Invest 94L vs Caribbean Blob. Everyone's Talking But No One Has Solid Answers. Gorgeous Fall Day in Raleigh NOT Wasting It Watching Models That Change Every Couple Hours. Bottomline --- It Has a Chance.

 

Let's start here. 94L

X marks the spot it is currently.

Arrow shows you "formation zone"

It can literally form anywhere....

...in that big yellow sausage.

Not a Cone.

Just a Zone of formation.

Remember that.

Up close and personal.

Look at that spin!

Beautiful structure.

Banding, nice center.

We see it well as it's "naked"

Phrase Mets use to mean...

"convection being sheared"

See the one little puff going South?

I won't lie this is one aestically beautiful swirl known as Invet 94L out just West of Africa and because there's a high to it's NE and then another one forms above it soon it is forecast to get way farther West than Kirk or Leslie even dreamed. That doesn't mean it's going to hit Miami, Tampa or New Orleans all the cities on the media parade of cities to travel to while covering a landfalling hurricane. Lots of fun and lots of attention but it doesn't mean it could not be an issue IF it stays alive and thrives and gets into our part of the Hurricane Basin. First comes the Islands and if it forms closer in to the Islands then it's a problem for the Islands and as we stairstep our way WNW or into the Caribbean we will wonder and worry if it could make a USA landfall. Bermuda will be watching too, trust me.

Positives:

Incredible tight beautiful circulation especially from far away. 

Looks like the Cosmos in ways..

It's far, far away.

Negatives:

As it's blocked from escaping up into the North Atlantic currently if it gets into our part of the world it could be pulled North close to our beautiful coastline and we will need to watch. First it has to stay alive and prosper. It needs to keep it's convection vs losing it's convection

Let's go wide.

94L is that round green ball in MDR.

Close to Africa still.

So you must be wondering:'

"OMG what's in the CARIB?"

Convection.

Blob of convection being watched.

Doesn't have a circle even.

The video below addresses that.

Again... 

When there's black to the North.

That's dry air, high pressure.

To it's West is moisture.

It's stuck down there for now.

A Blob vs an Invest 94L

If I was a gambler I'd say

"here's where you place your bets!!"

I'm not a gambler.

Neither are sure things.

So we gonna sit and watch....

watch satellite imagery

watch football

watch the beautiful fall colors

breathe in, breathe out

What's life all about...

Not going to waste my day...

..waiting on the next model run.

If you have nice weather.

Get out there and enjoy it!

It'll be gone soon.

Like the Northern Lights...

(oh my gosh I fell in love)

...last night just a hint of purple.

Then gone.

Til next time....

Faintest column of purple

Barely there in the Indigo Sky.

Have a blessed, beautiful day!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather...

...Insta whatever.

If you know you know... IYKYK

Once upon a time there was a weatherman...

...named Dave Schwartz on TWC

He loved this song.

Sometimes he'd even dance for a minute late at night on air.

He'd explain how air goes up and air comes down.

Old timers watched him.

Young Mets watched him growing up.

He was a class act and a good meteorologist.

And, he loved this song ;)

Right now... 94L is a spinning wheel.

needs to keep it's convection

to be a hurricane.

You can watch models...

...ride a painted pony 

or dance today

You know what I'm doing ;)