Tropics Today. Getting Help Into Worst Hit Places in W NC and Power Back to FL GA SC and parts of NC and TN. Where Do We Go From Here?

 

Models show conflicting tracks.

Orange circle down 10%

Concept it forms later vs sooner.

(works for me)

Delayed formation...

The 7 day Rain signature shows clues

Where's the most rain?

Gulf of Mexico.

yes, we are busy.

Nothing impending.

Area in GOM a concern.

Most others will stay far away.

Can't promise that but we'll see.

Divide the Image above in half.

West past the Islands.

East of the Islands.

The NOAA map for Oct 3rd thru Oct 7th.

Shows a 'low" crossing FL

Nothing strong.

But time will tell.

You can see the division here in this image.

Mimic shows moisture.

Yes, concerned at what's in Carib.

Looks similar doesn't it?

Adding in something Dabuh said...

..we are old friends going way back.

This sounds more like Francine than Beryl or Helene.

Never easy when 2 vorts are fighting it out.

There is some talk an African Wave...

..could make it across deep into October.

Will see..

Will be back tomorrow.

Or late today if something huge happens.

Note there are named storms I'm not discussing.

I think we all need a break and they aren't near here.

NHC be very busy.

Hopefully aid is getting in to W NC.

E TN also to some degree.

Many in GA and SC without power.

Obviously FL where Helene made landfall lost power.

So here are some thoughts below.

Feel free to read.

Not trying to be morbid but it's morbid times.

Hope and joy when some found alive.

There were 1,000 people missing in W NC.

A Thousand unaccounted for...

so death Toll can go way higher than 100.

Just being honest.

Tragic, devastating.

Why the NHC said "catastrophic"

They rarely use that word.

Katrina like word.

So have a good week.

Stay safe. Stay well.

Try to find joy where you can.

Show love... 

...bring Unity back.

In an unstable, dangerous world weather has often been my haven. Many parts of the world that I spent what seems like a lifetime studying for my degree in International Relations are aflame with conflict and  the chance of escalations that we dare to even think on nut weather has been my safe haven. Storms come, storms go and the beautiful flow seen on the water vapor imagery loop relaxes me the way one would stare at a Lava Lamp.

We got lucky with a quiet MDR that while it did produce storms, many of them stayed safely out at sea. Yes I know there are ships at sea, but my focus is on populated places. But, as I have said repeatedly in this blog "just because the MDR is dead" doesn't mean the hurricane season is over as the SW Carib always produces in set ups such as these. 

Hurricane Mitch.

2nd Deadliest Atlantic Hurricane.

Wikipedia graphic.

Remember the deaths came from TS Mitch.

Not Cat 4 Mitch

We have a similar problem in the mountains.

It was all about WATER not wind.

Mudslides, landslides, flash flooding.

Hurricane Mitch, that formed down in the SW Carib and grew into a monstorous rain bomb spinning with Major Hurricane winds killing an unknown number of people who lived in remote villages when the heavy rains from huge Mitch pounded inland. Water runs downhill carrying with it the lives of everyone in it's way. The toll went from 5,000 to 6,000 to we don't know for sure how many even but the number was set at over 10,000 people. These people and their lives are no less important because they live in a remote village in the mountains and valley's far away from our seemingly civilized world. And, I say this as there is some perception that things like this don't happen in the USA but far away in third world countries. 

They do but they just don't happen as often. And, now days when we can warn people days, weeks ahead of time that such an event is coming we want to believe we have more power here than other faraay places. It's the wrong way of seeing things, especially this year when water and landslide raged in Europe the last few months and dumped mud everywhere in beautiful places no one equates with landslides and flash floods.

America is no different, but we have this illusion we are different and somehow "safer" from deadly disasters. Helene was more like a raging Forest Fire across several states except it raged with water not fire. The result is sadly the same, death, destruction and a sense of loss that is impossible to convey.

This was the worst set up possible for this sort of horror show in real life. A huge monsterous circulation moving fast after landfall with storm surge smashing into cities far from the center in Florida into the common hit Big Bend but rather than going NE out into the Atlantic it took aim at the Appalachian Mountains and the beautiful little subdivisions in Georgia and South Carolina far inland usually fairly safe from hurricanes.

What went wrong in conveying the message is to me a heavy weight as I tried, my friends tried, those of us who write blogs, do videos all with the purpose we might save one life, ten lives and help others be aware of the danger before the media runs with some headline flashing a Hurricane Warning or Flood Warning. The NHC tried hard to convey how the catastrophy awaiting in the mountains was just as important as the storm surge at the beaches at landfall. 

We think we are invincible in ways and yes denial sets in on many levels from the average person living in a quiet holler (like a valley) in the mountains worrying on how cold winter will be and suddenly there's a flash flood unlike any they remember, though they've heard their grandparents talk on but the way the mind works people think "but this is 2024" and somehow huge flooding events like the Johnston Flood only happened in 1889 not 1999 or 20024. We've seen historic flooding in Carolinas from Floyd, Florence and Matthew but rarely have we seen flash flooding that led to landslides that led to mudslides that covered villages, wiped out families and many cars found at the bottom of the debris have dead people in them and yes it'll take a while to dig through mud. Sorry to be graphic, but this is true.

