Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 29, 2017

UPDATED -- Invest 99L Gets a Friend. New Yellow X in Carib.. Wave I Wrote About Yesterday. But the Real Show is Further South in a Week or So. Models... Nate Ophelia Currently In Hiding While Maria and Lee Leave the Scene.

2 PM.
More of the same.

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It's just one of those watch and wait set ups and again if it didn't have a designation as an Invest no one would think of it as anything more than some rain moving up from the Caribbean. That does not negate it could cause a mess for some places in the short term and down the road it could form into more. We are monitoring it... investigating the possibilities. It's that simple.

Again my concern is later in the week as in NEXT week. Something to think on and watch what evolves out of the Caribbean and Mike put this up. It shows what we are all watching and wondering on and it really isn't 99L near Florida currently.  Nothing has changed other wise... other than convection is still oozing North towards Florida. The loop below shows where the strongest convection is... South of Cuba, it keeps reforming after oozing North. To the right there is the area with the yellow X. Both being sheared for now but that could change.......... stay tuned.

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It's the holiday of Yom Kippur tonight.
People have a custom to give charity.
I gave here...

There is so much devastation.
So much kindness.
Love and respect....
..sacrifice by many trying to help.
This will take months...
Years... to rebuild Puerto Rico.

It's a good site and they have been working nonstop since the hurricane to provide emotional support, as well as distributing whatever they have to people in need.

Really we are so blessed we have so much.
We have a roof over our head.
Phones to talk to our loved ones.
Water, food... 
...please give as you can.

Please look below at this image.
Notice the long dark trench.
West of Lee down into the Islands.
That is where the ULL formed.

Updated put in motion today.

Lee pulls away... 

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Nothing much going on.
As I said yesterday.
Maria and Lee need to leave.
Pressures need to lower.
You can't just have convection.

Wave slowly moves away from ULL.. 
Hot water.

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Not much developing.
Convection moving up towards Florida.
Keep watching.

I'll update after the models all finish running.

Be back in a bit.
Keep reading if you did not already.

* * *

Yesterday's orange X.
Invest 99L
Now at 40% 2-5 days.
Rain for Florida... not good.

Oh look... a new X.
Remember I spoke on the tropical wave?
Rain on the way to the Islands... not good.

Yesterday in the blog I wrote about needing to wait until the west bound tropical wave moves into the Caribbean providing the necessary ingredient to this soup for it to turn into something more than just ingredients thrown into a in a soup pot with some water. Even when you turn the heat on without the proper spices (salt and pepper) it doesn't quite have a real taste... it's just vegetable enhanced warm water. Waves tend to light the powder keg often in set ups such as this and then sometimes still very little happens. Again, you have to let it cook.... you don't need to stare at it constantly but it needs time. So now we have the wave I spoke of yesterday highlighted with a low yellow 20% chance in 5 days. In truth it will be a while before we see where if anything this turns into something. I've said before systems like this that go hybrid often have multiple centers and eventually one takes over. Yesterday the NHC was going with models that showed something would develop on the NE coast of Florida and today they are back to the scenario of possibly off the West Florida coast in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Not sure who will be their next dancer partner tomorrow but it's a watch and wait in a stalkerish kind of way where we let the system develop (or not) on it's own. Models are not always useful with set ups such as this one. 

So see the picture below.

You know those cakes people make?
The "Reveal Cake"
Shows the baby's sex....
It's a thing now. 
Very popular.
Cut the cake.
Frosting is a color...
Pink.. it's a girl!

Sadly there is no reveal cake for the NHC.
They have to watch and wait...
..analyze models.
Multiple satellite images.

So let's play NHC today!!
Ever wonder why there are so many floater loops?

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The loop above shows you dark colors S of Cuba.
High cloud tops down below.
Continually moving N.

Note the Upper Level Low more visible below.
Water Vapor Loop shows the invisible.
ULL enhances the convection.
But it also shears the system.

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 Below East of Tampa.
Spinning area... 
1 part ULL .. 1 part 99L
ULL sucking the moisture North.
Less visible below.
But keep watching the ULL.

