Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 30, 2024

UPDATED TD 3 in BOC Possibly TC Chris By Landfall- Major Hurricane Beryl 130 MPH Forecast to be Cat 4 at Landfall by NHC. Beryl Chose a Bad Time to Do Rapid Intensification While Moving W at 21 MPH Windward Islands in Direct Path of a Destructive Dangerous Cat 4 Cane!

Last day of June.

TD 3 in BOC

130 MPH Beryl forecast to be 145 MPH

Invest 96L 70% Red 

Are we busy enough yet?

St.Vincent, the Grenadines and Grenada are currently seen to be the places to get the most direct impact from the eye of Hurricane Beryl. I'm talking the most severe winds and pounding storms in the eyewall and hopefully it continues it's fast forward speed, at least sparing these Islands a long, drawn out ordeal. Either way those are strong winds and it'll be the first time since 2004 when Ivan directly impacted them in this particular way. My heart goes out to people there and many people vacationing who traveled there believing that nothing horrible, tropically happens in June or July. In truth, if and when conditions are right... we can always have something develop, but it's definitely extremely rare to worry on tropical weather in June. Ivan was a September hurricane, Islands always expect hurricanes in September but not June and July. The financial hit for their economies and toll of cleaning up and rebuilding will be high.

July is tomorrow and tomorrow Major Hurricane Beryl will barrel through the Islands and then we will look down the road for what is next. For now... Jamaica is in the track, unless the track pulls more to the North and there is some indication it might in the discussion from the NHC at 5 PM. In theory it pulls a li'l bit N of West then curves back and continues it's current track. But, in my mind all bets are off until we see what Beryl does and it's good to be aware and prepared when you see a Hurricane to your South or you see it's cone go directly over your beautiful Island.

So let's look at Wind Probs.
They insinuate more than explain.
Hard to understand.
Directions on the NHC page.
As with models the trend is important.
When I see KW NOT in a wind prob for TS winds.
I'll be more of a believer.
By the way Beryl slowed to 18 MPH.
Still fast, but not as fast.

More so... 

When Grand Turk, Havana and Isle of Pines..
aren't in the wind probs...
I'll be more of a believer.

In theory areas in Texas are concerned as to whether Beryl can miss Mexico as Alberto  did and now TD 3 is doing. So why are Havana, Key West and more so why is Grand Turk in the Wind Probs? I understand them, they are important but my point is the trend is important. 

Speakng of TD 3 forecast to become Chris....

That said... 

I'm just showing one model here and it's the GFS and for no other reason than to show you the High Pressure and how it literally pushes everything West. EPAC gets a system, Beryl is over by the Yucatan and 96L tries and close off into a system. But the High is alive and breathing. Directing everything our way and down the tropical road every time the High inhales or is eroded by a system on it's Western Edge Florida and the Bahamas will have to hold their breath and be playing chicken with any storms that forms and rides around the High. Commonly, early in the season there's not enough there to lift a storm to the NW or North and it's common for storms to get a name and a bit of fame and collapse in the Caribbean. This year is different, so Beryl is not expected to collapse and die in the Caribbean Graveyard ...this year is different.

Stay tuned, stay prepared and aware and I'll update as needed.

I say this with all my heart......seriously praying and sending prayers to the people in the Islands in the path of Beryl. I'm a person who prays and sometimes my oldest son teases me and tells his siblings to do what Mommy does and "think good thoughts" but hey it's who I am. I know this can be a deadly set up and I hope against the reality of what we have that due to the size of Beryl and the fast movement, damages will be mitigated but in my gut I have a feeling many will be as surprised to see the amount of destruction as were surprised to see it become a Hurricane let alone a Major Hurricane!

Beryl as a Cat 4 wasn't on anyone's Bingo Card.
Beryl has always gone quietly into the night.
Beryl's name may be retired, we'll see.

Just a matter of time.
Every island has it's hurricane.
Every coastal town gets a landfall.
Towns inland get inland flooding.
Just a matter of time.

4 PM

TD 3 in BOC aka 94L

Advisory at 5 PM.
Could be named TS Chris ...time will tell.

As for Beryl...
...looks like a beta I had once.

Waiting on 5 PM discussion and cone.

