Updated. Models & Is Nate In the Wings? Watches & Warnings up for NC ...Maria Big Meat Eater... Lee Must Be a Vegan. Is Nate Coming to You in October out of the GOM? Most likely yes...

Rather than show the cone...

...showing the weather voice of the Carolinas.

Brad Panovich in Charlotte NC.

Note the storm surge threat is higher.

Why?

Because for a long time...

Maria will be pushing the water in..

And that area is prone to 

'Sound Side Surge"

Note the map below.

The wind will push the water...

around the top of Maria.

Piling up water on the sound side.

Not just along the ocean.

That's a lot of flooding.

Erosion... storm surge.

Another Carolina voice to listen to...

Mark Sudduth.

http://hurricanetrack.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=jS4IH_7dpso

Maria is barely moving.

You can see this on the loop above.

You can see why.

High Pressure to her N and NE.

To her SE there's high pressure.

She just spins and spins.

NOT moving 7 MPH.

Possibly forecast speed.

Do not focus on her center.

Focus on her weather.

It's about her weather...

Best way to look at impacts.

While not the Euro or the GFS

Worth looking at this model below

Shows Maria just touching OBX

Needs watching carefully.

Euro... close.

GFS close as well.

So I promised some discussion regarding the models for what may be Nate later next week. Models show lower pressures in a few prime areas popular for October development. One forms something closer to the Yucatan and another forms something just to the South of Cuba. Both move poleward though some models show Alabama and North Florida in play and others show Florida in general in play. None of these models are to be taken as true possible tracks as much as showing possibilities to watch for down the road. Obviously if something forms in the GOM it will want to go Northward and as I have said many times this year is primed for a Florida hit from the South if a system forms to the South while fronts dip down early as we move deeper into a La Nina year.

October 5th. Euro.

GFS forms a weak low off the coast of FL...

"it's the GFS..."

October 1st... still there.

GFS drifts it South... 

(can't make this stuff up)

Slides down.. fades away in the Keys.

Then on October 10th..

GFS favorite spot is hot again.

2nd system is down by Yucatan.

GFS now spits out lows everywhere...

GFS takes the low up into GA/SC line.

I mean really these show possibilities and nothing more. The season is not over because at some point Maria (who absorbed Jose) is going to shuffle out to sea after taking Lee along for the ride. Maria may win the Black Widow Spider Award for the Hurricane Season. 

The GOM is the place to watch but so is the Western Caribbean especially the area between the Yucatan and the Eastern tip of Cuba...or just South of Cuba. Draw a line between the 2 Low pressure systems above and you will find the area that most needs to be watched as we move into October.

One view is below on how this evolves.

Again as cold fronts dip South.

They provide tickets out of the Caribbean.

And Florida falls in the cross hairs.

So back to Lee and Maria.

Or is it Maria and Lee.

Odds are Maria wins this one.

Maria is locked in place by the High to her North. You can see this on the WV Loop above. Blackness.

So she spins over and over ... over water that gets incessantly cooler and Lee gets a bit stronger far to her East. The High to her East pushes down on her for now. The cold front has not moved enough to pick her up. A feed of moisture flows into the Carolinas and up into Virginia... even West Virginia is getting clouds from Maria. Keep watching.

Note Lee is stronger wind wise than Maria.

Lee has high barometric pressure.

Hurricane winds go out 15 miles.

Maria is 10 MPH weaker.

Barometric pressure lower.

Hurricane winds go out 105 miles.

Bottom Line.

Do not minimize Maria...

because she is not a Cat 5 or Cat 3.

She's a huge weather maker.

11 PM Cone the same.

Not going to show it.

Sort of meaningless.

Maria is barely moving.

Wobbling. Kind of stalled out 

A lot depends on where you stake the center.

Weather getting closer to the coast.

Lee stronger but small.

Earlier image below.

Not to scale.

Maria at 5 PM.

Looking stronger than this morning.

Leaning in a bit towards the coastline.

Compare this with how she looked at 8 AM.

Still a vibrant, large hurricane.

Cone is the same.

Watches and warnings remain up

Arrival of TS winds...

Note how far inland that cone goes.

Possible TS winds.

Below is the relevant part of the discussion.

Note on the loop below.

The Western side of Maria fills in.

The part close to the coast.

Models for Maria below.
How close she comes to the coast is the question.
Not where she goes down the road.



Seems she goes to see the Queen.