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Now keep watching the area W of Key West.

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I know also something E of Florida.
Try to focus on the Keys.
(I cheated I cut an image vs a loop)
Today we are watching the Western side.
North of strongest Convection.
East of ULL
Mike will be doing Facebook Lives..
IF this develops.

Speaking of Mike...
Here's the Spaghetti Models

A loop shown on Mike's page (thanks)

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As I said yesterday this is a wide area of convection with many areas that could develop into some sort of quasi tropical storm, hybrid as the cold front descends down towards Florida (very early for Florida to get a real cold front) and tropical moisture moves North and in addition you have at least 3 Upper Level Lows spinning about that make the area sort of more like chopping atmospheric waters not totally favorable for tropical development deserving of a name. Again in a week or so when all the interference left behind from Maria and Lee as well as the prominent, stubborn ULL departs the scene. There are STILL high surf advisories for the East Coast even though Maria has made her move towards finally hooking up with Lee and going out to sea. What we have below is a tropical world in transition from the hurricanes of September and the October named storms that will soon enough get their name and their fame in this extremely busy 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

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ULL forms South of Lee.
ULL in the GOM
Small ULL S of Maria

The two still images below show this better but please they go back up and watch the water vapor loop. The deep red colored trench (dry air) between Maria and Lee digs South into the Caribbean. It enhances the wave for now but does not allow it to develop just yet. In the Gulf of Mexico there is another deep orange area of high pressure associated with the back side of the ULL that enhances convection but creates diving shear not conducive for tropical development.  South of Maria there is another ULL trying to form. ULL stands for Upper Level Low for those who do not know and are new to this blog... they are fun to watch, they spin like hurricanes but they are not and they often become steering factors when a storm has formed and yet keep a storm from totally forming if a storm has not yet formed. The one in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico has ruled the scene for weeks and was a player in the retrograde motion of previous tropical systems in the short term. They are interesting features, fun to watch as they are fluid and deepen, close off and move about sometimes; real players in the whole greater process of tropical development.

Close up look below.
North of the new Yellow X.

Another water vapor loop.
Down between Hispaniola and PR
Hasn't finished diving ..

The one in the Eastern GOM...
..hasn't finished diving yet.

So now you ask "so where does 99L form and what does this mean?" It means 99L may not form in the near term though it could come together tomorrow or Saturday if one area takes over and develops close in ... and that's why we call it "home grown" and the reason the NHC elevated this area to an Invest as it's nearness to land makes it a compelling ...possible problem.  

Ever go out with some guy when you were young that everyone told you was perfect for you as you had much in common and he has so much potential. You know the guy most likely to be whatever you think is all that when he is grown up.  Good looks, gets good grades and is involved with all sorts of activities and yet there is no real chemistry and there is no real "there" for you despite what everyone says you just don't feel it? There's a city that will remain nameless as someone here hates when I bitch about it... well on paper it's a great place to live. It has many of the things I would need... kind of in the South, has lots of kosher stores, restaurants, near the water, on I95, airports, Amtrak and even the football team wears my colors. It's a really great place on paper and then you go there... spend a few days and you can't wait to leave. I keep going back... even cost of living is lower than many areas... I've got friends who love it there and yet... it's grimy, gritty and it just doesn't call your name. Sometimes areas of interest in the tropics known now as Invests are like that...   They are merely areas of potential and often when close to land the NHC throws them a bone and gives them a designation to best warn the general population of a potential problem. So you can't rule out development around Florida but it is basically more rain and rain that Florida (and Puerto Rico) does not need. 

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There's a song from the musical "A Chorus Line" that is running through my mind while I watch these loops and stare at models and it's called "Nothing" and it's worth listening to.. Someone taped it live... going with the "stalkerish" feel to today's blog discussion.

