165 MPH Cat 5 Milton 918 MB (Very Low) NHC Believes It's Going to Make the Turn. Some Warnint, gs Moved a Bit S. Tampa Bay Watching, Waiting. How Do You Forecast a Rare Strong Cat 5 ... Not Easily.

 

Current IR loop for Milton above.

Slowly moving away from the Yucatan.

Earlier Dvorak loop below

Loop from earlier showed Eastward movement.

Currently hint of N of East.

ENE has been forecast track

(forecast means was forecast...)

NHC says it's beginning to make the turn.

Addressing this because people ask.

And, told you I'll be honest.

Dvorak measures intensity.

You can see the clear black, white and gray

Bottom loop it's one solid round ball of gray

eye wall and eye very visible.

Changes in the Cone. Moved a bit South.

Or rather Southen end expanded.

New Cone just N of Fort Myers Beach.

 FMB has a hurricane Warning.

Sanibel, Captiva in Cone.

Moving East with the Cone.

Easily half or more of The Lake in Cone.

That's big as previously barely touched The Lake.

Then edged into The Lake more and more...

I watch this as I've taught Florida History.

The Lake and Hurricanes has history.

Waves on a lake that's like an ocean.

Can cause trouble.

Moving East with the Cone.

  Cone nudged a bit South.

S of PSL to just N of Jupiter.

Palm Beach is S of Jupiter.

Watch 11 PM advisory carefully.

Still far to N of Tampa......

....on E side ends just before Daytona.

Daytona has a Hurricane Warning.

Hurricane winds and impacts outside Cone.

If in or near the cone.

Prepare as if you will get Milton.

Let's talk about Milton.

What you need to know ....

...What you need to think on.

To best prepare for the storm.

NOTE BREAKING NEWS AS I TYPE

Recon finds pressure falling.

Milton trying to get stronger than 165 MPH.

Going to be extremely honest as there have been some short term problems with the forecast of Milton, and the problem with short term problems is they can sometimes become long term problems. Milton very clearly moved East (not ENE) and for a long while so to verify the original game plan it would need to pull NE much sharper than previous forecast. When NHC puts out movement it's "forecast movement" and sometimes that lags behind real movement and then eventually it does make the turn as forecast. They are not programming Milton so Milton does what it does and they have to adjust as they do when they extend warnings and put out special advisories with breaking news such as stronger wind speed. As much as we know we do not have control yet on every aspect of weather.... NHC does the best they can.

Why would Milton not perform as the NHC and all the models show it should perform? 

Current models from Tropical Tidbits.

Note a small spread when it exits FL

And, that's a concern for WPB

Should this continue.

So why Milton misbehaving?

I put this image up earlier.

Hoping Content Wxr would add arrows.

He did and this is a bit of the why.

Yellow on map is DRY AIR/HIGH PRESSURE

Hurricanes avoid High Pressure to stay alive.

Milton been stuck between a rock and hard place.

High pressure to it's W was pushing it East.

For a while.... that's why.

As dangerous as a Category 5 Hurricane is with 165 MPH winds it still can only go where the atmosphere allows it to go. It's kind of "squished" to use a term that means a kid who is stuck between two older relatives in the backseat of a small car. It can only eventually go NE and the angle of that direction means everything. If it's a more N of NE it makes landfall further UP the coast North of Tampa (in Cone) and if it pulls a bit further to the right it can make landfall in bottom end of the Cone. Or go straight up into Tampa Bay temporarily wiping Pinellis County off the maps and putting South Tampa under water as well as all those beautiful homes in the Bay or near down near Sarasota under water. NHC doesn't know yet. But the Cone is a good one to follow. Hurricanes stay away from High Pressure and move towards Low Pressure, generally.

Why would Milton go East so long, let alone it's ESE dip and dawdle down by Yucatan so long? 

Very intense Major hurricanes carry their own "generator" with them as a child carries a backpack. A hight forms aloft over the 165 MPH Hurricane and sometimes they go longer in the same direction creating their own mini temporary steering current insulating it a bit from negative conditions and making it try and refuse to perfectly follow the plan. It has a lot to do with kinetic energy and a bit of perpetual motion. I've seen it time and time again with stubborn Major Hurricanes that have such perfect form and visually Milton is perfect but realistically deadly, destructive and dangerous. At some point, as we see currently, the Major Hurricane begins to follow the game plan. Also, there's an atmospheric set up creating a "Jet" that helped Milton intensify way beyond the 11 AM forecast advisory shown below. Trying to keep this as simple as possible so it's easily understood. 

Earlier forecast kept it peaked at 145 MPH.

Listen mistakes happen...

..especially with such a rare hurricane.

And NHC adjusts in real time.

New forecast as off 5 PM.

