Hurricane Harbor: Models Be Like a Jimmy Buffett Song... Models Circling Around.. Models to the Left and Models to the Right... Only Game in Town. Watching Carib For Formation NHC Has Orange Circle 40%

It helps to read the words on the NHC main page and it helps to listen to a long discussion on video that Mike gives and any number of awesome weather people and meteorologists as words matter. If you are reading this blog, you obviously know words matter.

NHC labels their 7 day graphic with the words "gradual development" with a 40% chance of formation and that's seven days out. For them to put that there, there's a reason. Late September into October often brings Major Hurricanes out of the Caribbean, it doesn't mean this one will be a Major but it means we take it more seriously than when there's a strong tropical wave westbound in May.

Mike, from Mike's Weather Page aka Spaghetti Models, loves to look at models ... I mean it's literally in the name of his page online. It's more so a site that helps people make sense of Spaghetti Models when models do odd things such as make hearts as they did with PTC8 or they literally look like spaghetti that fell out of the box and onto the floor.

People want to know, they like heads up information and are aware things can change fast. They often follow Mike with dedicaiton exactly because a NHC forecast changed fast in real time as they nudged a cone on last advisory before landfall when Charley happened, in the last cone but not in most of the original cones. Or when people in Miami were told Andrew would catch a cold front in late August and be pulled more to the NW and to go out and have a nice weekend and check back Monday to see where Andrew ended up. Miami knows where Andrew ended up. Yes, a local online Met said that and I'll never forget it, yes he was following the official forecast. Bryan Norcross said to rethink this as a new model not that trusted yet had indicated Andrew could get further West and explained that possibility along with the others. That was not HYPE that was Bryan Norcross giving all the facts as he is a very fact based person.

Mike was literally given an award...

..at the Gov Hurricane Conference!

People online complain some are hyping the forecast when they are simply giving you the various model output while reminding you that models change and they are long range and follow the NHC. That is not hype, that's giving people what they ask for and I'll add something few will tell you.... he is good at educating people how to use multiple weather sites online as he's a fantastic teacher. He's that teacher you loved in High School that taught you Geometry or Science who was fun and wove in examples from life and smiled often making you enjoy his class and you actually remember what he taught you as he made it easy to understand and fun to learn.

He breaks things down like a football game!

Offense, defense...what yard line the ball is on...

..in any given model run.

He reminds people it's more than models...

...but he's fascinated by models.

We all are but we know they change.

Especially when there is no system.

The NHC is modeling....

...trying to forecast development.

To give U the best heads up.

Knowledge is power

Here's the often ignored 5 day panel that I love.

Mike educating on how to use it.

Some love maps.

Some see maps and visually just can't...

And, it takes a village.

As we all process information differently.

Dabuh gives lyrics, rhymes, hearts and arrows.

IYKYK and I know..

People always telling him:
"I thought u were crazy, I finally understand"

LOL it's like a pattern ...

....once u see it u can't unsee it!

People think I'm right brain.

I write, I dance.... sound all right brain.

I'm very left brain, analytically so

Easy to look out a window & see it's raining.

Harder to look a week ahead.

Ten days ahead at a pattern.

So many factors.

Love it.

So that's my blog this Thursday Morning where the rain slowed down enough for a bird to start singing. Windows are open, a neighbor is blasting a Spanish radio station and as I sip my Nespresso it makes me smile reminding me of back "home" of Miami as I grew up in the Little Havana Section of Miami that used to be called "the Roads Section" near downtown, near the river, near the bay where my mother would take me every day when I was little to watch the clouds, waves and thunderheads forming in the sky that would eventually rain themselves out over us as we'd watch from the parked car as sheets of rain obliterated everything that was once in view. What a view from that point on Brickell. A changing array every day of clouds, views, sky, blue water and dark clouds moving across the landscape.