Yeah... currently I feel nothing. But even nothing can cause misery to some and even a weak Invest or Tropical Depression dropping incessant rain drops more misery on those trying to get back to normal. So let's keep watching the tropics as it is one of the busiest hurricane seasons in history. And again I'm more worried on what comes out of the Caribbean possibly in about a week's time. 

The GFS seems something every other day in a different place. Shows possible development in the E GOM then shows a small swirl south of Nola and then well you get the idea... smells more than the Euro that basically smells nothing. The NAM model still smells something.

It's not the EURO or GFS
But it's something.
You can see the convergence below.
Or fronts, lows near FL GA line.

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Cold fronts don't really hang in all the way thru FL in late September.

Further week.

The GFS sees some thingS
2 systems.
10/07/17 below.

Sunday 10/08/17 
SomethingS stronger
Maybe (10 days out always iffy)
Something to worry on... 
...might not happen but a real concern.

Euro doesn't go overboard.

I'll update later this afternoon.
I'll update with more model discussion.
And again.
Later in October climo shows it's face.

Remember when Wilma rode a front into FL?
That worries me more than 99L today.

IF that area persists.... 

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....that's my bigger concern.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Faster updates in real time on Twitter.
I'll update later today on the blog.

Ps... In drama when I was a little girl I had to be an owl once. I mean really WHO cares? The tree was the star... no one really cared about the owl, the bird or the butterflies... I tried really hard to care and say "whoooo" with emotion but really........ who cared? I didn't even want to be a tree... I did want to be a flapper but that was a different production. Give me a short skirt,  a cute hair style and some beads that hang just right and then I felt something...

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Thursday, September 28, 2017

99L Forms ..UPDATED! 50% Orange Circle Over FLORIDA.... IS Nate Forming in the Caribbean .. Headed Towards FL? Into GOM? Is the O Storm Soon to Follow? Orange 40% by NHC in 5 days. Irma Recover and Maria Moves Slowly Away .. Slowly. Waiting on the Cold Front in the Carolinas. Compass Realty Coconut Grove "The Meyer Group"

2 views of 99L shown above..
and below.

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Hard to see but...
small spin in the Florida Straits.
Just off N coast of Cuba.
From the NRL site below.
Soon we should have model runs.
Specific to 99L

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Short term loop above.
Better than models.
You can that that to the bank.
Bank on lots of rain across Florida

I promised you model discussion.
First lets do this old school...

Note last 2 frames show a L.
Down in the SW Caribbean.
Near the Yucatan.
Nothing but rain over Florida.

Can that rain get a name is the question.

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That's a lot of rain over the next 5 days.

Understand that many in Florida are trying to clean up everything from debris to getting their roof fixed to getting the proper forms filled out to demolish what is left of their homes. It is not a happy place as people work to get trees trimmed, stumps ground and pray daily for the trucks to come and remove the piles of debris from their streets. Some streets are missing street signs, traffic lights and it's every man for himself at a downed traffic light. In some areas in the Keys the clean up has barely begun and along the SW Florida coast where Irma made her second landfall in Florida people are living without the basics ... though better than those in Puerto Rico it's far from normal. Any new system, no matter how small or poorly formed could cause exponential misery more than an early June system like this would normally cause. So that image above is the 5 day rain total and it's not good. The St Johns River for example is not even back to "normal" and Maria has left a strong on shore surge of tides and beach erosion still ....

Usually I show this image below.
While looking for those early elusive waves.

It shows the Caribbean to be busy..
..First week of October.

Water is very HOT.

There are 2 areas I want you to focus on.

Way South of Lee...
A cluster of convection.
Part wave... part pulled N.
Part remains.
A small westbound tropical wave.
To the west of that.
Once Maria and Lee leave...
There will be less shear.
And we may see a secondary system.
The 1st one sort of vague.
Rouge sort of storm.
Hybrid maybe.

I can see Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert.
Low designation.
MUCHO rain for Florida.


So would that be NATE?
Could we be waiting on Ophelia?

Maria Lee and the shear need to leave.
Under the radar .. tropical waves.
Hot Water.
ULL not as impt in a week perhaps.