Time will tell.

Did you think this would be easy?

Try working at the NHC.

Buck stops there....

What do you do?

I know a Cat 5 is scary.

Been there.

More fun to chase a Cat 1 or Cat 2

then have a Cat 5 chase you!

What you do is this.......

If you are in the Cone you prepare as if you will get the EYE of Milton. Even though the NHC puts a line in the cone know the hurricane can wiggle wiggle within that Cone. So if you are In THE CONE you are in the Zone for the most destructive winds and with this hurricane and a storm surge like we have not seen in years anywhere and Tampa Bay that has always been a "worst case scenario" for storm surge. Read the previous blog where I went long on these issues. In short every low lying beach, coastal house or business near a creek, a Bay, a cove and a river can and will get inundated with extreme storm surge that seeks out every nook and cranny in the curve of a river and as the water rises your beautiful home or condo will be cut off from land like a little castle with a bit moat around it. South Tampa could all be underwater, Pinellas County a peninsular can be underwater. People died from water. If you don't believe me check out the still climbing death toll from Helene as people are still missing in North Carolina...from flooding. 

What do you do if you are NOT in the Cone but NEAR the Cone?

You prepare as if you could end up in the Cone, hope and pray you don't and give thanks nothing that bad hurt and if it happens in 2 weeks again or next year... do it again...prepare always! 

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. NHC will move the Cone when they see fit so don't "get caught with your pants down" screaming "but the Cone was to the North" because every six hours the Cone gets adjusted. If you are near the Cone like North Palm Beach on the South side of it on the East Coast and Daytona Beach on the North side of the Cone on the East Coast side. NHC will narrow the cone down, don't play chicken with a Category 5 Hurricane. 

Homestead after Andrew.

Homestead was inland.

This wasn't storm surge.

This was CAT 5 WINDS.

If you stay in an evacuation zone insisting you'll be okay (and I pray you are) send any impt info to relatives out of town, tell them where you are staying, take a sharpie and write your SS# on your arm so it's easier to identify your body and let your loved ones know you were not one of the lucky one that somehow managed to survive to tell the tale. 

Know every person I know who lived through a Category 5.........never ever stays and infact my 

daughter-in-law a little toddler spent Andrew in the bathtub with her mother in Palmetto with a mattress over their head and their house blowing apart and their father (strong big man) with his back against the bathroom door stopping it from buckling. She lives in Miami, should a hurricane like this put her in the Cone she flies out with her little kids and her husband my son probably would drive North with his siblings so they could drive back when it's safe...

You don't mess around with a Category 5 Hurricane.

The Mayor of Miami told residents to go ahead and put up hurricane shutters even though they are just under a Tropical Storm Warning. That raised many questions as normally we don't but sometimes we do. And, you know your house. Someone asked me last night about shutters, they've been adding on and one window isn't completely finished (OMG) and should they cover it or put up shutters? Some people have jalousie windows that are broken and well not everyone's house is in perfect condition. If you live where you're exposed to the elements, the neighbor has huge metal lawn art they aren't taking down or a tree that creaks against the window when the wind blows... put up shutters on that window! Put sandbags by sliding glass door so popular in South Florida just in case there's flooding or the waves on the pool near the door might get into your house (happens trust me) you know you're own concerns. Do what you gotta do.

Bridges in Miami are locked "down" so people can get out if they need and things change. They aren't messing around with Milton that should stay far away but give Miami Tropical Storm conditions.

Things change........we must be ready to adjust.

Lastly a strong hurricane that has been strong a long time has a tendency to hold onto energy longer than expected. Like a person dieting, they splurge gain weight and then weight goes back to "that weight" you can't seem to stay under. Hurricanes can be like that...but eventually a hurricane hits land and winds die down but unfortunately people die along with the winds as they are decreasing down. 

Storm surge is forever until it floods the last piece of land it can get to and even If Martin becomes a Cat 1 hurricane know it's forecast to hit as a MAJOR the storm surge the "dome of water" it's been pushing along since Mexico is going to be a Cat 5 Storm Surge. Below is an image after Hurricane Florence that was a Cat 5 for a long time, wound down to a Tropical Storm and the TS hit NC as a TS not a Cat 5 and this was the result, an inland flood as every river valley in Eastern NC flooded. 

Winds die down... storm surge keeps on rolling.

That's it.

I wanted this to be short.

But it's a historic hurricane.

Deadly since Mexico... 

I don't want people to not understand the set up.

People ask "why" but "Y" is a crooked letter.

You don't have to understand "why"...

...you were told to evacuate.

You just do.

Don't mess around with Milton.

Much love and prayers.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Mostly weather on Twitter

Insta whatever........

Cute song but serious message to remember

Don't Mess Around with Milton!!