99L Off East Coast! Why Isn't the GOM an Invest Also?? Curiously Weird Day. Today is a Yellow Day. Lots of Yellow Ribbons on the NHC Main Page - Will Any Develop? Which One? 99L Off the E Coast & Not Surprised!

 

99L from Zoom Earth 

Not surprised

Last night it looked good on Earthnull.

Today looks even better.

I definitely get not naming every cloud cluster in the ocean, but we do name Subtropicals and various versions of Tropical or Subtropical Storms and this had a closed low yesterday, strong model support for development for days. I've talked on it here for days and there is warmer than normal water up in North Atlantic where Ernesto partied and it impacts land. Yup see spin below. Know the convection is sheared off to the right but, this is as good as we got right  now.

I've been watching this area for a long while now, models developed it and it was logical that as it moved up into the North Atlantic it would tighten up and form into something. Subtropical Storms are a thing, we will see what NHC does. But last night when I looked at this signature on Earthnull it seemed silly not to have an Invest (being honest) but imagine after the first morning visible... they went with 99L. Adding in the North Atlantic has anomalously warm water and many in Nova Scotia have been watching this as it's prudent to do.

What else?
Pick your yellow circle day.

GOM in general should produce.

Something....

Earthnull shows a closed low.

(insert loud cursing here)

"Oh come on ..."

Close in, Closed.

Yellow X

This is the biggest disconnect I've seen ...

...in a long while.

Make it an Invest AT LEAST!

Calming down....

1. That area off the coast, close in is looking way better than anything I've seen since Ernesto perked up in the North Atlantic after hitting Bermuda. Note at the bottom left, you can see our Caribbean Wave moving into the area. If not now when regarding the Caribbean Wave that could be a GOM spinner (TD, TS ??) and I'm sorry but that area that's been blasting Texas with rain and New Orleans and Louisiana getting rain and flooding and well if it quacks loudly it may be a duck!

2. This area has been consistent with convection, the low is out over the water and it has a lot of spin. I don't see how it's got a yellow X other than they could up it at 2 and then name it at 5. Or just ignore it?

A lot of questions here.

Not talking on MDR. Not talking African Waves. 

Will update blog later today as I do think it's an evolving day weather wise in the tropics.

As for the NHC page.

8 AM below.

Lots of yellow.

Should be 2 orange circles...

... not my call but.

Invests usually don't start from yellow.

And Low off Carolinas/E Coast should be orange.

I do like this map from Eric Burris.

Why can't NHC make 1 page....

..like this one.

Click on it and it goes to Satellite image.

This is so much easier to understand.

Starting off here. Love this Cliff Notes!

NHC Main Page just makes me stare.......

Way too busy..... 

My mind just hears this song...

Some may remember this from their young days.

Oh Lord........what to say.

While shuttng my mount a bit...

...on GOM being ignored.

As Carolina Low was... 

Thoughts on a slow season.

Does it stay a slow season?

Written before upgrade to Invest.

But true.........

...low hopes when I just want an Invest.

Why?

Because we get Spaghetti Models.

Better models. 

I'll update blog later today.

I worked in LA in my 20s in a law office actually, and they shared space with an Insurance Company. There was a low range earthquake verified mostly by hanging plants dancing around making little circles, little circles that were being made in our coffee cups and just enough rumbling to feel it in a fancy High Rise on Wilshire Blvd and immedialy within seconds the guys at the Insurance Company began taking bets on where the Epic Center was....   I thought, "oh this is a thing in LA??" It was a thing, always.

This was my first experience with an earthquake you could really feel, but was weak and rather than anyone seeming nervous they were all placing betts in an Office Pool. That's what stood out the most other than everytime I thought there was an earthquake I'd check my coffee or the hanging ferns popular that year. Okay, popular there still and for decades lol. 

When I saw the map this morning with all the yellow splotches everywhere, all I could think of ... is anyone making an office pool somewhere, betting on which one develops? 

Because it's 2024 I didn't think "that one is Francine and that one Gordon..." I thought "which might actually get an Invest??"  I thought the Carolina Low would become an Invest yesterday, but no NHC been quiet on that one. 

Strange Year. 

Ps the epic center was something like 3.6 on the Long Beach Faultline. LA Days, God I love LA! Actually was my exhusband who wanted to move back to Miami, go figure. Truth here, no one would believe that and yeah I went along with it and seemed logical as finding a 3 bedroom in West LA was almost impossible as rent had climbed like crazy and on Miami Beach we rented a 13 room mini 1920s manstion that had seen better days for what we were paying for a cute 2 bedroom apartment in West LA's Melrose area. We eventually bought the cute, old broken down Roaring 20s house on Miami Beach that made it through Andrew and every other hurricane that came near ...incredibly well, but not surprising as it was built BEFORE the 1926 Hurricane and lived to tell the tale. That said, it had 2 incessant leaks in heavy rainks that contractors told us probably came from the original 1926 Hurricane. 

See everything comes back to hurricanes, even when you start off talking on earthquakes in West LA!

Check back later on the ongoing Soap Opera of As the Tropics Don't Turn....

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter weather and Insta really whatever and a lot of weather when we get weather.

The heart of the matter is that it's about a closed center and spin, add in CLIMO support and real impacts over land, on land or landfall. While I am known to be a CV Wave girl.....long long trackers, in truth is slow seasons ....close in is where it's at and when models are doing a horrific job... you go with what you got and what is and lean on CLIMO and close in systems spin up faster than anything that will spin currently out in the MDR. Think of this September as October, trust me feels like early October this morning in Carolinas where a cold front cooled us off and it's beautiful. The pattern is off... it is what it is....keeping those two systems a yellow X is a total disconnect with reality, everything shouldn't be based on "the models" especially when........they've done a poor job promising scenarios that didn't happen. Who remembers Debby forming and going up the East Coast vs reality of watching her slip to the West into the Caribbean?  It is what it is.