120 MPH 
Moving W at 21 MPH
Forecast to be a Category 4 at Landall.

First off not talking on what could happen down the tropical road IF it gets into the Gulf of Mexico or hooks right towards Florida or ...... any possible dangerous this is real, happening and attention needs to be paid towards the Islands in the path of this historical hurricane on the last day of June. Tomorrow is July, Landfall will probably be after midnight so it'll go down as a July Landfall. Does it really matter? Statistics are fun for scientists and people in Academia. I am a college library, I know Academia well and while it's all relevant down the road for hurricane research what is most relevant now is that the people in the path of Beryl take it seriously and do all they can do find a place to hunker down or evacuate if they can to protect life and limb as the old saying goes.

Homes will be destroyed, businesses and storm surge will rearrange the beaches and it'll take a Cat 5 Miracle for no one to die and most likely the name Beryl will be retired. 

NHC points out it's continued intenfisication as it's moving fast towards Landfall. Anyone in the Islands needs to heed all watches and warnings as if their life depends on it as their life depends on it.

Alberto made Landfall.
Beryl will make Landfall. 
This is not some one hit wonder song...

Invest 96L is behind Beryl.
Further out towards Africa.
There's an incredible wave...
...higher than the previous ones.
Tropical Trouble indeed.

NHC has it at 140 MPH at Landfall.
11 AM is below.

Wrote this on Twitter in real time.
While thoughts were flowing fast.... the strong, steady breeze at the beach..
Before a hurricane makes Landfall.
I'll be back later today.
Read the previous post please from 9 AM.

Ignorance is bliss, yet as people wake up this morning in the Islands (locals, travelers, tourists) they are finding out there is a Cat 3 Hurricane coming. Many most likely can't believe what they are seeing but know warnings have been hoisted and Major Hurricane Beryl is on the way...soon as in tonight & in the early hours of July 1st. Many may not be able to get out in time... no one expected this in June. Especially people who are not here online obsessing and trading thoughts on every model that showed this could happen. People book cruises, trips feeling this neck of the tropics is safe in June & early July. Old timers always know it could happen, but a lot of people who have not seen a Major Hurricane hit relatively early in the season won't wrap their head around it until it's already there. Much like everyone tells me... "Miami never gets hit, they always turn away" because they do not remember the years when hurricanes did not turn away. Well ...something changed. And, we had a heads up all May when early tropical waves began rolling off of Africa, granted they were very low but they were rolling & looked healthy. Then later in June the wave train began and became real, and yet we were talking waves ending up by the Yucatan ... weak, trying to form into a storm. And, we had Alberto... Then came Invest 95L & there's no going back to the bliss of denial and ignorance. The Wave train is healthy, alive and Invest 96L is already at 70% red directly behind Major Hurricane Beryl. Hopefully there will be some variation in track as usually there is ...because the last thing we need is for Trinidad, Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia to have a back to back hit. This could be brutal, really brutal and talking during & after during rescue & recovery. Beryl has a small core, it's not a huge hurricane but the more it strengthens the wider the area of influence it has and the further out the winds will go. And, while those winds may not blow as much as the islands in the direct path of Cat 3 or Cat 4 Beryl. This is happening. Take heed and prepare in Houston, in Mobile Alabama, in Destin, in Tampa, in Miami, in Bimini and up the whole Eastern Seaboard as Fish may not be a popular dish that Mother Nature is serving this hurricane season. From Key West to Maine, including New England, pay attention and prepare for hurricane season ...this year! Don't waste money, save it for emergencies. Save it for evacuation and/or hurricane supplies. Buy a generator if you are staying, on Mike's Weather Page there are discounts & I'm sure there's sales on Amazon. Longest post or tweet ...whichever you want to call it ...I've ever written but since I can I am... take the 2024 Hurricane Season forecasts for a busy season seriously. Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power.

So is being Hurricane Ready... if and when you're in the cone of a hurricane down the line this busy hurricane season.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Anyone who knows Jim Williams and knows the list he puts out every year of top 20 cities ... know Miami is on that list as several spots in the Cuba and the Bahamas. Recurvature is not a given and in any given year it's just a matter of time. Jim, in fact takes into account years between Landfall and has a whole system of when some city goes on his list as it's time is up... some day, some year soon... so be prepared and take the time now while it's quiet in your part of the world to get a plan, do hurricane prep and figure out what will works best for you and your loved ones...significant others, parents, children, pets...

Cat 3 Major Hurricane Beryl - Intensifying... Cat 4 Before Landfall

Good morning....
But not for the Islands in the path of Beryl.

