Hurricane Harbor: Tropics Quiet, But Close in Possibilities. Waves Fighting SAL (still...) and Shear at Entrance to Carib (is what it is) Once in Carib, Well Carib Will Produce What the MDR Denied...

Holiday Weekend.

Tropics Sunday.

Lead wave colorless....

...tho has real potential

Not there yet!

Too quiet, that portends trouble.

Pent up energy is dangerous.

2nd wave alive but NHC not interested.

Because MODELS (not long legged kind)

Everything model driven these days....

if models verify, it's a go for lift off!

Off FL there's color & spin.

Again old models hinted at it...

..seems to be verifying but

again everything model driven...

..for confirmation purposes.

(you expected paragraphs today?)

Watch the area off FL coast.

GOM

VS currently colorless wave near Islands.

Old wave ignored.

Oh "let's look at new wave"

(rolling eyes)

There are certain truths that everyone wants to ignore, okay not everyone but many. Models are not carved in stone predictions, but suggestions changing from model run to next model run. Short term models have been as disappointing as tropical waves off Africa. But, taken over a period of time....they suggest what may happen. The GFS is a LONG RANGE MODEL it takes a lot of patience and clearly many do not have patience online as we cruise into September with no named storms. Waves over Africa have been mediocre at best, though they looked great before SAL showed up late to the show and took over like a crazy uncle who goes on a long rant at a family reunion. You can clearly see SAL still a factor in the loop above. Lead wave has no real color, though I do believe it may do wild things as a late bloomer in the Western Carib. If not the lead wave but second wave behind it that's being ignored because models don't like it and now everyone is watching the next new wave to roll off ........literally missing the forest for the trees. Close in is where it's at when the deep tropics are dead and with the introduction of a strong cold front soon, close in is really where it's at and ripe with possibilities. Earthnull consistently shows something to look at, but the models don't jump on board.

The models foretold of a hyperactive season and almost all meteorologists put out their own forecast or discussion, many including how they ran AI and it confirmed what the forecasts said if not even stronger. Some old time climatologists online pointed out that La Nina might not show up until the end of the season and doubted the strength of the forecast while pointing out we would have a solid hurricane season, but it would be busy late vs early. Then Beryl..........that squeezed in under the wire just before SAL shut down the Atlantic, but hey we have ACE from Beryl.

We are about where we should be for a normal to busy season, but not where we thought we'd be, because the models. Nice that NHC is cautious and careful and loyal to the date that it brought to the Prom, but that said wake up and smell the coffee. Currently Decaf is being served in the Atlantic. Strong Coffee is currently showing up on sale in the Gulf of Mexico, off the Florida coastline and most likely somewhere between Jamaica and Cuba in a little less than a week's time. Whoah I love real Jamiacan Blue Mountain Coffee and no not digressing.

I do believe in the GFS and it's basic logic for a strong system, most likely a hurricane in a week or so in the GOM, definitely possible though I wouldn't pick the spot it impacts currently and it may impact a lot of spots. But I also think something could form in the GOM close in, small but annoying kicking up weather and a low of some designation may ride up the coast and grow strong the further North it goes. I insisted Imelda would form there and it's a similar ULL with a moisture heavy environment, only made Tropical Storm status but caused severe flooding. Are we doing weather or playing Fantasy Football in search of ACE?

There's an old song... Just My Imagination. It's playing currently in the Atlantic Basin as many want to cling to a forecast that was just a forecast and may verify in ACE but not in number; quality vs quantity indeed. Does it really matter if it's quality vs quantity?

SAL is still there, yet so is the second wave and I do mean the 2nd wave not the 3rd currently over Africa. Also look closely and there is shear near the entrance of the Carib. Yes, it's September and it is what it is. What it may be ...will be when one of these contenders gets into the Caribbean close to the Yucatan, GOM and it's hot to trot and one will develop. Don't lock in on a model run and think you know for sure which wave will develop and get the name you expected, but the pattern will develop and produce a named storm despite SAL and shear at the entrance to the Carib.

2024 started off not normal and it's still playing that song, so go with what is and know we have only just begun September of 2024. Stay tuned. I do believe....but I don't buy models that haven't been reliable. At some point.... just stop....look at synoptics and what is and stop kicking the GFS model around that has been right often because it's trying to see way deep into the future. Local NWS can't get the 2 day forecast correct and is always a day late and a cold front too short. But I do believe this new cold front does the trick for me and possibly the tropics.