Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

UPDATED 8 PM . 70% African Wave - Invest 96L Models ---- Wednesday and the Tropics. 95L Once Was and 96L Will be BUT... Will it Be Chantal? Time will Tell....


Models coming in for Invest 96L



8 PM
Gone Red...
70%
Models shown in Tweet below.



A tropical depression may form early next week..
According to wording from NHC.
Remember the map above isn't a cone.
It's a zone of formation for 96L
Where the X is ...is not where it's supposed to form....
The Red Grid is where it is supposed to form.

So what do models say?
Let's stick with the basics here.
GFS 2 runs.
Old and new. 
Does it really matter?
Yes and no.
It's far away things will change often.
Both are similar.
It consolidates and crosses PR/VI
Then North closer to Cuba...
...or Bahamas.
Again ends up where the 10% yellow grid is..
...for X95L.
Patterns persist understand?



Now we have the EURO.
It's like BEYONCE... 
Just has one name.

Weaker...
Same basic track.
Ends up in Bahamas on last run.
Next run further North in theory.


Just keep watching.
Be back tomorrow.
For good or bad watching the Dem Debate.
Love politics... it is what it is.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Ps... if you didn't read this earlier.
Keep reading some valuable explanations.
Still relevant... not much changed since this morning.
Other than the expected raising of percentages for 96L




2PM


60%
Still waiting for Invest 96L to be official.
You know cigars given out... 
... hype, headlines.
Seriously we just want better data.
The data train ramps up with it's officially an Invest.
Waiting.........

As for current models... 
Mike posted this a while ago.
You get the idea... 
..stronger than 95L




Tropics Wednesday Morning.
Last day of July.
At 8AM NHC said....
10% chance in the 5 day for Invest 95L
50% orange for the Big African Wave 
Note you can connect the dots between the two.
More on that later.
First let's look at what was 95L
Because after 8AM they pulled it.
Always got to stay on top of NHC in Real Time ;)


We see Invest 95L has moved up towards the Bahamas and South Florida. This area is a common breeding ground for July close in development of tropical storms. Sometimes depressions linger and other times a hurricane eventually develops from convection that pulls together around the Bermuda Triangle where the water is warm and weather often gets wild fast. Currently have low expectations but pointing out the convection already off the West Coast of Florida so it seems like a Convection Convention all over Florida.

animate.png (1200×875)

Understand IF this develops it is a real time development of a home grown mess.  Either way it's expected to amp up the normal South Florida convection and we could see more localized flooding and more incredible lightning displays. Nothing new there. The loop below shows the low and has an orange dotted line down near where Invest 95L would be on that last frame.


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)


Also note the front moving down across the Southeast towards Florida. Boom collides with TD3 and the moisture gets sucked up over Florida. Same thing that happened with TD3. Let me show you below how repetitive this pattern has been so fast this season.  

X Invest 95L today.


TD3 old Cone.


If this doesn't scream out "pattern" to you.
Can't think of anything else that would.



Speaking of something else.
Let's look at our African Wave.

Using Mike's grid from www.spaghettimodels.com


Well organized grids on his page.
Mike can be fun and act silly.
He's extremely logical in his organization of grids.

Purple splotches over the East Atlantic.
Blue Purple over the MDR

Tropical Hazards candy cane red in the Atlantic.
That's the first time we've seen that.
Expect ti to happen often.
Green off of Florida ....
Now look at the water.
Again it's most inviting closer in....
...if the waves manage to get closer in.
We need to watch out.

As for models......

Let's do this visually.
The famous EURO below.


Tuesday the front and remnants of 95L above.
(By the way NRL actually pulled the plug on 95L today)
Waiting for them to put up 96L any minute.


Thursday a more intensified system is in the Bahamas.
Close to where 95L will be tomorrow.
Get the picture?
See the pattern?
Note the most closed off system.
But looks better than 95L.

The pattern progresses.

The infamous GFS

Tuesday.
Less mess from 95L
There's the 96L


Thursday.
GFS has more going on than the EURO.


Bet you want to see Friday right?


Gotta tell you the GFS has been pretty consistent with this system.

