UPDATED! Invest 99L in Atlantic Heading Towards Caribbean. Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the North Atlantic. Are There Signs in the Atlantic That Soon There May Be Something to Watch? Models Imply... Climo Implies... Waiting...Flooding Trinidad and Tobago From Last Tropical Wave

Invest 99L Forms in the Atlantic.

Headed towards the Islands.

Caribbean Bound?

And like that there's something to watch.

NHC watching it.

Models running.

20% in 5 days.

Mike's site is filled with maps and cones.

www.spaghettimodels.com

99L will move W to WNW.

Ernesto Headed N and then NE.

Models below for Invest 99L

www.tropicaltidbits.com

The issue as always with any system in this location is that shear is usually strong at the gateway to the Caribbean. As August moves into September this shear naturally lessens making the Caribbean a more possible location for tropical trouble. Usually if a storm has not formed before the Islands it's hard to get it going later though often storms like Harvey limp along until they get to warmer water and better conditions. Hurricanes like Harvey are rare and don't come along every year, it's just an example and reminder. This is the wave I mentioned earlier today that throughout the day has grown in size convective wise and has become harder and harder to ignore. Note not all yellow circles become Invests immediately so that should be a point of reference to concerns down the road if this develops.

As I said earlier today at the bottom of this blog...

...the last wave slammed into Trinidad and Tobago.

Much flooding was a result of that wave.

You can see 99L entering stage right below.

Another view below.

Stay tuned and keep reading.

Below Ernesto discussion is wave discussion IE 99L

You can see the Mimic Loop below.

But this image shows how the environment is moist..

..and currently favorable to future development.

That's a solid ITCZ above.

The loop is at the end of this blog from earlier today.

When I was discussing the wave that became 99L

Track below.

Where is it going?

Far away from the East Coast.

On it's way to England, Ireland and beyond.

It's been very warm in North Europe this summer.

All you really need to know is below.

On the map for a few days.

It's a statistic.

That means we move on to the F name.

Lot's of named storms this year...

...yet nothing much to write home about.

That's good for the Islands who are rebuilding this year.

Actually blue tarps cover homes in Florida still.

Note this isn't expected to be a Tropical Storm.

Subtropical to Extratropical.

It's clear up there in the North Atlantic.

Will the luck of the Caribbean Islands continue?

Looking due South o  Ernesto you see another area.

They almost mirror each other in ways.

It's worth noting that the last strong wave...

... made landfall in Trinidad and Tobago.

We didn't hear much about it.

We've been dealing with flooding in the Mid Atlantic Region.

But even without a name tropical waves cause misery.

Patterns in the short term repeat.

Eventually waves become Invests.

Invests often become Tropical Depressions.

August tuns into September.

In the Miami area we watch the Caribbean.

We are the gateway to the Caribbean.

Many of our friends come from the Islands.

Much of Miami is made up of people who came from there.

Phil Ferro reflects this in his tweets.

He and others are always watching the Caribbean Weather.

This is what we call a Wave Train.

Before named storms we have tropical waves.

You can see two things in the loop above.

The tropical lifeline in the N ATL for Ernesto

The active ITCZ moving West...

Part of it lifts WNW/NW towards Cuba/Florida/Bahamas

The beat goes on....

Even if models don't "see" anything forming.

Waves become stronger, time moves on.

Keep Watching.

The GFS is showing lowered pressures down the line.

Climo almost always wins.

I'll admit I thought playfully Ernesto should be a Caribbean Storm.

But in truth Climo shows it's face around August 25th.

MJO is moving into that area for a brief visit.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Prayers for those in Italy trying to dig through the debris to find the bodies and find the reason that the bridge there fell down. Bridges don't usually fall down except in nursery rhymes that were really allegory for political discussion. King George =  Humpty Dumpty. It's scary, terrifying and sad that this beautiful bridge simply "fell down" during a "violent storm" and much has been made of the weather. Could the weather or a lightning strike specifically hit a weakened part of the bridge or is this an explosion as some have said vs lightning. People argue online the poor maintenance of structures in Europe due to EURO budget restraints, mean Tweets by a politician in Germany with regard to the tragedy in Italy; even whispers of terrorism have been heard in the wind as usually someone goes there. What really happened will be figured out down the road but for now they have moved from rescue to recovery of bodies. 

