A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
UPDATED! Invest 99L in Atlantic Heading Towards Caribbean. Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the North Atlantic. Are There Signs in the Atlantic That Soon There May Be Something to Watch? Models Imply... Climo Implies... Waiting...Flooding Trinidad and Tobago From Last Tropical Wave
The issue as always with any system in this location is that shear is usually strong at the gateway to the Caribbean. As August moves into September this shear naturally lessens making the Caribbean a more possible location for tropical trouble. Usually if a storm has not formed before the Islands it's hard to get it going later though often storms like Harvey limp along until they get to warmer water and better conditions. Hurricanes like Harvey are rare and don't come along every year, it's just an example and reminder. This is the wave I mentioned earlier today that throughout the day has grown in size convective wise and has become harder and harder to ignore. Note not all yellow circles become Invests immediately so that should be a point of reference to concerns down the road if this develops.
As I said earlier today at the bottom of this blog...
...the last wave slammed into Trinidad and Tobago.
Much flooding was a result of that wave.
You can see 99L entering stage right below.
Another view below.
Stay tuned and keep reading.
Below Ernesto discussion is wave discussion IE 99L
You can see the Mimic Loop below.
But this image shows how the environment is moist..
..and currently favorable to future development.
That's a solid ITCZ above.
The loop is at the end of this blog from earlier today.
When I was discussing the wave that became 99L
Track below.
Where is it going?
Far away from the East Coast.
On it's way to England, Ireland and beyond.
It's been very warm in North Europe this summer.
All you really need to know is below.
On the map for a few days.
It's a statistic.
That means we move on to the F name.
Lot's of named storms this year...
...yet nothing much to write home about.
That's good for the Islands who are rebuilding this year.
Actually blue tarps cover homes in Florida still.
Note this isn't expected to be a Tropical Storm.
Subtropical to Extratropical.
It's clear up there in the North Atlantic.
Will the luck of the Caribbean Islands continue?
Looking due South o Ernesto you see another area.
They almost mirror each other in ways.
It's worth noting that the last strong wave...
... made landfall in Trinidad and Tobago.
We didn't hear much about it.
We've been dealing with flooding in the Mid Atlantic Region.
But even without a name tropical waves cause misery.
Patterns in the short term repeat.
Eventually waves become Invests.
Invests often become Tropical Depressions.
August tuns into September.
In the Miami area we watch the Caribbean.
We are the gateway to the Caribbean.
Many of our friends come from the Islands.
Much of Miami is made up of people who came from there.
Phil Ferro reflects this in his tweets.
He and others are always watching the Caribbean Weather.
This is what we call a Wave Train.
Before named storms we have tropical waves.
You can see two things in the loop above.
The tropical lifeline in the N ATL for Ernesto
The active ITCZ moving West...
Part of it lifts WNW/NW towards Cuba/Florida/Bahamas
The beat goes on....
Even if models don't "see" anything forming.
Waves become stronger, time moves on.
Keep Watching.
The GFS is showing lowered pressures down the line.
Climo almost always wins.
I'll admit I thought playfully Ernesto should be a Caribbean Storm.
But in truth Climo shows it's face around August 25th.
MJO is moving into that area for a brief visit.
Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps Prayers for those in Italy trying to dig through the debris to find the bodies and find the reason that the bridge there fell down. Bridges don't usually fall down except in nursery rhymes that were really allegory for political discussion. King George = Humpty Dumpty. It's scary, terrifying and sad that this beautiful bridge simply "fell down" during a "violent storm" and much has been made of the weather. Could the weather or a lightning strike specifically hit a weakened part of the bridge or is this an explosion as some have said vs lightning. People argue online the poor maintenance of structures in Europe due to EURO budget restraints, mean Tweets by a politician in Germany with regard to the tragedy in Italy; even whispers of terrorism have been heard in the wind as usually someone goes there. What really happened will be figured out down the road but for now they have moved from rescue to recovery of bodies.
Could weather really have played a part in this or was it a coincidence?
Updated! Invest 90L & Invest 99L African Wave. Possible Disturbance in BOC? Thursday Thoughts on the Tropics.
2 PM
Invest 90L in the Caribbean.
Invest 99L in the Atlantic.
How fast things turn around.
MJO moves East.
Epac quiet...
Atlantic heating up!
A good image of the African Wave is below.
Closer to the Caribbean is another wave.
This is the area below we are watching.
The models are up from Tropical Tidbits.
The grids below are from Spaghetti Models.