I don't check the political party of a Governor when I say "glad they jumped on this fast" or ask "why did they wait so long to issue a State of Emergency declation" as it's a comment not a political attack or desire to applaud a specific politician. There's a saying I grew up with that is "the buck stops here" and I take it very literally when it comes to leadership. I'm thinking "why wait til Friday after the disaster" when the NHC was very clear stating there would be catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, mudslides in the mountainous areas where Helene would impact fast after landfall as she picked up speed and that is what gets a hurricane dangerous deep inland, when they are moving FAST and she was and her weather was often way ahead of her center's arrival. It's common to issue a State of Emergency before a Hurricane comes and if a county is spared, then it's dropped but by issuing it is ...it hastens the slow bureaucracy of red tape in getting the help train moving both physically with National Guard to money rolling in..  Time is money, ever moment time is lost... it takes longer to get recovery going. As people in the mountains have no power, no water, no cellphone service to call family or call for medical help as I am sure many were seriously injured in the deluge of mud flowing through their towns... cut off with no roads and bridges out so every day of delay getting help to someone can lead to a higher death toll plain and simply. Not a political discussion a practical one as we need to get help in as every minute I type someone, somewhere may be severly hurt and in danger of dying. 

I'm guessing many understand the dangers of storm surge and think because they live far inland in Georgia they are safe from hurricanes. That assumption is been smashed. I have friends who lost part of their home from falling trees and another lost 9 trees in their yard one of which took out there car; luckily that friend was away and while it's horrible to come home to that I'm glad my friend who recently lost her grown daughter who was a young mother living in NY to cancer after losing her husband a few years back. I'd hate to have thought she'd be alone in a house with pines falling and trust me they make a whole racket of noise as I live in the Carolinas and it doesn't take much for softwood pines to crack, drop branches or fall down onto property. When an Oak Tree loses a branch it sounds like a literally explosion and the house can shake even if the branch missed the house.

When you see a car wrapped around a tree at the bottom of Biltmore Village, know it's someone's car that floated away and some of those cars have dead people who tried to get out of the way of a flood, mudslide, landslide too late.

Nothing can stop landslides and mudslides in hurricanes when they slam into mountains, it happens all the time in Haiti and PR and as a person who works with hurricanes I'm always aware of that loss of life even though it's far away from my home in Florida or North Carolina.

It's the ugly side of weather.

Fall is beautiful. Spring is beautiful.

Fresh blowing cooler air in October is heavenly and snow falling in January is awesome.

But too much of anything is often not good.

Weve had too much and still the hurricane season is not over. 

Mike from Spaghetti Models says people get "hurricane fatigue" and I think I have that and yet I'm here.

When we know what the new system in the Caribbean does I'll be on it but trying to breathe today and get back onto some sort of routine. I have some holidays coming up soon and will be offline Thursday and Friday and hopefully I can get some rest then. 

Send money to reliable charities that have the infrastructure to get help where it's needed. 

I believe in prayer so I pray and anyone can think good thoughts and send them ...what you put out into the world usually comes back to you.

Not everything is political and we really need to come together as a people not divided by race, religion or party affiliation.

I was raised a Democrat, my uncle was the party leader in Florida and I was raised with politics in the sense of believing we can do more to help the world, especially those who are in need here close to where we live. I became a Republican because honestly I was pissed at an old boyfriend who was a Democrat running Young Democrats with him and on the day I was asked "what's your party affiliation" I thought and smiled and said "Republican" as some silent, silly victory that would only make sense to a girl just turning 18. I laugh at it to this day. Over time I changed back to Democrat and voted Republican If I thought it was a candidate better suited for the job. My husband is a Libertarian, fun meetings at breweries with intelligent dreamers.. I'll add. I try to explain I'm an Independent. I vote for the candidate I believe will do the best job for that particular job. Sometimes they both are great candidates and sometimes they both suck but the right to vote should never be underestimated. The only thing in 2024 we cannot totally change about ourselves is our blood type; we can lighten our skin a bit or add blush not to look so pale but bottom line seems to be blood type. That's just me. I listen to advice but I don't knee jerk vote for someone in any party that I don't think is the best person for that job. Plain simple. So nothing I say here about response to Helene is of a political nature but a question of why and a sense of sadness so many died. Time is money, time and money can help save lives. But an awareness on a local level of the danger and trying to get out of the way of it ..if possible... is better than no chance of escaping a catastrophe. 

Today I do weather. I keep my political thoughts inside. I do only wish good for my old pal who pissed me off lol and oh yes I'm giggling which has been hard to do the last few days. He's a good guy who seriously cares about trying to help people and make a difference in the world and my life has been better knowing him. But teenage girls do what they do when they are annoyed, I was that girl. 

This is the sign that resonates and I'll remember most from Helene. The UNITY sign from Greenville, South Carolina trying to rise above flooded waters. 

We can either sink or swim ....

...we need to come together.

Especially in tragedy.

Mother Nature isn't a party member.

She's actually a party wrecker.

She comes and wrecks all the fun.

Mean Helene wrecks fun ....

vs snow and fall color and spring flowers.

Love and prayers.

Hopefully my old friend/boyfriend doesn't read this.

He'd be horrified lol. 

I'm laughing. 

Yay!!

Sweet Pumpkin Spice Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta whatever...

Ps sorry on any typos...

..allergies bothering me..

Lots of mold here in standing water..