Staying short term today.
This is a dangerous situation for the Islands.

Grenada, St. Vincent.
Barbados always first.

I can and will update later. Reality bites sometimes and it hit on the last day of June as a strong tropical storm named Beryl spent the night doing Rapid Intensification all night as we watched knowing that a worst case scenario was unfolding faster than the eye was evolving into what became a Major Hurricane about to make Landfall. 

Some island in this map will get Landfall.

This is the most deadly, wicked part of Beryl.
Inner core...

Still evolving and rearranging.
Oh and it'll wobble...

Bottom line this morning is every port of call in the path needs to rush all preparations as this will be arriving early this evening in some areas and it's been a long time since these islands have been visited by a Major Hurricane. And, being June a day away from July I am sure many didn't believe or couldn't imagine that the worst case scenario could indeed happen. Gotta be honest, this part of the tropics has been fairly lucky of late and hasn't had a date with this sort of destiny...and yes there is another disturbance behind it that is now at 70% red for development. Next name up is Chris and while we are currently obsessing on Beryl, we will soon obsess on Chris.

Unless 94L ...still there steals that name.

Now is not the time to talk on "it's too early for this" this is a life threatening, disaster evolving in real time and the islands should have structural damage that's hard to imagine and I don't have the time to go into details. 
NHC advisories.
Local advisories.

There are tourists who went on trips, cruises and charters "knowing hurricanes don't happen down there in June" and this is happening fast and furious, seriously fast and furious. So know this IS happening. 

And, the predictions for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be wicked and wild have been verified. 

If you live upstream in the US in Florida or Texas or Carolinas and every place in between ... please I cannot overemphasize this enough... know that a hurricane such as Beryl may come to your town, your home and you need to prepare and have a plan. There should be no more denial, Beryl is reality biting.

@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather .. Insta whatever.

Music later.....more details later.... after I drink more coffee as I was awake last night until almost four watching Beryl do all her gyrations, wrapping up into an Intense hurricane knowing I'd wake up to a Major Hurricane.

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Hurricane Beryl


There’s not much to say … and this picture tells it all anyway!.  

Watching history happening before our eyes. Beryl intensifing against all odds . To be fair the models said it would.  And the Hurricane Center said it could. And it did!

There’s an eye. It’s got a tight core! 

Banding that looks like long arms spread out wide taking it all in….

Perfect form tonight. 

This is the stuff legends are made of…

Maybe it’ll be a Major… as forecast. Cat 3 or 4?  Or more?

For how long? Does it matter? It is what it is and tonight it’s incredible to watch as we flit from loop to loop like stalker butterflies watching a metamorphosis before our eyes.

Full update in the morning. At this rate I’ll fall asleep watching… staring … looping 

Sweet Tropical Dreams… i’m f u can fall asleep!


Listening to Ghost Story in the background 

Friday, June 28, 2024

5 PM UPDATE... TD2 FORMS ...FORECAST to be a 105 MPH Hurricane in the Caribbean... What Will be 96L is Right Behind it - 94L Hanging On at 30%


TD 2 Forms

Note NHC has it as a Hurricane on Sunday
Before the Islands.
No watches and warnings yet.
Imagine the 11 PM may add them in...

I did think they would use Dvorak.
Why I use it so often to be "sure"

Forecast to be a 105 MPH Hurricane.

It's worth saying that the intensify forecast is probably cautious and on the low side of some of the models that show it as much stronger. Nice and easy usually is the best way to proceed, especially as it's very far out still even tho it is moving West at 21 MPH a good clip for a Tropical Depression. 

Wind Probabilities are very wide spread. Important to remember there's a graphic on the site that shows wind probabilities. There are many more products than "the Cone" to help you prepare for this should it move towards your home ....

Bottom line is that we are a bit in unchartered territory as there are few hurricanes we can compare this to for this time of year, though there have been many before the time of satellite imagery as history goes way back as far back as the first sailor or settler had a pen and ink to record in their weather journal.

One thing I want to emphasize is that this is the FIRST CONE and often it changes in various ways down the road. A few models intensify this fast and the NHC usually stays conservative in the beginning. And, that's good as there's no reason to scream "SHARK!!" when it's just forming. For the NHC to forecast 105 MPH down the road as it is near Jamaica on the Southern end and Hispaniola and Cuba at the more Northern end says much on how strong it could become should those models verify.  

