Hurricane Harbor: Hurricane Francine & Tropical Depression 7 ... Francine Center Stage Today. TD 7 Far Atlantic Off Africa. Yellow Circle OFF Carolinas Close IN... Lots of Waves

Francine

Cone for 11 AM shown soon...info at 10 AM:

TD 7 Below.

Discussion in video on yellow circle.

Honestly, decided to take the day and "enjoy" the coverage of Francine making landfall and do some things I need to do while watching online, on TWC and FOX Weather where experts give awesome analysis as well as ...hey... Cantore is on the road! Prayers this is not too bad for the people in the path of Francine, but again it's going to slam into all our favorite towns along the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi, including New Orleans and up into Mississippi. The area off the SE in a yellow circle has long term implications for the East Coast from Carolinas up to possible NY and New England. So while it is only a yellow circle, should it form ...it could be a storm to remember.

Remember that while watching Francine.
And thinking on TD 7 seen below.

There are some points I want to make and they should be remembered as Francine moves towards land.

Note the WEATHER ahead of Francine.

Also keep in mind remnants of the blob to the East.

5 AM Cone

My thoughts at 11 AM...

We have been trained like Pavlov's Dog to chase the Cone as we chase the center of the Cone. The center IS important for those in the center and for those chasing who want to be in the EYE and EYEWALL and it's an academic point, a fact ....and yet often in storms such as Francine the center is less important overall for impacts far from the center where people often feel "safer" and understanding the timing of things.

When they say what time landfall will be they often miss the point that severe weather, including tornadoes can be far out ahead of landfall, especially in a system such as this one. Remember when Idalia was still approaching landfall, there were strong winds and rain pounding Vidalia Georgia far to her NE as Idalia was a front loaded system. We often see them when they are in the Gulf of Mexico going NE especially when moving towards a feature that catches parts of them, way before it grabs the eye.

This whole area is NOW getting weather.

It'll get worse weather.
It'll get random crazy weather.
This is not a Cat 5 compact hurricane.

It's a hurricane....blob like in ways.

Strong center down to SW.

Heavy bands moving inland now.

All the strong weather to NE (front loaded)

Dry air = black on this loop

Darker the drier. White wetter.

Dry/Moist

Creates severe weather.

Stronger squalls over a wider area.

It's not your Momma's Katrina....

...get Katrina out of your mind.

It's Francine.

Elephant in the room:

There was a strange ballet evolving in real time on Mimic last night, stealing my attention from Francine. It was this dip dipping down and verifying the models that something could form off the SE Coast from several factors. I've mentioned this nonstop lately, when the MDR is not favorable and can't get much spinning, look close in as often something spins up close in off the SE coast. This morning's MIMIC shows a stronger, faster evolution but as always NHC floats a yellow Zero% in 2 day and 20% in the 7 day. It is almost always their opening bid, so to speak.