Caribbean system now designated Invest 90L
It's closer that makes it more compelling.
Invest 99L the Ultimate Cabo Verde Wave.
Makes our hearts flutter.
Later it may do more than make them flutter.
IF it manages to maintain convection and spin.
Note some intensity models take 99L to a strong hurricane!
A lot of IFs before we get down that road.
So the new area Invest 90L introduced by NHC is shown below.
As I said earlier..
...the models show a wave developing late in the Carib.
And moving towards the Yucatan.
Many times I mentioned waves that form later rather than sooner.
Happens often when conditions begin to improve.
Conditions are improving it seems.
The wave will go West under a strong High.
Stay tuned.
This is a watch and wait situation.
See the set up below.
For now this wave only has one way to go.
West to WNW towards Central America.
Maybe the Yucatan if it climbs some.
You may wonder why the NHC made an Invest...
...when they are still using yellow crayons?
The model that likes 90L is the EURO.
As for the drama of the African Wave.
Buy some pop corn, get some cold soda.
It's gonna be a while before we know.
Stay tuned I'll update as events evolve.
Post from early this morning below.
All still relevant.
Only big news is we have 2 Invests now.
Don't call 90L baby....
Cause only time will tell.
Where's Franklin?
In the Atlantic or the Caribbean?
It's still a mystery...
* * *
60% in 5 Day
30% in 2 Day
(Remember Emily things can develop in the 2 day too)
This is a two part process this morning so unless you are a die hard fan who last night's post showing the EURO's nod of the head on the newest wave to depart Africa please click on the link below to that late night post.
For the person who asked on what a floater was a few days ago... aside from a close up view of a specific area a "floater" updates rapidly almost in real time. A satellite view of the Western Atlantic updates slower. That's a simplistic explanation but it's early here and hopefully that helps you understand. It floats up above like a teenager on Snapchat sending back images of late night snacks that fast and just as fast often our wave transforms upon hitting the cooler waters of the Atlantic and dissolves. Over land they do often have an awesome spin, flash of color and sense of rotation. The real test is when they are in the Atlantic. So leaving the floater above so while checking back for updates you can see the progress 99L has made on it's way to trying to achieve the name Franklin. This wave, however, has the approval of the EURO and GFS so it's expected to hold together. A friend Cody lat night said "waves are not gospel but guides. His official post is below and true, especially before we have a LLC and good recon data to put into the models. Very true!
I'm out of Nespresso. Rather than asking people to pay money for sharing my blog I should ask for Nespresso capsules. I'll have to take out my old fashioned Cuban Coffee machine to use until I get a new order. No Nespresso Boutique in Raleigh. Why am I talking about Nespresso other than the fact that I am out and my husband had to go buy coffee this morning to make coffee? Because as in life ... tropical weather is all about location. Just because a beautiful wave rolls off of Africa does not mean it will develop into a Hurricane. And after several abbreviated cyclonic systems this summer everyone wants a hurricane. Even a huge Fish storm would make some tropical observers happy. Hard core types obviously want something more that stays on the maps longer. But there are variables that location takes into account while wondering on wandering westbound waves. No coffee today...no commas. I made Instant Cafecito. Don't ask. And, you need the right ingredients. Do we have them with 99L?
1. Shear. The map for shear is shown above, taken from www.spaghettimodels.com
Is the shear strong or weak or marginal. Currently the shear in the area of 99L is weak, but again that's location as the lower it stays the better chance of surviving it has in that environment.You can see the green swatch below the red blob. If 99L cruises in those waters it has chances to develop.
2. SAL.
You can see from the image above that the SAL is minimal where 99L is currently. Mike also has this image up. There are many images but it's a good image. Note there is more SAL coming off. So if this wave can stay in the groove below the strong SAL and above mentioned lessened shear it appears 99L has a chance at the name of Franklin. And remember those beautiful waves that came before but didn't develop? The juiced up this part of the atmosphere; primed it so to speak for 99L.
So sort of like in Smokey and the Bandit... it's good to be a part of a convoy. Find a spot, feels right and you safely can get across the Atlantic. But can Franklin become part of that kind of convoy and stay on track and away from the dry SAL? Time will tell...
3. MJO.
Madden Julian Oscillation explained above and it's shown at Spaghetti Models as well as other places around the Internet. The MJO is moving slowly into the Atlantic Basin, it's not there yet but it's a better set up now than before. This could relate to a possible system sneaking in around the Yucatan in a few days. If models continue to show this possibility a new yellow circle might be introduced.