Later today most likely........
We will have more models run as it should be 96L by then.

The bottom line here is this....

Today is the day to watch the NHC do it's monitoring of the African Wave. Could Invest 95L make a come back? Yes it could as it has already done so once but again as I said earlier it's a mess of convection for now and nothing more. A mess of convection in the Miami area or other parts of Florida could be problematic as often our afternoon thunderstorms are stronger than Invests or Tropical Depressions so watch your weather apps and experts in real time carefully.

As for the Atlantic Wave now at 50% inching up in percentages slowly it's another one to watch. But again the remnants of 95L end up where TD3 ended up and it's not quite a lock in but looking that way that 96L will also end up playing on the same golf range in the Bermuda Bahamas. Could it go further West or be strong enough to be Chantal ... the answer is yes. Why you ask? Because it hasn't formed yet and it's still a potential storm but the potential for this to become Chantal keeps showing up on models.  I'll update later this afternoon if and when they declare it 96L and we get better models and are better able to analyze it from all angles. The NRL is a great site, but there are so many great sites we use to observe and analyze every cloud, wave and mess of convection in the tropics. We are so lucky. Years back people lived along the coast of Florida or the Carolinas and never knew a tropical wave had wrapped up into a strong hurricane and was coming there way. So be glad for all we have as hurricanes are pretty much the only real natural disaster you can see coming and plan for so start planning for a busy season with hurricanes coming our way, moving up towards fronts that we still see on the maps going into August and where they tango tells the whole story. 


As for me I'm back in North Carolina after a prolonged trip back to South Florida and a few days near the Florida Georgia Line. After a night in Jacksonville Florida we drove on up to Georgia to a part of the world I love a lot. Can't say how much I love the low country and the coast. Spent some time in St. Mary's Georgia Monday where they are still rebuilding the docks destroyed by Hurricane Irma. 




The video below is a bit raucous.
But some people do get that way in Savannah.
Not me... I just wander around and smile.
Sip wine and eat pralines.
Have a late night ice cream....
...and give thanks for being where I feel home.
Conceived in Georgia.
Born in Florida.
Living in North Carolina.
I'm about as Southern as it gets.
Southern Girls know hurricanes well.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time updates.

Ps... if you like Low Country.
Check out Beaufort, SC.
It's beautiful.... 
Stopped in to get some Espresso.
They make good coffee there.
It's coffee with a view.
If you like coffee and the view check it out!
Pastries and a large menu .....
http://magnoliacafebeaufort.com/

Nothing like the Coast of Carolina.
Where many systems will take aim this year at...
....and hopefully slide by waving.
Because no one wants tropical visitors who come to stay ;)

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:28 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Updated 10 PM Invest 95L and 96L to Follow. Wave Train Leaving From Africa .. May Come to a Town Near You Soon. Please Prepare and Get a Plan.


Updated 8 PM
East Atlantic Wave now up to 40%


95L may develop but if so not for a while.
Close in. 
Either way PR will remember 95L
Flooding... heavy rain. 

Significantly interesting.



Just got home. 
Going to watch the debate.
Tomorrow I'll update.
We should have Invest 96L soon.
Stay tuned!

Note this tweet below.
Waves traveling around the High....
Once Tropical Storms or Hurricanes....
They can curve out to sea off shore.
They can go South under the High into the Caribbean.
They can make landfall.
You know this dance and the steps.
 Be back tomorrow morning


My thoughts......... check out the model tracks.
Where the high is will guide the movement.
Strong waves.
Strong High.
If the waves develop will they be well stacked?
If so we will have to watch the tropics carefully.




10% for now in the 5 day for Invest 95L
20% in the 5 day for what will be Invest 96L

Note I'm on vacation.
You may find typos.
Sorry if so I'll edit later.
Short on time this morning :)

Going to do 95L first.
Location wise it's on our doorstep.
Time wise down the road so may 96L be.



Note there is convection there.
It lacks a true center.
Wait and see what happens as it hits warmer water.
Less shear.


Wide view of the Atlantic.
You can see 95L and the wave off Africa.
Also an active ITCZ
And a dark, deep High Pressure Zone.