Could weather really have played a part in this or was it a coincidence? 

Hurricane Season and FIU Pedestrian Bridge - ABC Construction during Hurricane Season. Hurricane Irma. Just Wondering...

Damage at FIU shown below.

On a rainy cold night in Raleigh during a thunderstorm that reminds me more of a Miami Monsoon than Raleigh rain I'm thinking on the Hurricane Season and the construction of the FIU Pedestrian Bridge Collapse. The possibility of snow flakes falling tomorrow morning here keeps taking a back seat  in my mind as I wonder on how far into actual construction they were in September of 2017 when Hurricane Irma moved towards the Miami area. Yes, Irma made landfall in the Lower to Middle Keys, however the Miami area was slammed with torrential rain, wind and debris flying in the wind.  I wonder just how far along they had gotten when Irma slammed into Miami. I'll wonder on the possibility of snow flakes tomorrow morning if and when I see them. I'm wondering tonight on what things might have gone unseen during the early stages of the construction of the FIU Pedestrian Bridge.

I know most large construction sites do not take the materials away and store them safely somewhere else. I watched the slow construction of the Overseas Highway new bridge and noted how even when it seemed a storm was nearing the area the construction material stayed where it was and to be honest they got lucky and no strong storm tangled with that project.

But this project began in the months before Hurricane Irma and a very busy, wet hurricane season. I'm sure the site was inspected but when and how long did it take to inspect the materials? No one was working for a good week in many places as debris had to be picked up, roads cleaned and electricity restored. Miami wasn't exactly working normally during that time.

So I keep thinking about the construction of the bridge and how far along they were when Irma slammed into the Miami area.

Note the picture below taken from Google. As you travel down Tamiami Trail you can see most of the ABC Bridge Project behind tarp and signs that show it as a "construction site" ...

FIU was busy also with flooding at the Biscayne Bay Campus. They were wonderful with updates on how things were progressing towards normal but nothing really was normal in September of 2017. Even Tamiami Trail Campus far from Biscayne Bay had flooding problems as well as debris that was blown by the storm's winds every which way as the song goes. Irma was not fast moving Andrew with it's precise buzz saw shape where damage was kept to a small area where the wicked eye wall sliced Miami Dade County into two parts; the part with the damage and the part where there was total destruction. Irma lumbered along after a wet period and the damage path for Irma stretched from Cuba to the Florida Keys all the way North to Jacksonville that had historic flooding.

Way before Irma made landfall...

Miami was getting copious amounts of rain.

Bands lashed Miami ...

...when it was on the coast of Cuba.

Then Irma obliterated the State of Florida.

How in any way did the hurricane impact the construction site I wonder. How far along were they? The picture above taken by Google in August the month before shows the Accelerated Bridge Construction had begun. In late October another system soaked the Miami area adding insult to injury known as Tropical Storm Phillipe. 

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/article181498926.html

I tell myself there were inspections and they took into account what might happen if the project sat for days, maybe longer waiting for inspections and for workers to be able to get back to work with everything else that was going on during a State of Emergency. Do we know for sure? What one variable could have impacted the project that did not impact other similar projects constructed the same way? I wonder. As I look at that picture above and see it how it looked in August I wonder how it looked after the hurricane. And, when I look at the picture my son took below while stopped at the traffic light admiring the beauty of the construction I'm grateful he wasn't at the wrong place at the wrong time. It was just a balmy, beautiful Miami evening and he was at the right place to admire the beauty of a bridge that would we thought would take FIU another step into the future. 

FIGG designs beautiful bridges that have been built everywhere ... far beyond the reaches of Florida politics. They do beautiful work and the MCM construction company has been around for a long time. Accidents happen that's why they are called accidents. But sometimes there's one or two variables that are part of the equation and I'm wondering tonight just how far along they were in construction of any part of the bridge when Hurricane Irma began to douse Miami with record rain, flooding and destructive winds.