Latest models as of 6 PM Friday 
Going off in a while.
I'll update Saturday Evening.
Have a good weekend ...
...check out your Hurricane Supplies.
Let TD 2 Forecast to be a Hurricane ... your wake up call if you were waiting.

Please keep reading...
if you haven't. 
Live Blogged all day ... I knew there'd be an upgrade.
And there was....


4 PM

Just this one image tells the story. As much as I love color and ya all know I do... some things are black and white. Just the facts. Small core, strongest in the center... NHC is issuing advisories at 5 PM. I'll update with the Cone... with details, facts and information vs innuendo and rumors. ;)

Li'l dot in the center of the white.
Maybe not really anything.
But they better name this fast... 

Waiting for the details... and warnings for Islands.


Now 100%
Upgrade to TD?

Here's a loop of our system.
I'm a fan but I'll be honest.
It's one problem has been an elongated center.

Not the best signature for a TS or a TD
Maybe they will go with PTC
Most likely TD2 

Waiting on NHC to put out a product, hopefully at 5 PM, and in the meantime going to put something up here with the caveat that many online are upset they would put out a "fake cone" as only NHC should make a "cone" and yet everyone knows it's Accuweather. So leaving this here out of mere curiosity as to how close the NHC cone comes to Accuweather's jump the cone make a map with a cone.

Clearly says Accuweather... 
oh they called it an 
(not sure on that term usage...
..sounds like an eye patch ...)

So we will compare and contrast later.

Stay tuned.......
Is 5 PM later?

Keep reading what was written at 9 AM

* **
9 AM

We knew that last night....
..a yellow X was definitely coming.
Faster than an advisory for 94L

Always fun chatting with the weather crew on Twitter, especially after a long day, so while debating on when NHC would upgrade Invest 95L I made the comment I was more curious if they'd put up a yellow X for the next wave... and by the way there's a huge one behind that as well. This is as if it's late July and prime time for the African Wave Train... in late June. This Hurricane Season definitely seems as if Mother Nature if feeding those tropical waves some sort of energy drink ...because they are definitely over producing for the end of June.

Yes, I was more curious when the NHC would put a yellow X on their main page than if 95L does or doesn't get designation. It's only a matter of time for 95L to be upgraded... but to see confidence in the next wave that models have been aggressive with says a lot.

So in waiting mode this morning to see if NHC is writing good discussion for a 11 AM advisory or if we continue in waiting mode til 5 PM. Whenever it happens it's a done deal for now. 

Dense Central Core.
Storms exploding.

You dont't need a loop to figure this one out.

First look long range, as I know everyone is with this system, the bottom line really depends on it's Intensity forecast as Intensity will steer this storm. A stronger storm may pull more to the North (WNW to NW then NNW) vs a weaker storm battling negative conditions in the Eastern Caribbean and if that happens it'll keep  more to the West as the dark black line in the middle of the models above hints at.

That's basic tropical meteorology. Not much to add other until we see a Cone and Discussion from the NHC.
So let's look at short term.

Mr. Weatherman on YouTube does a great job.
Why do I say "great" you wonder.
He makes short videos that explain much.
He packs a lot into a shorter video than most.
And as time is money for many.
He's a good one to go with ...
...if you don't have a lot of time.
Especially when a system is in the Caribbean.

So he put this graphic up and he said with time he will narrow down the goal lines there, but for now this is the area in the Islands that could be looking at a developing hurricane on approach. Again, how much Beryl pulls to the N or not says a lot. A more WNW NW track takes it over the Greater Antilles and that may put a big road block in it's dreams of making it to the mainland somewhere. A track more to the West to the West to the WNW could put it over warmer water with less mountains in the SW Caribbean and give it more running room to grow. 

Monday the EURO has it zooming past the Islands.
In the Caribbean and what will be 96L
right behind it.

I'll udpate later today.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 
Twitter mostly weather
Insta whatever...

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Updated 3PM - 80% RED Invest 95L Almost There...Wrapped, Getting Banding & Developing a Center. 94L Still There Close to NHC Possible Formation Zone. 95L Has a Friend Following It.

80% chance of upgrade to TD or TS
Recon goes in tomorrow.... the old Yellow Circle to be clear.

Again development could occur in the yellow grid
Not where the X is marked.
Potential development.

