Models and the CAG in the Carib. African Waves Are Dust in the Wind. Which Name Will This Be? Helene? Issac? Have a Good Weekend!

 

Words matter.

"gradual development"

"broad area of low pressure could form"

"by the early to middle part of...

...next week"

CAG produces slow motion development.

By the time it forms....

...some other system usually steals the name.

Again, same image.

It can form in BOC.

It can fall in SW Carib.

Broad area of orange.....

Where and when it forms...

...makes all the difference.

Doors that are open for a storm to take slam shut if the area of development dawdles too long waiting to form. Then that the door is slammed shut and another one opens and so tracks come and go. And, we keep watching out of curiousity and for our own priorities. I know there will be another storm to impact Carolinas this year, but will it be from the East the South or a backdoor hit from the SW after a Gulf of Mexico system catches a fast front? I watch S FL as my kids and friends mostly live there and I love to be able to take a road trip or a fast flight down to enjoy them and the beautiful views on Biscayne Bay in Brickell. I don't want it all blown away. 

This region is one area.

This was the last ICON run.

EPAC and BOC

Hard to get development in both areas.

Can happen, rarely does.

GFS is still dreaming big.

Always finds some drama

Jean Lafitte liked Galveston too....

....then he ended up in Mobile too.

Many storms have tried to roll right into the center of Mobile Bay, very few have been able to and many a pirate has his their loot there or tried to reform. The area as great history and most likely it will not do this as it's just one run of many runs. If it takes a long time to form, it'll catch whichever front offers to give it a ride. Think of Gulf of Mexico hurricanes this time of year as hitchhikers.

https://mobilebaymag.com/jean-laffites-mobile/

https://texashighways.com/culture/history/galveston-legend-infamous-pirate-jean-lafitte/

Jimmy Buffett knew Mobile well and it's beauty is woven into his songs...

Pirates and hurricanes have much in common....

 They both want a salty piece of land.

Currently.... 

...we aren't sure what name this gets.

Or where it forms.

Or where it goes.

TAKE ALL MODELS WITH SEA SALT !!

It's nobody from nowhere still.

But if it develops, it'll be remembered.

Jimmy in Gulf Shores, Alabama.

Took take a cue from my friend Dabuh this morning and yes less words and more music and pics. It's Friday, can you believe that? Been a long week here, and yet it went fast. It's been of modeling and watching people post models online. Basically that's like saying we've been playing tiddly winks and building Lego projects and taking them apart fast to rebuild something else. 

There's no there ...there ....right now in the tropics. African Waves this year were not duds, they just rained over Morocco and no that's not a Jimmy Buffett song. I look at a loop once a day of the East Atlantic, that's it. Staying focused on Close In development and Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.  I've sort of gotten used to it by now and I know that things will pick up and we will be too busy to check email or get most of our other work done once things pick up. Models like Pick Up Sticks are old games and games my kids play when trying to keep the kiddies off their on Saturday.... and many people never had patience for these games or board games or gaming. And, some will tell you that those sticks have sharp points and are dangerous and little kids should not be playing with them and yet they do though my little grandson loves Pokemon but I digress.

People online complain about people putting up models online and those same people watch the models, they just don't admit they do. And kids in Middle School put up models that are available to anyone, anywhere that has an Internet convection or on their cellphone and it's like trying to shut Pandora's Box when the latch is broken and everything of importance is gone. We all do it, some don't admit to it and I'd rather show them with the caveat message loud and clear that model runs go bad faster than a piece of salmon you forgot to put in the fridge and left out overnight on the counter while you were running the GFS and the ICON and the EURO and that's the way it goes when there is no low there, no consistent convection and no lowered temperatures. And, still we watch models.

Models flip flop without a center. For those who know, know it's ridiculous to think one model on any given day is going to nail down the track of a storm without a small bit of convection trying to circulate already. Sometimes one does, almost always none do.

Those are my words for the day.

Look at the models if you enjoy it. Don't tell others not to. Don't pretend you don't also look at models.

Enjoy this weekend, get out if you can and enjoy it as there will be days down the road we can't so savor the day. 

Watch football. 

Watch baseball.

Do what you love. 

Give Love a Chance LOL.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever.....

Jimmy dreamt dreams. Jimmy lived out his dreams. What do you dream? Live your dreams!