Confusing right?
Which is it?
Or is it both of them?

Note the models below.

The Euro on October 7th...

October 8th.. moving NE.


September 30th.
Small L near NE Florida.


October 6th...
Down in the Caribbean.
Deep down.
Something forms.

It moves up towards Florida.

Not good.

It moves up along the W part of FL.
Stays over E GOM.

Mike would be doing lots of Facebook Lives..

My bottom line. There is currently an area just South of Florida near Cuba being watched for development. Most short term models show a system forming off the NE coast of Florida.. very weak, moving around Florida... and then going away. A cold front moves South. Maria and Lee hit the road in search of new locations and our eyes need to watch the Caribbean as most models show a Low forming and that is totally in line with climo and where we look for October development.

Again should Nate form close in ...home grown ... huge amounts of rain and bad weather are not going to be seen as a popular guest in the state of Florida still trying to dry out, clean up and get on with life. Even a weak, hybrid Nate would set us back on our recovery as well as adding more concerns.

But I'm more concerned about the long term problem that may come up at us from the Caribbean during the time period from October 4th through October 10th. I'm putting out there a wide span of days to worry upon and hopefully this will not develop.  In the short term... 

Watch this loop... the next few days should show something possibly coming up out of the Caribbean. In the short term a low forms connected to a cold front that goes stationary then gets strong from another reinforcing cold front comes...goes flat then... well you get the idea. Bottom Line watch the Caribbean in a week's time for a real problem and continue watching Invest 99L for a weak system that may cause a lot of misery.

* * *

Updated 2 PM NHC outlook

Up to 50% chances in the 5 day.
Satellite image below of Florida.
Sat and Radar...

Loop below.

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Note the ULL over E GOM
Plays a part in evolution.
Can enhance....
...can shear.
Keeps it in check.
Interaction between the two bears watching.

I'll update after the EURO finishes running.
Around 4 PM
Check back later.

All eyes are on the Caribbean now.
Ignoring Maria and Lee...
...Looking for Nate.

So let's start at the very beginning, as Maria taught us, it's a very good place to start. When the calendar flips over to October the areas that need to be watched are shown below. Above the NHC has highlighted an area with a 40% chance of developing directly in that region shown below.

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Maria is in fact directly connected to this area.
As Mike said so simply and correctly.

I spoke about this over the last few days. Maria left a long tail that went all the way down into the Caribbean. Think of that the way we watch the tail end of a cold front, when the convection sits over very hot water it tends to begin to spin and become a problem. I've shown this several times of late and I'll post a Tweet from Dabuh who is good at sniffing out development.

Watch the satellite loop below.

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At the base of the tail of Maria.
Is our area we are watching.

Understand because it's at the end of an active hurricane it is different from a dead cold front as there is still shear there that will hold this area in check from getting too strong. That changes down the road when Maria finally departs. She has been slow to depart so far though you can see the dry air pushing East reaching out towards her trying to push her away from the East Coast. Dry air for the newbies being that maroon, rusty, black area over the Southeast stretching out towards Maria trying to push it away. It's the second attempt to shove Maria away from the coast and the third will be the charm. We are forecast to be 90 degrees again, but Fall is forecast to make a return on Friday. Again I say "forecast" as nothing in weather is a given but we are hoping to have a reason to sip Pumpkin Spice Latte which is hard to do if it's 85 degrees unless you live in Miami and that's normal. Yankees like it to be really cold before they start sipping the PSL .. especially New England people who need it to be cold enough. In North Carolina it will soon be PSL weather (for a few days) as Maria goes out to sea and our attention moves down below into the Caribbean as we move day by day towards October. Specifically Saturday night Sunday morning it will feel like Fall finally in the Carolinas. 

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So you can see the ULL still near FL.
Hanging out in the E GOM
And area we are ignoring in the BOC.

Dave was great where this was concerned.
He always showed the whole picture.
He explained how it was all related.
Anything below FL only has one way to go.
IF something forms in a week...
...things might change.

Watch Dave below.