Below is a pic that shows both areas.
94L and 95L
Also the SAL to the N of 95L

94L no SAL
95L lots of SAL to it's North.
SAL inhibits development....
..yet everyone once in a while a storm does develop.
This could be that year!

While 95L has a look and a kind of spin, note it lacks the convection that 94L has despite it's lack of substantial center currently. While 95L is in the ocean swimming westbound, the environment is dry and there is less ample moisture for it and that's why it lacks the deep red visible on 94L in a moister environment. Not easy to get a named storm in this region in June, but this year we have two contenders.  And, 95L while moving fast is way out there still, with miles to go before we sleep.

Hello Thursday in the Tropics. I had to go out with someone to the doctor's office for routine kind of things, but it was early in the day and barely had time for coffee. Looped with crappy service as that part of Raleigh always has weak signals, but followed along best I could. Home now, madly looping and going over data on Invest 95L as well as 94L close to land, weaker but still there and do not forget about 95L's friend behind it that models pick up on as well. Late June feels a whole lot like late July this year and we will soon find out if the forecasts for a busy season as if on steroids verifies!

On the left we have a big blob of convection that is Invest 94L that wasn't expected to develop  until after it passes this area and moves into the BOC as seen by the yellow grid on the image above that is the development zone. Still gotta tell you it's impressive for it to have held together and made it this deep into the Caribbean; if there was no Invest 95L it would be the name of the game today. However, everyone is all a flutter over every variation in new model runs for Invest 95L that has a track in the near future carved in stone yet......intensity m models have it everywhere from a Tropical Storm to even a strong Hurricane. It's important to remember it never was supposed to develop before this area near the Yucatan, so if it's gonna do something we will know soon. NHC has it at 30% development for the next 7 days...10% in the 2 day.

Looks close to TD status.
ASCAT pass showed it almost closed off.
Actually fairly beautiful for an Invest.

Short term models are clustered so closely they look like something a child would draw with crayons, tracing over the track of the other over and over. But down the tropical road the model tracks diverge. Some models show it pull ing North towards a break in the ridge towards a frontal boundary dipping down. Other models take it into the Gulf of Mexico. We have all sorts of models. We have short term models, medium range models and Superman using his Xray vision Long Range Models to try and find where landfall might be, scanning around for any port of call with beautiful beach 95L might want to visit. Ensemble models spray out every possible track and show us where there's a concensus while we stare at the one track that takes it to Daytona or Destin or Biloxi Mississippi! Don't get lost in the spray of possible tracks, get lost in the overall pattern of movement.

So much agreement in the beginning.
Then model tracks go off the rails.

This is typical and until a system has formed and Recon has obtained data to put into the models that will be, in theory, better on the next run we look at short term models and we peek at long term models; we all look at the long term models some just refuse to admit it and complain more than 60% of Weather Twitter is posting the doomsday model 385 hours out. As for Intensity you can see how wide apart the models are on 95L's future intensity. Obviously, one model that's fairly good with intensity makes this a hurricane to remember.

In truth.........we will remember this Invest for no other reason than it's actually here, in late June looking as if it's about to get it's own Cone from the NHC still too far East to get Recon into it. But, it's moving steady and fast and it'll be an issue for the Islands and at some point a Cone will show up whether it's a Potential Tropical Cyclone Cone or a real designated TD or TS. Beryl should be the name, unless 94L has some real surprises for us. 

Oh and there's a system behind 95L that many models develop as well as named tropical storms suddenly litter the possibilities on the meteorological maps the models toss at as every so many hours. 

This coming Monday, July 1st above.
EURO develops 95L (not shown, same place)
GFS tries and develop both.
(no surprise there right?)

Long range.
GFS develops something in EPAC
(there's a surprise far quiet)
Develops 95L
Messy blob like area close in to FL
Just rain but something to think on.

Friday, a week from tomorrow.

That's it for now. Wondering if NHC will update 95L today or wait til tomorrow for first morning visible and for it to totally come together. Models all have it in the Islands as a developed storm on Monday so would think they would want to put up a Cone one way or the other for a heads up as a prelude to putting up\
watches late Friday but every year the NHC is a bit different of late and they have of late done a good job, so they will do what they gotta do. 

Stay tuned.

Will update later today if the NHC blinks on a potential cyclone cone though without it being a TD they may wait til tomorrow morning. Time will tell and time is rushing like a river out of control in the Midwest. 

Sweetest Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

One of my favorite JB songs...