At 11 AM Maria was stronger than at 2 PM.
Not by a lot but for now she's holding on.

Winds 80 MPH
North at 7 MPH
966 MB.

Hurricane Maria is barely a hurricane this morning, however it should it's maintain strength as it swirls off shore of the Southeast coast with it's huge bands swirling out over the Carolinas. It has an odd signature where the strongest part of the circulation is further from land whereas the part closest to land almost looks erased as if a child has been playing with paint programs on my computer. She's fun to watch, out there spinning not threatening anyone much while she does her thing waiting for a ticket out of town. Yes I used "swirl" twice on purpose.

Let's pretend Maria is waiting at the Wilson Amtrak train station in North Carolina for the always late Silver Star to finally get there. There was a problem earlier and now the Amtrak train is stuck waiting for the freight trains who have priority over the passenger trains (dirty secret you don't know unless you ride Amtrak) and your train got stuck somewhere near Florence trying to get back on schedule. This happens often when traveling on the Silver Star vs the Silver Meteor that runs along the coast and is historically on time so you are used to waiting for the Silver Star to do her thing. Big Atlantic Hurricanes often stall and loop in the waters just North of the Bahamas, spinning around scaring people from Savannah to Charleston and yet they usually slowly start moving North towards a glancing blow at the Outer Banks. Yes I used "stuck" twice.

Maria is normal on that level, though other things about her make no sense. I'm not going to go long on all the possible reasons this is happening and I am NOT attributing it soley to "upwelling" which is easy to blame it on as everyone does hoping people will buy that for an excuse to things that are more complex and difficult to understand. Upwelling is one part of the Maria's problem, but only one part and it's easy to illustrate so check the maps above. I know ... it feels like Maria should be up by the Outer Banks but she's not there yet...

I've also heard it said that she's too big. Kind of like she needs two seats on the Amtrak train so they are blaming her slow demise on being too large (no one calls a once Killer Hurricane Fat but... yeah) and that is often a problem for a hurricane to maintain it's intensity when at higher levels (old age) it goes wide and spreads out over a large area. Compare and contrast Maria to her kid brother Lee out at sea. Lee is in good shape, small and compact but actually stronger than Maria who is still recuperating from her attack on Puerto Rico. Lee is probably a Vegan but a stronger runner and at 5 AM had 90 MPH winds, compared to Maria who is lumbering along (sorry I call it as I see it) moving North at 7 MPH still holding on to 75 MPH winds. Interestingly many feel Lee may be stronger than 90 MPH as small hurricanes that are ignored and far from recon often do not present themselves totally on satellite imagery tools used to extract the strongest winds. Note the two compared below in the image that shows their wind fields.

Okay Maria has a very visible eye.

Note the connected yellows.

Interesting graphic.

You decide on her size below...

Official Cone below

Looks like a Limonana cone.

For those who don't know ... recipe below.

https://www.fromthegrapevine.com/israeli-kitchen/recipes/when-life-gives-you-lemons-make-limonana

Typical hurricane gets to 30N latitude...

Runs out of steam (warm water)

Blows kisses to OBX and out to sea.

Except that's not the whole story.

Currently, this could change....

...rain is not supposed to be an issue.

Graphic below shows that.

And arrival of winds shown below.

It's a great map.

Good product.

Hard to understand.

People will get used to it.

If you live in Bermuda _____

If you live in New Bern, NC ____

Find your place in the world.

Tells you the time you COULD get winds.

Now let's go back to the big picture.

Look carefully off of the Yucatan.

Yeah I said that.

Take your eyes off the Twins...

Models have consistently developed a system (or two) down near the Yucatan in the Gulf of Mexico in early October that moves towards the Eastern GOM beaches. When I said Eastern I mean right of Nola and North of Key West.... somewhere in there. Depending on where and when it develops it could affect South Florida, North Florida or Alabama or Mississippi. It hasn't formed yet so for now think of it as a Fantasy Team on your Fantasy Football League and it's projected to do way better than the Panthers or the Fins did yesterday. I'm so bummed out from those games that I'm beginning to think Carolina and Miami need to move away from the Aqua and Teal colors and get stronger colored uniforms as yesterday the Fins looked as if they showed up for a Fashion Show rather than a football game and they were strolling down the runway rather than running up the score. Red is in style this year on the runways so they might want to try mixing it up...though no feathers. It's a fad and not sticking around. Neither is Maria or Lee... but Nate is out there somewhere showing up on the long range models. I'll discuss what may be Nate later today.