The picture below my son took.

A night or two before it collapsed.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

#FIUStrong

https://news.fiu.edu/2017/09/hurricane-irma-updates1/115044

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/FIU-Students-Staying-in-Campus-Shelter-After-Dorm-Building-Damaged-by-Hurricane-Irma-445477903.html

https://news.fiu.edu/2017/09/tree-preservation-plan-helped-campus-landscaping-survive-hurricane-irma/115513

Weather. Hurricane Season? Everybody's Got An Opinion. Update on FIU Bridge Collapse...

"breakdown of the vast subtropical high across northern Africa is allowing equatorial moisture to rise into higher latitudes. Indeed, the area from the Sahel all the way into South Africa is in a humid regime, with multiple cases of mostly diurnal thunderstorms (strongest signal now just above the Equator). If this pattern is maintained through spring, predictions for an active tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Basin stand a better chance of verifying"

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove is a great read when it comes to weather world wide with a keen eye to geography that many young mets seem to miss while getting lost in modeling and computer graphics. I love modeling, computer graphics and young mets, but seriously Larry's understanding as a meteorologist of the subtle variations and complications that occur across one region and more so how they link up, connect and interact with each other in both the short term and the long term is a thing of beauty. Reading his weekly discussion or topical updates if something big happens suddenly helps put the whole picture together in a way that few mets are able to convey as well. Long run on sentence but necessary to try and begin to explain how wonderful Larry Cosgrove is at explaining all parts of the weather forecast.

I've been watching Africa. Every day there are subtle changes going on from one pattern to another. Day by day it's more common to see clusters of thunderstorms departing Africa into the Atlantic at very low levels. Over time, over months those clusters of thunderstorms we call "tropical waves" climb in latitude as the Hurricane Season approaches. Before June 1st or even late August when the African Tropical Waves become players this process starts with baby steps, with baby clusters of waves working their way west becoming a steady reminder that things are slowly changing.

Not ready for prime time.

But still beautiful as always.

It's a process.

Nothing happens over night.

Currently there are cyclones...

...but not in our part of the world.

Some people have talked on their sites about early predictions for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I think it's a bit too early to go there, but I will soon enough. So much depends on things that have not totally played out and the biggest player has not shown it's hand yet. Not going to go chase the MJO nor as am I going to prophesize making predictions in March about June 1st is basically just that. I can say I do think it will be another active hurricane season with possibly multiple landfalls. However, how strong any given hurricane will be where at what point and when is too soon to say.

http://hurricanecity.com

Jim Williams from the Hurricane City website discusses what cities are most likely to be impacted and I'll go with that being the real priority. And, while he has his own way of coming to his predictions I'll say that we are too deep still in a winter like pattern with no clear end in site to start waxing poetic on the Hurricane Season. What I can wax poetic on is the need to buy things when you see them on sale now that have a long shelf life and can be used if something is springs up suddenly off the coat of Florida or in the Gulf or Mexico and threatens to make an early landfall. Late season slow moving cold fronts that die slow deaths and dawdle over the Gulf of Mexico and the North Florida border are notorious for creating havoc in May along the Florida, Alabama coastline. 

Currently in Raleigh it's a see saw between using the heat at night once in a while or putting on the AC once in a while during the daytime. I have some allergy problems so I am not prone to opening up the windows wide and letting in the pollen. And, as we had a very warm February the pollen started early this year. Then it rained which helped and then it got cold again and then......     Every day is like a Mystery Package these days. Predicting the 24 hour forecast is harder than saying what it will be like in April in North Carolina. Not that I am planning on being here much this April...  run towards the snow and hide from the pollen is my plan. Got places to go.. people to see.

The forecast for this weekend was rain off and on and more often on than off. Today it never really did rain and tomorrow it's presence has been taken out of the forecast changed over to "intermittent cloudiness" with a chance of rain. Time will tell rules this question.