I'll talk on the wave off Africa later.
Another view below.
Healthy waves for late July.
Close your eyes it will be August soon!
Putting this here now as it's relevant.

I used to be more impatient.
Someone taught me to have patience.
So now I wait.
You can wait too.
Soon we will be so busy.
I hope I'm wrong.
But I don't think so...
Those African Waves.




Here are our tropics today.
Note the wave in the Caribbean flaring up.
Moving up into the Atlantic.
Crossing the Mona Passage.
Raining on PR... 
Moving towards warmer water....
...and less shear.
It's here off Florida and the Bahamas we watch.
Out in the Atlantic you can see the ITCZ
And the wave off of Africa.
That wave is the real player here.
But #95L shows where it may go.
Expect #96L to develop soon.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html



Some models that were run for the current waves.
Details change but just look at those tracks.
Around the high.
How close to they and others come to the East Coast.
And impact the islands later in the season?

Note Earthnull image.
Nothing specific in the Caribbean.
It's a wave in the Caribbean still.
But close to Africa...
...lot's of swirls, semi closed off.
Potent waves.


Check out the wave closest to Africa.
The one with the yellow circle.


Waves often fall apart.
This one so far has good model support.
I'll go long on models tomorrow.
I'm in Savannah this morning.
Finishing up vacation.


Note PR is getting rain from Invest 95L
Let's hope all PR gets this season is needed rain.
And nothing more.



I'm still on the road, home later tonight and I'll do full updates then. Today is a day to sit, watch and think on what you would need to do if a hurricane comes to your town later in the season. I'm not trying to hype or alarm anyone here ... but I am trying to educate and inspire you to please take this hurricane season seriously. I really do hope I am wrong but with a huge high set in place somewhat anchored and strong, healthy stubborn tropical waves rolling off of Africa (nicely spaced I may add) the road map right now leads towards the Islands and ultimately the East Coast. Yes, things can change and yes the high may open up and many things can happen but this is a set up that compels us to take the 2019 Hurricane Season seriously.

Often times a hurricane can aim itself at Miami or Charleston and swerve to the NNW and then the N and then go out to sea with an approaching cold front and we do have cold fronts this year on the map even in late July though they are not so cold, but they sure did grab what was TD3 and didn't get a name and absorb it's moisture. So landfalling hurricanes are not a lock in, however it's very possible we will have coastal cruisers and if the high is very strong and low they could cross Florida or the Florida Straits into the Gulf of Mexico.

So stay alert and watch the tropics but while watching please take stock of what your particular household needs to deal with power outages, evacuation and the dangers inherent in an approaching hurricane.



Everything in life comes down at some point to decisions. I'm in Savannah this morning at the most beautiful Marshall House on Broughton Street and loving it. I wanted to go out and watch the sunrise but I didn't want to leave the room. So I opened the curtains in the cute old fashioned shower and watched the sunrise from the bathroom during my morning shower. I mean oh my gosh heaven. Not a great view but watched sunset last night so I'm good. Note usually we park in that parking garage, I drink coffee from the nearby Starbucks or get ice cream nearby and walk in and out of the Marshall House wishing I could stay there. Now I did...  It was a great sunrise in it's way, so is Savannah. I do have distant relatives here and pass through often but sometimes you just got to go with your gut and do what you love. I'll update later tonight from Raleigh. For now I feel home in Savannah.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:06 AM 0 comments

Monday, July 29, 2019

Updated 10 PM 2 Areas of Interest. Yellow Circle Near Africa - 95L A Wave to Watch. And Another Wave Departing Africa. Will it be Invest 95L. Time Will Tell. Stay Tuned.


Well well. 
Look who joined the party.
Wave Train West Bound....
Neither are expected to develop in the short term.
X is where it is now.....
The yellow circle is where it might develop.
Connect the dots ...there's your hurricane tracks for 2019.
Every storm is different.
But the general road West around the High is set for now.
Let's see what happens 3 weeks from now...
A month from now.




For now discussion is below.


The lead wave may develop once it's North of PR.
In the warm waters of the Atlantic... 