Next I want to warn you on long term models.
And cones that have a wide degree of error.
Irma below ALWAYS took the left side of the cone.
She made landfall in Cuba.
She didn't slide up the East Coast.
Tho her weather DID...
Not a bad shot in the dark.
But again the cone wiggles a lot.
As the hurricane does it's thing.
The cone and the models adjust.


I'll show the models this afternoon at the top.
Every city is talking about it.
But each a bit differently.
Jax weather shows this:

They be dealing with a strong front.
A quasi system down below.
Those are wind speeds...
...not temperature readings.

Down in the FL Keys...

They always do great discussion.

They also add in some hurricane history.
1929 a quiet season.
Brought an October Hurricane.

In 1929 while most of the country was about to be sucked into the downward spiral of the stock market the only real strong, memorable hurricane of a very slow hurricane season plowed through the Bahamas, made a SW Betsy like move and then caused problems in the Florida Keys then it caught a cold front and went on to do record damage in some parts of the Southeast. Today in history... indeed. 

From Wikiepedia below:

Hurricane Two[edit]

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
Pcpn1929092328isohyets.png 1929 Florida hurricane track.png
DurationSeptember 19 – October 1
Peak intensity155 mph (250 km/h) (1-min)  924 mbar (hPa)
The Great Bahamas Hurricane of 1929
The second storm of the season originated from a tropical wave that developed in the vicinity of Cape Verde on September 11.[4] The wave became a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on September 19, while located about 300 mi (480 km) north-northeast of Anegada in the British Virgin Islands. The depression drifted just north of due west while strengthening slowly, becoming a tropical storm early on September 22. Later that day, the storm curved northwestward. Around midday on September 23, it intensified into a hurricane. While turning southwestward on the following day, the hurricane began to undergo rapid deepening. Late on September 25, the system peaked with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), an estimate based on pressure-wind relationship, with a minimum barometric pressure of 924 mbar (27.3 inHg).[5]
While crossing through the Bahamas, the storm struck Eleuthera and Andros, on September 25 and September 26, respectively. Late on September 27, the system weakened to a Category 3 hurricane and re-curved northwestward. At 13:00 UTC the next day, the hurricane made landfall near Tavernier, Florida. The storm then entered the Gulf of Mexico and continued weakening, falling to Category 2 intensity late on September 28. While approaching the Gulf Coast of the United States, the hurricane weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 1, it made landfall near Panama City Beach, Florida. A few hours later, the hurricane weakened to a tropical storm and then became extratropical over southwestern Georgia shortly thereafter. The remnants continued northeastward up the East Coast of the United States, until entering Canada and dissipating over Quebec early on October 5.[5]
In the Bahamas, the hurricane brought strong winds and large waves to the archipelago. At Nassau, a weather station observed a wind gust of 164 mph (264 km/h).[6]Within the city alone, 456 houses were destroyed, while an additional 640 houses suffered damage. On Abaco Islands, 19 homes were demolished.[2] The hurricane damaged or destroyed 63 homes and buildings on Andros. Telegraph service was disrupted.[7] There were 48 deaths in the Bahamas.[2][4][7] Throughout the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, numerous boats and vessels were ruined or damaged. At the latter, strong winds were observed, with a gust up to 150 mph (240 km/h) in Key Largo.[2] However, damage there was limited to swamped fishing boats and temporary loss of electricity and communications.[4] Farther north, heavy rains flooded low-lying areas of Miami.[2] A devastating tornado in Fort Lauderdale damaged a four story hotel, a railway office building, and several cottages. In the Florida Panhandle, storm surge destroyed several wharves and damaged most of the oyster and fishing warehouses and canning plants.[4] Overall, there was approximately $2.36 million in damage and three deaths in Florida; eight others drowned offshore.[2]"

Just remember that after September it is NOT over and especially in October in busy seasons it takes a long time for things to wind down.  Speaking of that read the discussion below and note that surf is still strong from Maria far to the North.

It doesn't matter what Florida city you put in.
The NWS discussion is all the same.
Watching a Tropical Disturbance below.

