. I mean it's still plugging WNW towards Florida or the Carolinas.. or both.

As for me I bought me an Eclipse viewing device. No one sent me a pair of glasses :( And as someone round here wants me to wear hats more often. I'm modeling the latest in Eclipse Fashion for y'all. Supposedly you take it off your head, put it above your head (not with your head blocking it) and then put paper down or just look at the pavement and the shadows will show you the sun as bites are taken out of it by the moon's shadow; like the bites of peaches and watermelon being served at the Farmers Market. Oh and according to the big board that shows temperature there it said it was 100 degrees but pretty sure the NWS won't agree. As it's the State Farmer's Market I think they should get a vote.

I'll let you know how this science experiment comes out tomorrow... 

If you are going to be in Raleigh

And it's not the dead of Winter.

Go to the Farmer's Market.

2 Incredible restaurants.

Free samplings.

Friendly talk.

Candy.

Besos BobbiStorm

Continue reading for your eclipse forecast!

Starting off with the Eclipse.

Totality is less than 3 minutes.

Good luck!

Choose your spot wisely..

Now on to the Tropics.

Below is a REAL Image of Harvey.

Wow, you can't make this stuff up. It's the stuff great plays and award winning movies are made of in Hollywood except this is Hurricane Season and of late it's prone to great come backs and has been named storms. You know Sean Connery was hot, then he wasn't and then he did a comeback like Frank Sinatra when he was older. Happens. I don't want to give away the ending here just yet so I'll just mention that the storm with many names (now Ex Harvey) is still out there, traveling west bound and ignoring it's reviews. Think of it as disconnected from social media; it doesn't watch Morning Joe or The Five and pays no attention to what they say about him at the NHC. It just keeps on doing it's thing. He's sort of like a great writer who holes himself away from the world to write a masterpiece. Tennessee Williams had a small studio on his property and no one was allowed to disturb him until he came out. He woke up every morning, went for a swim, came back and wrote. I became friends with the woman who took care of his sister who lived with him; I can confirm that legend as she was not allowed to disturb him when he was writing.

Great things come from isolation sometimes.

I'm not sure how William Shakespeare got so much done back in those Elizabethan Days where it took forever to get dressed before leaving the house but perhaps he had a writing getaway like Tennessee Williams did. In fact I'm really thinking we should take a DNA Ancestry test today from some rain in Harvey to see if he could be distantly related to Old Will as I'm seeing a strong resemblance myself. 

And soon, if Harvey survives the hate campaign against him from the NHC, he will go off and fight the wind shear just as the Man of La Mancha fought with the windmills. He needs to be a bit more macho I think and bulk it up a bit more for them to give him back his name officially. Currently he is trying to get some sort of official status from the NHC, but will they give it to him? Oh such drama... Harvey really needs a good soundtrack.

The shear shown below is his windmill.

There is a sweet spot there if he can get there.

I'm a little concerned what the NHC is up to..

They write a script every day that few read.

Sort of like a soap opera has a bible.

When one character dies...

...soon a new one comes to town.

???

In their 8 AM Discussion.

Talking about DEAD HARVEY.

They introduce a new wave they "found" 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT

+shtml/201211_MIATWDAT.shtml?

Note discussion below highlighted.

I suppose they have Xray vision.

Or maybe this is a magic trick?

I'm not sure what they are talking about.

The new convection is from the old Harvey.

Are they trying to imply otherwise?

I see some showers near Trinidad...

Their map is equally confusing.

Close up of the map above.

Looks like Harvey to me.

I recognize the mustache...

Officially Ex Harvey has a 60% chance of forming.

50% in the 2 day even.

Today's 5 day looks as if the CMC went on a diet. Same 3 systems they have been showing however not as hearty as the Canadian Model has been showing them on every model run. Maybe they meant East of Florida? I'm sure with time the plot will thicken and we will know what they are implying in their Tropical Discussion. Link is shown below so you know I didn't make this up.

Satellite image below of the 3 above.

It is worth noting the GFS doesn't see these three systems, but does eject a Low off of Florida around the 25th and it slides NE along the SE Coastline. Perhaps 92L gets in the GOM after crossing Florida and then swinging back? It's a possible plot line, not sure if that will work or a totally new character shows up but we aren't talking hurricane so really who cares? It's a model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

On the 25th the EURO has Harvey in BOC.

And on the 27th a similar SE Low forms 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=

2017082000&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=0

Just go to www.tropicaltidbits.com for the model runs.. it's easiest. Interactive game, new updated version every twelve hours or so.. Or just go to www.spaghettimodels.com and do the Cliff Notes version. It's 2017.. "it's all good!!"  "No worries" (this is not a time that will produce great #classic lit..it seems)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Currently Harvey is an entity.

Moving W then WNW.

Maybe makes it to BOC.

As for 92L...

Moving towards Florida.

In some form..

Rain?

TD?

Wave?

Does it get a name?

See the image below.

The next name is Irma.

The tweet above is a good one.

Good App.

What is in an eclipse I ask?

I ponder...

I wonder..

If you believe bad things come from an eclipse then you might want to blame that on Mark Twain who may have started a lot of the legends in his story. Yes there is a link.

http://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/174/a-connecticut-yankee-in-king-arthurs-court/3049/chapter-6-the-eclipse/

Hmnn . . . 

Mark Twain was interestingly born when Halley's Comet appeared and died when it reappeared. Something to think on if the models are giving you a headache and you are tired of the nonstop hyped coverage of the Great American Eclipse or as they are calling it here in Carolina the Great Carolina Eclipse ;) I mean even Nick Saban is talking about the eclipse and the coverage by the TWC. See he's a weather nerd it seems. See Mark Twain below, another distant relative of Tropical Storm Harvey it seems if pictures don't lie... 

As for the official forecast for tomorrow.

The eclipse.

Just remember while we all go crazy about the eclipse and the NHC debates whether to upgrade Harvey or not .. the weather previously associated with Harvey is moving West. 92L is moving WNW towards South Florida and may cross Florida or may curve up along the coast. 93L is out there somewhere... trying to get attention and a supporting role of any kind in this tropical drama. If you believe they put a man on the moon..........you'd think they could get a better group of models to help with this forecasting thing... Just my thoughts. Have a wonderful Sunday. I'll update as new plot twists pops up suddenly or are advertised on the ongoing coverage of the Great Eclipse.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm... follow me on Twitter for live updates in real time.

Oh and if Charleston doesn't get to see the eclipse and you drove in traffic there just to see it, relax and have some good eats. One of the best parts of the South to eat your way through as well as awesome scenery so all will not be lost. I'll be in Raleigh with my handy hand grater seeing what I can see without totality.

Ps... Have a wonderful weekend and whatever you do tomorrow...do not look directly at the sun, really. They showed a great idea on TWC earlier... you can take a grater and position it in front of you with the sun above it and it will show you lots of little eclipses images all day. If you only have a food processor you may be screwed on that one :(  well unless you still have the grater attachment and don't only have the S blade. A lesson to the NHC...never discard things you may later need.

Bonus song if you got all the way down here...