Note convection is favored N of PR.
What's interesting is naked waves are fun to watch.
With less cloud convection you can see their bones.
If they have bones.
95L has bones.
Will it form?
Keep watching.
See it's bones below.



Looks like those kid's toys.
The ADD toy of the year a few years ago.
Spinners?
Has shape.
Just needs convection to align properly.
Waves like this are long shots.
Fun to watch but no guarantees.

Everyone is watching the new wave off of Africa.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

95L having problems getting respect.
Everyone wondering on the new wave.
The ones the models like.
But will they like it tomorrow....
...and the day after?



yeah.... 

Currently everyone's waiting for waves to develop.
6 weeks from now....
...people may be wishing for them not to develop.

Don't say I didn't warn you on that one!

Anyway... in Savannah.
Husband had business here this morning ...
...and I didn't want to leave.

So spent the night.
Watched the sunset.
Incredible.


I'll update in the morning.
Nice hotel room.
Comfy.

Sweet tropical dreams, 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram






& &  &



So glad the NHC did this as it was supposed to....
...develop later rather than sooner.
Close in.
Homegrown.
If it does develop.
So everyone can settle down for the next few days.
And watch the African wave train.

I'm in Savannah as we stayed here tonight.
Husband has business here and I'm Southern.
So being in Savannah or Charleston is always...
Southern Girl Heaven 
Really
:)

More later...





Good morning from Jacksonville, Florida.
I'm beginning to feel like this is home.
We stop here often on our I95 travels.
It's a good spot to stop.
Close to Savannah.... 

I digress.

Nothing much has changed with 95L for now.
Convection has died down over night.
Convection should flare up again.
It's not too close to South America to be a problem.
It made it past the shear before the Islands.
It is forecast to move up over the Greater Antilles...
On it's way towards warmer friendlier water.
Greater doesn't mean better it means bigger here.


Let's look at the water temperature around 95L
Why?
Because the water temperature is like fuel in this case.


As I'm in Jax let's show their graphics.
Note the water is hotter near Cuba and Florida.
It's not centered because I didn't have coffee yet.
But snapped it from the TV as my proof I'm here.

Now let's look at 95L


You can see the circular shape of the wave.
It's lacking convection this morning.
Let's keep watching.
It kind of looks nervous to me.
"Oh no... now everyone is watching me"
Performance anxiety perhaps?

:)
Silly mood today.
Please bear withe me.

In truth everyone is really watching the new African Wave.
It has no designation but lots of model support.
Questionable but you see the pattern here.
95L made it across in tact.
The next one will take the same track.
The next one may be stronger.


Last night it looked stronger as seen above.
Let's just wait and watch and not get too nuts.
It's a wave. A wave that made it across.
It's more it's part in the process towards real named storms.
Towards hurricanes 

Models for the new wave...

Note it's the same track... west towards the Islands.
Then it lifts WNW then NWish... flirts with landfall.
Note image below.


Small ghost like reflection of 95L on the left.
Kick ass wave on the right coming off of Africa.
In the middle a mediocre wave still hanging in there.
It's a process. I can't say it enough.

The water near Florida and the Bahamas is warmer.
If part of 95L hangs together.
It gets to the waters where 94L were.
And if 96L off the coast of Africa....
(not yet designated but that would be the number)
It will follow the same track....
...but it may be stronger.

New wave off of Africa.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir


It's officially wave season.
And they all have the same destination.
Our part of the world.

Eventually our area will have to deal with tropical trouble.
It may cruise North towards the Carolinas.
Or slice through the Florida Straits into the GOM.
But you can bank on this being where the action will be.
At least for part of the season.


This is your typical "average" hurricane season.
The mean season as some call it.
These models will repeat often .....
...with some variation.


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

You can watch 95L come and go.
Play peek a boo.

I need coffee.
I'll update later.

Jax really puts on a show sunset wise...
...it's really South Georgia in Florida.


I call this My Little Pony Sunset.
Or "Ribbons in the Sky Sunset"
Simply beautiful.

Much Love.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram








posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:01 AM 0 comments