A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, April 29, 2019
Quick Short Heads Up and Hey There ...as the Hurricane Season Is Near By and Pattern Set Up Could Produce May Trouble.
Still in Miami finishing up my Passover Vacation with my family and soaking in the palm trees, tropical breeze and feeling the Florida vibes but out there somewhere is a reminder that May brings Tropical Storms that develop early from stalled out fronts and or weather that sits too long and festers. You can see a front to the North and this area that has been there and nothing really to worry on but we watch now to see patterns that may become issues down the road. We don't post or talk on it to hype but to remind you hurricane season is coming. And to be honest we love to talk with each other about tropical stuff and later this week is May 1st and we enter the window for early tropical stuff to develop; also worth remembering EPAC begins on May 15th so watch that area for develop. My best friend offline Sharon is ALWAYS watching.... I went to visit last night and her bedside table she had this set out and yeah that's why we are friends. We have been at the beach during Tropical Storms and before hurricanes more times than I can count... weather, football and Chabad bind us together :)
Are you ready is my question?
Note the discussion below.
Tis the season soon........
Mike is watching also.
Now is the time to get a plan.
Don't let Andrea surprise you.
Be back to full posting around May 1st on a daily basis.
Til then prayers go out to friends in California Chabad for a complete recovery.
I lived and worked there in the 1980s...
... many of my closest friends are now down in San Diego Chabad.
My daughter was there with her husband visiting his brother.
They came back for last days.
Her brother-in-law's friend was the hero who saved kids ...
It's a small world or at least my world is.
Enjoy your sunrise and sunsets.
Enjoy the palms or the oaks.
I do.
North Carolina is nice but it's not South Florida.
Hug your kids, enjoy the breeze.
Give charity, do acts of kindness.
Get a plan for the hurricane season.
Always have a plan for everything.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps: A link to their site.
I donated last week to Chabad Kenya after an attack there :(
I'll donate later ...hope you do or donate to the Red Cross.
Hurricane Season 36 Days Away....... Getting Close. Vacation in Miami and Then I'll Be All About the Tropics. Wicked Weather Today of All Types... Check with the NWS Often for Updates.
So I'm in Miami.
Doing Passover Miami style.
Fried Plantains... Pico de Gallo
Meringues and fruit
I realized that Google doesn't show you boat time.
Part of this trip was on my son's boat....
Shows you distance for driving, flying and walking.
I guess tech companies aren't in Miami....
...doesn't take how long it takes by boat into consideration.
Spoiler alert that day began at 10:30 ended at 8 PM.
I know life goes on weather wise..........
This area today is under the gun.
IRONICALLY........
They are having a NHC Conference in that area.
You think that's a sign for this hurricane season?
Could GOM be in for tropical trouble?
Many, including me, think it's very possible.
There was tornado damage in Louisiana today.
School field at a college there....
Nothing huge but not as tranquil as my weather has been.
Last night, watching sunset before heading in...
Earlier in the day we went to some Tropical Gardens.
More time alone with kids, Grandkids and peacocks........
Image I screenshot of Hurricane Michael before landfall.
Category 5 Hurricane Michael.
Rarely have I ever seen an eye look so real.
The big news today in the world of Tropical Meteorology is that as expected it might be... Hurricane Michael has been upgraded in retrospect after much analysis to have been a Category 5 Hurricane. A very rare event to have a Category 5 Hurricane that close to land and even rarer to have a Category 5 Hurricane make landfall. Everything has been changed now, all those lists of the top five strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall in the Atlantic Basin. And remember again this was a hurricane season that was forecast by many to be relatively quiet due to cooler than warmer temperatures in the breeding grounds of the Mid Atlantic. This is an excellent example to remind you this season when you read headlines and see that mitigating factors may suppress hurricane activity. They are academic discussions and nothing more because hurricanes happen in real time and only in the rear view mirror can we really know what any said hurricane season is after all the storms have ended and the post analysis has been finished. Again the NHC always goes over the storms after the season and decides whether a downgrade or rare upgrade is in order and in this case Hurricane Michael that seemed to almost take on human like features doing things that no hurricane has ever done before... making landfall in that location that late in the Hurricane Season the hurricane with the eye that seemed so real, so intense has not been upgraded to Category 5.
Obviously the excitement in the meteorology community is real and despite today's wicked weather traipsing across the Deep South and East Coast.... everyone stopped staring at radars to talk Hurricane Michael. The picture I screenshot from my computer shown above is from the blog post when Michael was intensifying and concerns on destruction at landfall were becoming more real, more obvious and more terrifying. Sadly that terror played out and the destruction was as expected if not even stronger than originally thought it would be. You can see the destruction yourself below.
I'm short on time today as I am busy with preparations for Passover as is my family and many of my friends as well as some of my friends who are busy with preparations for Easter Sunday. It's just that time of year to be honest. As much as we worry on climate change to be honest tornadoes and Easter Weekend have come together too many times to list; the two that come to mind are shown below. I'm hoping and praying the weather will come and go without much trouble but wishing doesn't always make it so.
As for me home in Miami after a nice road trip South.