So where does that leave us? Are we really waiting on a cold front or going with the whole "westerlies will pick Maria up" wording?  Beven's always writes good discussion so it speaks for itself so I'll give you the link to it (please read it) but basically the top side is exposed (much like the dress above) and her core is in danger though she most likely will hang on though her intensity may drop a bit in the translation.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/250851.shtml

I know, I'm not your normal person. I'd like a bit of wind and a few showers from Maria in Raleigh as that's who I am. The sky is very milky, white today so maybe there is some out flow or something out there hanging over this part of Raleigh. And, I'll be in Florida in October so I may get to see whatever the Caribbean has in store for Florida during it's climo favored assault from the Southwest. Nice to have two homes in ways. I've become quite the Carolina girl on some levels, pero I'll always be a Miami girl. It's a good mix. Luckily I have always been a big Green Bay Packers fan so I got to really enjoy a big win, coming from behind in over time. As I actually screamed though on that long play and when they won but not as big a scream as my daughter's boyfriend did when the Gators won this week.

I'll be back this afternoon with more updates and discussion on the threat of tropical trouble in the Gulf of Mexico as we turn the pages from September to October on our tropical calendar.

Much thanks to all who have interacted and discussed Maria, Irma, Jose, Harvey (etc) with me on Twitter. I'll admit it I'm a Map Slut. I've never seen a map I couldn't stop, stare at and mentally go places in my mind so you stick with the Fantasy Football and I'll get lost in maps.

Going to leave you with a few maps here. When hearing how upwelling destroys the chances for future storms to travel the same waters the 1954 and 1955 hurricane season make me go "oh really?"

3 storms braided, traced their way North.

All strong, all bad.

And then 3 did it again in 1955.

So... hate to go all Joe Bastardi on you but....

... explain why upwelling wasn't a problem then.

I'll be back later to discuss Nate.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... And that below is how my world turns.

Oh sorry for any typos. 

Not in the mood to proof today!

I'll proof on the Nate thing later.

Thoughts on Harvey, Flooding, PTC10 & 93L From an Amtrak Train Northbound Riding Through Stormy Weather from Nearby PTC10. So Which Gets the Name Irma? And Words from a Wise Friend Who Lives in Houston.

First the basics and then some long discussion below, thoughts I'd like you to think on a bit before making any decisions or getting nervous about another possible landfalling hurricane in about ten days or less depending on which model you asked to the prom.

Leaving Cabo Verde today...

... Invest 93L

Heading this way..

A look at our side of the world.

93L so far away still.

Harvey in the GOM.

Note that long tail..

PTC10 lingering.

Losing the name Irma.

Which would go to 93L it seems.

Maybe.

Rainy, stormy weather.

But no closed circulation.

I have always loved this view ...

Wide... 

Longitudes and latitudes. 

And these are the players.

 PTC10.

I'm actually on a train feeling it.

Rainy, windy, gray.

I love it.

Decided it would be a good day for a train ride.

The flags are all straight out right  now.

Trees are moving some.

Layers of low clouds steaming in.

I'm just West of PTC10 ...

It's going out to sea

I'm going North bound.

Below are models.

They change a bit every run.

But basically Westbound.

This is from earlier.

Models show different things on different days. They never agree on timing far out. One model has a well developed "storm" off the coast of South Florida (Miami) and another model has that system down in the Caribbean still. Another model shows a very, well developed HURRICANE off the coast of the Carolinas. I mean HUGE hurricane. We don't rely on models that are 10 days out, but we watch them and then we compare them with history and with current patterns. It's a process. September is a few days away and that's the official start of the Hurricane Season. This season started early so maybe this September is more like October. Whatever it is.......it is what it is.

This is my view as I type this...

Believe it or not...

...this is the picture I took the train for..

I checked the schedule against the forecast track.

Knew it would look like this.