As for the pedestrian bridge collapse in Miami time will tell that story. It's easy to get lost in headlines about cracks and who is responsible while the investigation has just begun. Easy to discount the New York Times article about cracks that were found in the cement on Thursday a few hours prior to the collapse but someone I know well who was under investigation once for something big told me the NY Times knows what they are doing. I may not like their slant on stories and constant editorializing but when it comes to their investigations they often do know what they are talking about. For now it's about the recovery of bodies, extraction of flattened cars and the beginning of multiple investigations. 

I'm a Miami girl and when away WSVN is usually my go to source for local Miami news; KTLA from my LA days. https://wsvn.com Currently six people have died and they hope no more are found. Currently no more are missing but one never knows until this tragedy is totally over. 

Officially that's the word above.

Below shows the story in one picture.

That was a car at one time.

Sobering. Sad.

This is the map of my life.

To the far left is the campus of FIU where the NHC is located. Few people will mention that will they in their discussion on FIU and the bridge collapse? Along the Expressway that runs to the West of FIU is the NHC. The NOAA library where I've spent many hours doing research is at that location. On the map above is the University I graduated from and the High School I graduated from ... the Westchester Shopping Center I grew up hanging out at and just to the right of the map is the house where I lived for part of my childhood. The street that is to the North of the FIU campus is 8th Street AKA Tamiami Trail AKA "The Trail" and on the North side is the town of Sweetwater. The area to the South of the Trail is known as "Westchester" and my Middle School is just to the right of the map. My life for years was that grid shown above. My mother was never one to stay in a house for too long. Her older sister, my Aunt, told me once she moves the sofa from the North to the South to the East to the West and after moving into the center of the living room she moves to another house. That pretty much sums it up my early childhood. At some point we moved to Miami Beach where I lived through my college years commuting to FIU or sleeping over at my Aunt's house in Little Havana aka "The Roads Section." Miami has lots of AKA names for the same neighborhood. Miami Beach became my world after that for years and years. Even Jimmy Buffett used the Tamiami Trail in his lyrics.

NHC hiding behind the palm trees.

They are sneaky like that ;)

My son attends FIU as does my nephew. My daughter-in-law attended FIU and got her Masters there ...  my son is graduating this year with his Masters in Architecture. My brother went to FIU and graduated from there. Half of Miami seemingly has gone to FIU. Once it was the small little school opening up in South Florida and it currently is one of the largest State Universities in the whole country.  Many of the dorms and cheaper apartments are on the North side of FIU in Sweetwater as are several school buildings. Finding a safe way to cross the Trail was a big priority as many people have died trying to cross it on foot. My son says there is a plaque on a little bridge over the Tamiami Canal that lists the many names of students killed trying to cross over the Trail. This bridge was built to solve the problem, to forget forward towards a commitment to help bridge FIU with Sweetwater in many ways. 

 https://cee.fiu.edu/research/facilities/wall-of-wind/

FIU is a great public institution of higher learning. That's one reason I find the Governor's rush to detach himself from the University to be kind of pathetic. He basically said this was not his problem being Governor of Florida, but it was FIU's problem. Spoiler Alert for the Governor but FIU is a part of his State University system and all the various agencies involved were also involved on this project in some way. If it was the UM where my father went to college, a private University, okay but noooo this is a something he as Governor is connected to and hopefully he has figured that out. Nice to rush in for sound bites and photo ops but it's Florida International University part of the same system as FSU and UF.

Tamiami Trail is the road that was built across the Everglades to connect Tampa to Miami or possibly vice versa. It's the road my family took when they went back and forth to visit the relatives up in Tampa. It's now an 8 lane highway and one of the busiest traveled highways in South Florida. So the bridge was built in a manner that FIU has been very involved with known as Accelerated Bridge Construction. Why you ask is that important? It's used to replace bridges in large metropolitan areas that need to be rebuilt yet because they are so heavily traveled it's impossible to shut them down for construction. This method has been used all over to shorten the time that shuts down heavily traveled roads but to put up better, stronger bridges. In America as in many places parts of our infrastructure are always in need of repair. But when we go from one Model T Ford to an 8 lane highway it's a lot harder to get long term projects that are needed approved. No one wants old, bad bridges but no one wants important highways shut down in areas where there are few alternative roads. So the construction is done in parts just to the side of the road seen below in a recent Google Maps picture.