Severe Wicked Weather Threat The Next 3 Days... 2019 Hurricane Season Waiting in the Wings. Prepare Now.
Remember my previous post about Severe Weather in the South expected? Yeah, that happened. And, it's gonna happen again this coming weekend so get ready and know the expectations for severe weather and tornadoes is much higher than last weekend shown above. Remember last year when there were hardly any tornadoes anywhere that we would normally expect them? Yes, I know Wyoming, Montana and Cape Cod had a busy season but the South in Dixie Alley and the Plains were fairly silent. As usual when Mother Nature snaps back she snaps back fast and hard and this year is not last year with regard to severe weather and tornadoes.
I want to be clear about this. The next three days across a good part of the country are going to filled with severe weather reports and breaking news on tornado warnings. Storm chasers are out and about and severe weather will be talked about often and judging from last weekend's death toll the death toll will most likely sadly climb and those who have lost their homes, belongings, schools and possibly their jobs or place of worship will be terribly impacted. Somewhere, someone is going to get slammed. Don't be that person who doesn't have a plan and gets taken by surprise.
Today.
Tomorrow.......
More centered in on Mississippi Valley...
Mississippi River.
Doesn't need more rain either....
And the Day AFTER Tomorrow
The threat moves EAST.
Note Eastern North Carolina is in orange.
It's got the same chances Oklahoma does normally.
And this time of year NC is prone to trouble.
Historic Tornado events...
Straight line winds.
That is about as dark red as it gets across East NC.
OBX prone to hurricanes....
...could risk getting tornadoes.
More so note one thing here.
North Florida and Georgia are under the gun 2 days.
And as the system is sliding, flying East...
The line is vertical mostly as it slides East.
But across the Florida Panhandle...
....trying to rebuild after Hurricane Michael.
The lines goes horizontal and remains longer...
...over places already burned my storms this year and last.
That's a tightly wound system.
Put it in motion.
Again note really bad weather for Northern Florida.
Florida in general.
Everywhere East of the Mississippi is in it eventually.
But as these fronts keep on rolling...
Rolling...
2 things to remember.
1. Twister Season
2. Hurricane Season
As cold fronts slow down.
Drag their way across North Florida.
Drape themselves across the Gulf of Mexico...
And linger off the SE Coast...
Hurricanes will happen.
And early season Tropical Storms will happen.
It's very possible unless the pattern changes big time.
Now is the time to deal with Severe Weather Season.
As for me.... I will not be in NC when the wicked weather comes through. A shame, I know... usually weather goes around Raleigh and not much happens here but historically they have had problems with tornadoes and huge oak trees are known to slam to the ground crashing through people's homes. I worry on falling pines in North Carolina from a Twister or a Hurricane than I do palm trees "back home in Miami" and speaking of back home in Miami I'm on my way down there for Passover with whichever parts of the family are there this year. I'll be on and off over the next week or so and I may update on the severe weather but I will be offline over the weekend for the first two days of Passover down by palm trees and the water view and kiddies and my best friend. Okay it's not that exact view but we don't want to give away private details. If you are in South Beach (I won't be) feel free to check out Chabad there, it's a couple hundred feet from my father's old office :) and I'l pretty sure somewhere along the way I'll be hanging out on Lincoln Road.
Severe Weather in the South Today and Hurricane Season 2019 Waiting in the Wings. Hurricane Gracie Some Hurricane History.
Hurricane Gracie 1959.
Remember that for later please :)
Today's weather issue is shown below.
My best friend says we don't have problems anymore.
We have "issues"
So let's go with that.
Keep your eye on the radar guys.
Chance for severe weather in the South today as temperatures soar close to the 80 degree mark and clash with weather that's not so hot. Everyone in the shaded area is on watch for severe weather that can pop up as fast an a summer thunderstorm or pollen blowing off a pine tree when a helicopter gets too close.
Thunderstorms may pop.
Some may pop violently.
Many hate that graphic above.
Because the word "slight" is hazy....
It makes you think nothing to worry on..
I mean "slight" means barely there to many.
It only takes one tornado to develop...
in the same way hurricane predictions fall ...
...to the wayside when two majors strike the coastline.
It's really stupid for people to say "slight" or "below normal"
Severe weather may happen.
Hurricanes happen.
Speaking of Hurricanes I'm talking on Gracie today.
Gracie was the strongest hurricane since Hazel to make landfall.
That's her eye up there staring down at you.
Gracie was a funny storm in that most people don't remember her unless they are older and live along the South Carolina coastline. Somehow this Category 4 hurricane got lost in the shuffle of the damage from Hazel in 1954 five years before and the overwhelming scope of damage from Hurricane Donna a year later when Donna ravaged a good part of the Eastern Seaboard. Everyone always talks on those early 1960 hurricanes such as Donna, Betsy, Cleo, Flora and yet few seem to remember Gracie. Actually 1959 was a bumper year for major hurricanes and it led right into 1960 that produced the infamous Donna. Check out the video below and wanna add here.... it's possible for us to see similar early season storms form for a variety of reasons.
Worth noting 1959 was a busy season.
A wide variety of small storms and big storms.
Gracie was big... a Category 4 hurricane.
