Philippe? Just Nasty Weather? Are You Wearing Boots in Miami This Morning? A Look Back at 2005 Hurricane Season... How did it end?

A look close up at the Invest.

Something there...

Invest 93L in motion below

I know it doesn't look like much today.

You're probably tired of hearing about it.

NHC has odds at 40% at 8 AM.

Wider view shows the whole story.

Note convection in EPAC as well.

(That's foreshadowing...

...keep reading)

Let's go further out.

Everyone is so into black and white ...

IF anything forms it's set in stone where it goes.

IF it really develops.

Otherwise it could linger longer in the Caribbean.

Models Invest 93L

Let's go deeper into the models.

GFS

Starts to form a closed Low.

Front swoops down.

Scoops "it" up.

Whatever forms moves through the Straits ... comes close to Florida or just stays off shore and joins up with the descending Cold Front (the next one not this one obviously) and plows it into the NY and NE area (that includes the coast of NJ) creating travel delays, flooding possibilities and downed trees that will lead to downed power lines that will lead to power outages. It's a mixed bag of annoyance, it's not a hurricane racing up the Eastern Seaboard, but it is an early winter storm or October Gale (what is in a name really???) creating lots of weather. The above scenario is according to the GFS model shown above.

Let's look at the EURO... The Euro forms a closed Low in a similar place and then like a bad advertisement for Las Vegas keeps what started in the Caribbean in the Caribbean, yet another Low pops up and catches the same frontal system and plows into the same coastline as the GFS above. For an added bonus, the always dramatic Euro, develops another storm in the EPAC. It then moves the "L" North into the same region that the GFS does above.

In between the GFS and the EURO there are many other model solutions that all do similar things. The point is it is not a name in this case but the actual "weather" that could impact the multitudes.  Many models show a brief period as a named storm and then it merges with the front. Some show it crawling up the Florida Straits (sorry Florida Keys) others show it crossing Cuba... most want to take it NE up the coast. Other models want to keep it home in the Caribbean. Some models split the energy in multiple directions. The end game here for the USA is that an area from the Mid Atlantic North into New England will have dramatic weekend weather and they need to be properly prepared if that does verify. IF it comes close to South Florida or any part of Florida it will be discussed in great detail with sadly great hype. Everyone is a bit over exhausted from this hurricane season. For now people in South Florida are enjoying wearing boots and whatever cold weather clothes they have ... however...the same pattern that brought them this week's cold front will bring them the next cold front and that might have a tropical storm trying to hitch a ride North. Time will tell.

A voice I respect is Larry Cosgrove you can follow him on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Jim Williams weighed in on Facebook this morning... 

http://www.hurricanecity.com/

Miamians be like "it's so cold" this morning.

NYC NWS Forecast for this weekend.

(as always forecasts are subject to change in real time)

Some have gone out on a limb...

...and predicted this is the last of the Hurricane Season.

Again I say ... time will tell.

Cold fronts usually change everything.

But often odd things pop out in Nov and Dec.

Let's look back at another similar year.

Or will Philippe become Porky the Pig?

Let's look at some weather history.

2005 Hurricane Season Map Below.

I want to look back a bit at the 2005 Hurricane Season. This 2017 Hurricane Season has been compared to 2005 often and the name list itself is the same, albeit missing names like Katrina, so it almost seems redundant or Deja Vu to look through this list of storms. Nate, Jose the 2017 names resonate in our recent memory and the names Maria will be forever retired from the list of names used for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2005 for many ended with Wilma, yet the season went on with a progression of named storms that really went no where, popped up out of nowhere and most do not remember their other than the oddity that we ran out of letters in our Alphabet and had to borrow from the Greeks names to use. Many of those "storms" look like punctuation marks on a document that's being edited more than real tropical storm tracks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season You can slowly plow through the multitude of storms that traced patterns around the Atlantic Basin causing misery, destruction and death. Years like 2005 are few and far between and this past year we have seen a similar slew of destructive hurricanes; many memorable in similar ways. 2017 was more intense in actual long lived Category 5 Hurricanes aimed at islands in their path vs way out in the middle of the ocean somewhere just an asterisk to the ACE numbers for the year. 2017 is not yet over, it's winding down and still a work in progress but we hope and pray the destructive Category 5 Hurricanes are done forming this year and we will just get some random storms that form out at sea and move somewhere else as weak, wandering remnants of tropical weather.