Miami discussion below

Again I'll update the blog later today with new model runs. The runs are just inconsistent and they all hint at development in the short term around Florida and again in the long term and I've heard several good meteorologists give their own spin on the models and their spin differs greatly depending on how they see it and their own geographic concerns. So in times like this I watch those I trust who are best at sniffing out development, hinting at evolution and trusting my own thoughts. The image below is DAY 10 and could that be the area in the BOC that is now showing convection or will that area push into Mexico under a strong high and then later this develops. Time will tell. We are all on top of it.

This is why I said what I said on Twitter.
Models show odd solutions.
Multiple solutions.
Even the same model... 
You need a good met who knows weather.
You got to know when to ...
buy in to the model.
Not rely on the model.
Wait on next model run.
Make your own forecast.

That brings me to Rob from who puts out great forecast discussion but he is a pay for view service. He is very good and many meteorologists do that in that they work privately vs the way the NHC does where their forecast is free to view however sometimes they go wide with discussion and the devil is always in the details. When you have a cone the size of Texas and you have specific concerns and want a more detailed forecast many turn to private meteorologists. He's okay with me posting this and wanted to do so this morning as with a very complicated forecast for what could be a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or a Hybrid Storm that would be GOOD because it wouldn't be a CAT 5 could cover a wide area with a diverse mess of weather that includes but is not limited to high tides, strong winds, flooding, beach erosion and twisters over a very large area. I can only imagine what the NHC Cone would look like....

I'll update more on the models and Nate and my own thoughts later today.

As regards Irma and Maria and the places in it's path that need help I'm posting this site from my son's company. He knows Florida, Florida Real Estate and what it is like to be a father with two small children and his wife trying to protect them before the hurricane and trying to clean up after the hurricane. He lives in Coconut Grove and his place was in a flood zone very close to his office (also in a flood zone) and as I learned recently my daughter in law was a little girl in Andrew and she never wants her kids to go through that again so........the hit the road. There is much clean up in the Grove as it is "the Grove" and a grove of coconut and local hardwood trees in a hammock along Biscayne Bay. Rarely do hurricanes happen there but when they do you clean up and life goes on.

When Levi got back to Florida (from visiting with me in North Carolina) he went out with his truck, a chain saw and some co-workers, best friends and siblings cutting down trees that wrapped around people's homes making it almost impossible to go out. When a ficus tree wraps itself around our front door and all your windows after a hurricane ... you can use good friends and Levi always has been a friend to jump in and help someone. Currently he's trying to help raise money and products for people in need where Irma made LANDFALL especially I believe in the Naples area. They are collecting supplies (list below) and coordinating with others to try and get what they need in there... as well as money.

Below is a picture of Main Highway in the Grove. I'm very grateful it was not hit directly by Irma. It is a wonderful place to live, rich in early South Florida History and a walkable, place where families walk about town, people bike and stroll enjoying the lifestyle that is so unique to Coconut Grove. Many places in Florida are unique and beautiful one of them being Naples where Irma did visit directly and did much destruction sadly.

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I remember driving down that street after Andrew and taking pictures and when I looked at the photo I could not figure out where it was as it was a street devoid of tree canopy. And in a year or two it grew back (things grow fast in the tropics) and it was paradise again. Levi has involved himself this week with a charity fund to help people recover. Yes, I'm always proud of him but today more so.. and in particular his "The Meyer Group" are collecting monies for diapers especially and trust me been there done that and I bought more diapers before Andrew than junk food... We went to several stores looking for diapers as most were sold out and if you have kids in diapers who are not ready for potty training... well you got to have diapers. And many other things are needed and as always money is needed.

I never ask for money for my blog though the blog has had a few perks over time :) and I am grateful but I do ask that you help others who are trying to make a difference and please make a donation as you can... a small donation multiplied by ones your friends can give goes a long way... a big donation goes even further. A sad reality of life after a tragedy is money does make the world go back to normal. Please donate I did... asking others to do so as well.

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