I want to say a few things while I have some time being that I am northbound on a train watching the rain fall across the coastal parts of North Carolina.  In the last hour the rain has gotten steadier and the winds have picked up just a bit. It's very dark, gray and weather only a storm chaser would love. I'm way closer to the coast here than in Raleigh so I figured this would give me some time to breathe away from 24/7 watching TWC, looping loops and sharing information and thoughts with meteorologists. I feel pathetic saying I am drained as it's mental exhaustion not the reality of having to rebuild your life. And the people in Houston will have to not only rebuild their lives but the very infrastructure. Few are speaking on it right now, but many roads and bridges will have to be rebuilt. Water, the very weight of the water, sitting on a road way with a current pulling the water constantly all day in one direction ERODES the ROAD. When the water is gone, the real damage will be visible. The clean up will begin and we will hear one tragic story after another about some family that left too late and were washed off the road and died in their vehicle. It's too much for the mind and heart to take in ... every day, the same like that movie. Every day I put on TWC and there's Jim standing there ankle deep in water, all wet, looking exhausted, feeling the pain of the people around him. I want him back in the studio living on coffee and water vapor loops doing what he does so well. Yet, telling the story here, the true tragic drama only Mother Nature can produce is what they are good at and now that the other news outlets have paid attention ....well the story needs to be told. 

Currently Harvey is pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and is connected loosely to #PTC10 off the coast of the Carolinas. It's on the move today whereas Harvey is still hanging around Houston. It's important to watch the tail of Harvey and other assorted moisture down in the BOC as some models develop a weak system and add misery to an area that needs to dry out not be dumped on again. Further East near the Cabo Verde Islands is a well developed wave that is currently known as Invest 93L and behind that one is another wave about to come off the coast of Africa in a few days. Models develop 93L and some models develop the wave behind it. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

These are just the facts currently and things can change over time. However, the models that insisted Harvey would come back together in the BOC and make a move towards the coast were spot on. Despite daily discussion by the NHC at how poorly the remnants of Harvey looked, they left that door open for future development based on a consensus of models and the continuity involved. And the models were right, as sobering as that sounds, the models ended up verifying. It was hard for many of us to believe the long range forecasts for huge, crazy, tremendous amounts of rain and yet the models verified. So, now that we are tired of watching the misery that Harvey caused and watching lives torn apart breaking our hearts you can't dump the vehicle that got us here because we "don't want to hear it"

Life doesn't work that way sadly, we get good news on days we think nothing will happen good and bad news on days when everything seemed to be going good. It is what it is. It IS a busy hurricane season and the forecast threat of systems making landfall has also verified.

Amazingly I have had a lot of friends in Miami complaining to me about people living in Houston and how it's always prone to flooding. Odd to say as it floods in Hollywood Florida often. Yeah, amazing huh? Someone wants to live Down South where winters don't freeze you to death and not in the Twister belt with that "wide open flat sky" or in Earthquake prone San Francisco. Apparently we should start moving the population around and filling up the state of Wyoming with anyone who wants to live with snow half of the year. Land is cheap so you may want to think about moving up there. I'm a beach girl, born and bred in the South and I'll take hurricanes over earthquakes and twisters any day. You can prepare as much as possible and yet once every few decades you get a Camille or Carla or Harvey. Life happen, you roll with the punches, you start over, life goes on but the other years when there were no hurricanes life was good and life will be good again.

I needed a good break before the next wave gets closer to our side of the world. And things can always pop up when you least expect it close in. I mean it's still raining in South Florida and moisture is training from Harvey to the East Coast Low and hovering over the Tampa area almost every day. Some models develop a system, a weak system, in the BOC and take it towards the N GOM. Any system with any sort of moisture there is a bad system and not wanted. The motion of the train and the soulful sound of the whistle...the horn... moans a bit as it takes every curve. Trees are beginning to turn the further North you go and yet the gray, low clouds are making wild patterns in the sky.

I'll be back when something new happens. If anything happens later today I'll update at the top of this blog so check back often. Til then pray for the people of Houston and the inland towns that are not getting coverage but are getting constant rain and some localized flooding as well. Pray for those who have to rebuild. Donate to the Red Cross or any local organization you trust. I believe if you shop at Whole Foods you can go and ask money to be applied to a fund when you check out. And if you live in Hurricane Country...it's not too late to prepare because we may be facing another hurricane that wants to make landfall in about 10 days and better safe than sorry. Be like a Boy Scout and be prepared! When looking at the those crazy scenarios for a hurricane along the East Coast of the US over the next few days know the name Irma replaced Irene. Can't make this up... 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I'm in Brooklyn for a wedding in my son-in-law's family. I want to have some happy time, party time, see my grandson and my daughters dressed up and share the joy with a wonderful family. The Carolinian Train on Amtrak has wifi that's a bit slow but working nice. I can loop. Then I'll take the plane back to Raleigh Thursday. Just a nice break away from staring endlessly at loops, TWC, staring and thinking how we could have done better warning people of the reality of what the models were forecasting. Sometimes the models don't do a good job, other times they do a great job. The rainfall totals were if anything underdone not overdone. Go figure. 