4. CCKW stands for Kelvin Wave discussion it is not an organization in Key West. That's how my mind works so just letting you all know. Again this will help, in theory, spike development in the Caribbean down the line. Why is that important with reference to 99L or any wave that forms behind it? Because what goes west gets into the Caribbean and sometimes into the GOM. Remember that over the next few days.
Bottom Line regarding 99L.
It has a good chance of becoming Franklin, unless that name gets stolen fast by some home grown spin up system. Being 2017 I cannot rule that out. It has light shear where it is currently and if it can stay below the SAL that had a chunk taken out of it by another larger wave a few days ago and (long run on sentence) the MJO and the CCKW is even helping out. It's up to 99L in that it needs to be a well aligned wave so that it can develop, ventilate and bubble other wise it's a lot of talk and a lot of tropical trouble that can't get it's act together. You can see from my post on Twitter below it currently seems to have a rudimentary circulation and might just possibly be "the one" to really become a full fledged Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane.
A few days back DaBuh showed this wave over Africa.
You don't need models to know a good wave.
The set up is there.
As he said it only takes one to develop.
So far we have 99L ..
I wanted to point out a feature that many of you might not know. On the bottom right of Spaghetti Models is a Twitter Feed. Unless you were annoyed I was posting too many pictures from my kid's weddings while a bit tipsy, then you may not know about it. Sorry but hey happens... there is a life beyond the tropics. You can see the thoughts there of many in the meteorology world and it's a good way to get a fast look at Twitter if you are not an addict. Be warned a few of these mets go long on baseball and other sports when there is nothing big spinning in the Atlantic. And it's not only tropical as mets talk on weather, eclipse discussion and again baseball and golf. But usually in August and September it's heavy tropical discussion.
I want to point out Emily.
She is not officially "Emily"
However she looks better now than she did before.
An image from a long 5 day WV Loop.
Emily over Florida mixing it up with the cold front.
Remnants of Emily in the Atlantic flaring up again.
The models did show this several days back.
But we are no longer talking about Emily.
It does show the models verified and that's important.
Blob off the Carolinas above out in the Atlantic.
Speaking of the Carolinas and Georgia.
One model wants to take 99L there...
Travel destinations change often this far out.
So check back tomorrow.
And the link below for last night's post was model intensive.
So check the link below if you haven't read it.
Also note there are waves out ahead of 99L
One of them is forecast to get into the Caribbean.
And then near the Yucatan come together.
And shuffle west towards BOC.
If this trend in models continue there may be a yellow circle there.
Time will tell as always.
So that's the round up this morning.
Note the yellow circle shown below went orange quickly.
There are two possibilities if 99L develops that are most likely. It develops faster, stronger as the GFS shows and curves up towards the Carolinas. It develops slower like the EURO shows and can go up over the islands or just clips them and threaten Florida, the GOM region especially if a new cold front dips down. It's all timing as a front and the GFS solution can make this a coastal cruiser and ultimately a fish. Some models show it tangling with Hispaniola. This is all SPECULATION as we are watching it in real time to see if it is able to swim and spin at the same time. Stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Oh and people ask so just saying I am not actually Cuban, but I was raised my early years in Little Havana and it creeps in to my lingo so that's who I am. My family was in the Cuban Tobacco business in Key West in the 1800s and then they moved to Tampa where they continued that involvement and I was raised in Little Havana. If I have to stop myself from saying regularly that a wave looks like Ca Ca. This was a problem for my daughter when she went to NC State she had to explain always what that meant as in Caroilna it sounds really bad, but in Miami it be like normal. So basically if I was talking Miami talk this would read:
Irregardless of the SAL this wave be like super good but if it hits the water and falls apart I just can't, I really can't cause it will be like all caca and look like $hit and the thing is like this wave is a thing. I need to but really I can't even talk about it yet. Pero I only eat the chicken not the ham croquettas.
Oh Miami... obviously the heat gets to us in Miami.
Ps. I can't. I just can't. They are escaping the Heat Stroke and sitting by the Portland River... in jackets and wearing hoodies. Coming from Miami and the Carolinas it's hard to understand how anyone would wear a jacket in a heat wave. I know it's usually cool and beautiful in the NW this time of year. I've been there, really love it but it's all a matter of perspective and yeah I know many people in beautiful homes do not have air conditioning. (But it's so nice there even in a heat wave ... sorry just hard for me to wrap my head around).
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