Now let's look at 2017 so far......

I'll enlarge the traffic jam westbound ...

Remember forecasts verified for a busy season.

Forecasts verified for a strong high...

Will winter forecasts verify as well I wonder.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps 

Triple Trouble. Harvey, PTC10, 93L.. One Should Become Irma Sooner Rather Than Later.

Going to start off with Harvey and Houston. This has just been a seemingly never ending tragedy and yet it will end. Rescues are still going on. Eventually there may be recovery of bodies as the waters recede. And then the rebuilding begins and that may seem to take forever. Houston has been very lucky that they have not until recently had a strong, direct hit by a tropical event. Again Harvey made landfall at the coast removed some from Houston, but the rains came as the models predicted and so did the flooding. In between those years when Houston didn't get hurricanes there was incredible growth and a population shift into the 4th largest city in the nation. Houston is rich in jobs, diversity and a friendly Southern Texan feel not far from the coast and not prone to harsh winters. People came for jobs, for colleges and stayed. This happened in Miami in the 1970s and 1980s during hurricane free periods where it seemed all sunshine, balmy breezes and a great place to raise a family. And, then Andrew came in 1992 after about 27 years of severe hurricane drama. Ironically during the 1980s when Miami was Hurricane free the Gulf of Mexico was like Hurricane Central. This is Andrew for Texas, it's a wake up call that Hurricanes are coming back to one of their favorite destinations.

Note Harvey eventually leaves.

Shoots off to the NE 

PTC10 also is going to make that NE bend.

Out to sea.

But very stormy beach days today.

From Carolinas to NJ.

Out in the Atlantic is 93L

This could be Irma.

Or Jose.

Depends on PTC10.

It will be a long tracker.

Some models threaten the whole Eastern Seaboard, Florida and the Islands.. others tend towards not such bad scenario. We've seen these long range models before and what we take away from therm is that is westbound to our side of the world and expected to stay an entity for quite a while. So go through your hurricane supplies, medications, plans and rethink what you might want to do if a Hurricane comes to call. 

AGAIN...Houston Flooding is from the a stalled out Tropical System and a rare set up. Most hurricanes never encounter such a set up and many places can easily handle and get through a hurricane if the people in it's path take the proper precautions which is easy to do as we give very early warnings for a hurricane landfall. So don't focus on Harvey with regard to the rest of the season and feel you can't do anything to prepare... you can... Harvey is one for the history books. Will it be the most memorable hurricane of 2017? Time will tell. But the wave rolling off of Africa in early long range models shows it has potential to be a big hurricane. Will it? Again, time will tell.

For now know it's there and there will be more systems that track a long ways or pop up out of nowhere close in. The best thing you can be... is be prepared. Some models show more than one tropical threat down the road. Sobering I know. You may not want to hear that but it's true and I don't hype but I also don't lie and pretend it won't happen. 

Harvey has taken a massive toll on the people in Houston, the people working the storm in Houston, covering the storm online and forecasting it's track out of Texas. It's depressing, shocking and after several years of easy times in the tropics and strong El Ninos we got used to always getting lucky. At some point your luck runs out tropically. If you live in Hurricane Country from Texas to Maine you will at some time get visited by tropical trouble. In the quiet times, the easy times its a good time to put things away and make a plan.

I'll update later today.  Got a lot going on today. More on that later. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Give to whatever charity you trust but give. And prayers are always good.