The dorms in Sweetwater on the left.

FIU main campus on the right.

Now is the time for prayers.

Now is the time for investigations.

Time will tell.

My radar tonight as I type this post.

So yeah back to weather. We just had a short thunderstorm in Raleigh. I'm typing in the dark with the lights off so I can watch the light show through the window and get the full effects. Does that mean it will snow in the next 10 days? Did this thunderstorm sneak in under the wire as Spring starts in a few days after the Spring Solstice. Old wives tale... 'if you hear thunder in winter you will have snow within 10 days" or so they say. Time will tell. Maybe up by the Virginia-NC border?

Oh look at that.

Possible snow in 5 days?

Check that out.

So much for old wives tails.

Now you know what people did...

...without Spaghetti Models ;)

Getting closer and closer...
...to Hurricane Season.

Thanks Mike.
 You're a man for all seasons.



From Tampa to Miami.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Even Jimmy Buffett knows..

Hope it snows before I go back to Miami.. 

FIU Pedestrian Bridge Collapse. Miami Tragedy. Thoughts from a FIU Graduate with An Incredible Son Who Attends FIU

So many tragic ironies in the tragedy of the FIU Pedestrian Bridge Collapse. Yes I used a form of tragic twice in a sentence as this is the most tragic story on so many levels. I'm into redundancy today. The bridge over the 8 lane highway was designed to save lives and connect the general FIU campus with the City of Sweetwater where there are several FIU buildings as well as several dormitories. There have been many deaths previously where students trying to get across the large, busy highway that always seems busy have died. In Miami "rush hour" is from 6 AM until 8 PM basically; it's an all day event. 

My son attends FIU and he is working on a Masters of Architecture. My son loves photography and takes photos constantly capturing all angles from shadows to reflections to well... every little detail he captures and records. He's a deep thinker. He and much of FIU was looking forward to this bridge's completion and we've talked on it often the last few weeks. He was at attendance at a special ceremony this past weekend when the bridge was finally lifted into position. It was not finished, but it was on it's way towards completion.

Time is short here and I just wanted to record the irony and sad tragic event on the blog today. Worried on shutting down the major street known affectionately in Miami as Tamiami Trail .... they chose a manner of construction that has become popular in large busy cities of late. Something went horribly wrong. 

The close up pictures are too graphic to show.

Everyone in Miami wonders on hurricanes.

How will a bridge stand up to a Cat 5 Hurricane?

The artist rendering below is what it should have looked like.

Beautiful.

What would have been a beautiful walk...

But now it's in ruin, laying across the highway.

Crushing cars below.

The death toll will go higher.

Horrific. 

Category 5 Level Horrific.

To put this in perspective my son took this picture the other night while stopped under the bridge at the light where the cars shown above were stopped waiting for it to turn green. He grabbed the moment to snap this picture and admire the bridge still under construction. Normally I don't post his pictures, but he posted it on Instagram so I'm showing it here. 

Yeah.... 

There's been hours of discussion.

I've watched Miami News online.

CNN moved on to Stormy whats her name... 

Back to politics..... pathetically.

But in Miami the tragedy goes on.

We will soon find out ....

...how many people were in those crushed cars.

Pray for their families.

Stay #FIUSTRONG 

Because FIU is an incredibly wonderful school.

What was meant to be a wonder...

...has become a sad, tragic story.

It's a Miami story it seems.

So I'm writing about it.
It's personal to me.

I'll write more when I have time.

A good article below details the many details.

http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/tns-accelerate-bridge-construction-florida-pedestrian.html

Besos BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter

FIU Graduate.