My friend Betty Collette wrote this online to her friends who are all praying for her and others but can't wrap their head around how the 4th largest city in the USA floods like this. .. She has a good grasp of weather and is a great writer so I'll let her explain. We went to school together; Middle School in Miami when it was called Jr. High and Miami girls know weather and hurricanes. She ended up living in Houston and she loves it there. This week is not the best example of what Houston has to offer and yet when you watch regular people going out in skiffs, rowboats, kayaks and jet skis to try and help their neighbors who need help.... you get a feel for what it's like to live in that part of the world. 

"For those not affected by Harvey but are wondering how bad it really is in the Houston area and why, this is for you.

First of all, this is being called a catastrophic flooding event, not simply serious or even severe. Catastrophic. Not even a 100-year flood (which we seem to get pretty regularly these days) but a flood of the millennium.

Houston is flat. Houston is exceedingly large in area. There's a LOT of concrete and buildings, not an abundance of green areas (but we're trying), and heavy clay soil. The area is criss-crossed by untold number of waterways - dry most of the time and often ignored - and new construction requires building retention ponds nearby (also empty most of the time).

Most of the time, when it rains here, everything works as it is designed without too many problems. When we get a lot of rain, concrete and clay soil don't absorb water and the runoff heads to ditches, retention ponds, creeks and bayous. It's not unusual to have street flooding when drainage systems are overwhelmed but it usually goes down fairly quickly. We are known for many low spots in major roads and drivers regularly ignore warning signs and/or media reports, choosing instead to drive through...and suffer the consequences (from ruining their car to drowning).

Then comes Hurricane Harvey.

All kinds of weather people predicted exactly what ended up happening - Harvey strengthened to a Cat 4 right before coming ashore and proceeded to stall as intensity diminished. Unfortunately it stalled right where the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico continued to feed the storm. The right side, known as the dirty side, continues absorbing water and building the outer rain bands while another front tries to push it down from the north, resulting in continuing the counterclockwise motion of a tropical storm. And so all of this weather sits on top of Houston, the 4th largest city in our country.

Now..mix weather and geography...and we end up with catastrophic flooding.

The big question I've heard asked is why didn't you all evacuate? Uh, no. First rule of hurricanes - evacuate from storm surge and wind, not rain. Besides, evacuation was tried when Hurricane Rita threatened us. People jumped in their cars and promptly got trapped in a massive traffic jam lasting almost 24 hours. They ran out of gas, and food, and patience. It was hot, Texas hot. No bathrooms. Around 100 people died in this fruitless evacuation, fruitless because Rita turned away and ignored Houston.

So why didn't everyone prepare for this? Actually most people did but even though massive flooding was expected, Houston is so very large that you simply cannot predict exact spots of flooding. Many spots now flooded have NEVER flooded, even in the recent hundred-year-floods. There has been so much rainfall that it simply overwhelms everything designed to move it away. And the rain continues...in fact, the flash flood warning has been extended to *Wednesday*. That is 3 more days of this because the remnants of Harvey are not going away anytime soon. Plus, as the rain falls on Houston it is still raining to the west of us and waterways there drain toward the Houston area, AND the storm continues to push Gulf waters toward land making it difficult for waters to drain into the Gulf.

Sounds crazy, doesn't it? A perfect storm. Truly, a catastrophic event.

Can you even begin to imagine shutting down a city this size for days on end? Businesses closed. Schools closed. Cannot drive without running into roads closed by flooding. Airports closed as runways are under water. You see the pictures and videos and news reports and wonder, How? Why? You can plan as much as you can, but sometimes it's simply not enough.

Instead, you just pitch in and help where you can, doing what you can. For some of us, it's keeping others informed. For others, if you can get out, it's rescuing some, feeding others, volunteering however you can. The news stations continue to show regular citizens helping others, bringing in boats to rescue those stuck in flooded homes. That is the Houston spirit we know and love. We are very thankful for all the emergency responders, many on their way from out of state but also for Houston firefighters, police, Coast Guard, National Guard and more.

We will survive. We will. We will be fine, just a bit soggy for a while. We are thankful that most of what has been lost is just "stuff" and VERY thankful that we are providing a welcome break from dismal news coverage of the hate and division in our country. Nothing like a good disaster to bring us all together. "😉