Gracie had one of those tracks a storm tracker loves.
Forms close in and can't decide where it wants to go.
It makes the tracking so much more fun.
Talking tracking as in years ago people tracked.
Now we just look on our App or check online.
Each advisory came out six hours apart.
Three if there were watches and warnings up.
You wrote down the coordinates.
Rushed over to your handy dandy hurricane map...
(all the gas stations and news stations gave them out for free)
And you marked a new dot on the map.
God I love maps.
But Gracie was way before my time.
And living in Florida few people talked about her.
So I forget about her sometimes.
Few who were in her path of destruction forgot.
She was one of the ones that made memories.
This is what video looked like before your cell phone :)
Home movies put to music.
You think we hype storms now?
Wow nothing like news reels.
A "traveling catastrophe"
Who remembers Hugo?
Yeah we've come along way since the 1950s.
Then they were excited to get a good radar picture of the eye.
By the 80s we were watching them travel from Africa.
Traveling West towards the Islands....
... slowly coming together.
Everything was slow then....
Waiting on new coordinates to be released.
Watching each new image from the satellite to come in...
Hugo hit South Carolina like it was the first time in forever.
And in ways it was ....
People moved in from places up north...
... people who thought hurricanes go to Miami I guess.
Miami watched and sighed a breath of relief...
"A Carolina Storm" old timers said.
Great video there...
I remember Hugo.
I remembered Hugo the whole night of Hurricane Andrew.
All of Miami remembered the images from Hugo.
Yet so few remember Gracie.
I have a lot of friends and I do mean friends as some are close personal friends who have been releasing their forecasts for this upcoming Hurricane Season. There's a lot to compare and contrast in them though they all show basically the same thing and that is Hurricane Season is coming sooner rather than later. Coastal cities may have to watch this year as they did last year because it's more likely storms will form close to land vs out in the Mid Atlantic region though that will most likely happen come August and September when the water warms up and the dust dries out.
I'm really not up yet to talk on generalities and mention lots of abbreviations to try and sound all academic and meteorologically intellectual though I'm sure I will as the season progresses. I worked and lived in Academia and it gets boring in ways and it's not like standing on the beach feeling the wind, hearing the howl of a hurricane approaching or standing on rocks or on the hood of a car to get good pictures and data and feel the hurricane up close and personal. If you have not done that on a Florida beach with all the palm fronds pointing in one direction and the trees bending a little as palm trees do you really have not seen a hurricane in all it's glory.
I know Texas gets them and the wind howls as the sand blows and the waves get all frothy underneath the legs the beach house is built upon and yes hurricanes happen in Cape Cod but it's just not the same. Hurricane Donna in New York and nearby regions took down age old oaks and poplars and flooding was the big story. Hurricane Gracie caused "issues" far inland once she was only a tropical storm and that's part of the life process of a hurricane after landfall.
So in a few days or a week or so I'll post the various opinions but like the NWS graphic that says North Carolina may have a slight risk of severe weather they really are trying to warn you that weather may happen. Personally I'm not a big believer in El Nino being a huge factor deep into the hurricane season when hurricanes will happen. I think there's a flip going on and I am not yet sure how much of a flip will happen and whether we go back towards Neutral or lunge towards a La Nina but I do know current conditions warrant concern in coastal cities from hurricanes that form closer in ... much in the way Michael pulled it together closer in and much in the way Jeanne and Frances found their groove as they sniffed landfall and trying to write about whether it will be a "slightly above normal" or "slightly below normal season" isn't doing it for me just yet.
This is not my favorite time of year though Mother Nature is putting on a beautiful show in the Carolinas of Spring color as azaleas are popping and dogwood is at it's prime, pollen is falling and cherry blossoms are in bloom. Tulips are pushing up through the ground at record rate and red seems to be a big color this year. Severe weather is possible across the South. The times they are a changing.
Stay tuned......
Remember while reading lots of articles that the media will put out it only takes one and hurricanes that form close to the coast like Michael or Katrina after hitting her warm water spot there after traipsing across South Florida as a weaker storm (that formed just off shore of Florida) did a whole lot of damage so I don't really want to hear lots of academic discussion on how the water is cooler than normal or that El Nino was officially announced after it had been here a long while and is showing signs of possibly leaving sooner rather than later.
Be prepared.
Pay attention.
Watch your local weather experts.
Follow along on social media.
I watch several sites personally.
I love checking in with Mike because he's always relevant. A man for all seasons :)
Hurricanes happen and so does severe weather ...whether it's a marginal risk or slight risk weather can and will happen.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. Follow me there for real time information.
Ps... Let's look back at 2018 because I think this season will be similar to 2018 in ways as the pattern has not changed that much overall and because of what I am seeing in April though things can change a lot before September as we all know. September Remember right? Anyone remember Alberto that made landfall early near where Hurricane Michael made landfall late in the season? Remember when Florence formed and was immediately written off by the experts as a "Fish Storm?" and remember when Leslie spun around randomly like a top that wouldn't stop spinning? Remember all the early preseason discussion on why 2018 could be a slower year than normal because of cooler waters in the MDR? Remember when indeed.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
