Nothing for 7 Days ...Doesn't Mean Tropics Don't Wake Up Just Before September. But WHERE? WHEN?? A Look at the Factors Why Season Moving Slowly. Why Early Forecasts SEEM Off? Will See Soon As CLIMO Should Kick In.

 

Not much to say.

But I'm trying.... 

Some things I want to say...

Early season forecasts are a dime a dozen and often based on similar routes to the same solution and obiously while it's not an underactive season (yet) it's not soooo active as model based forecasts would imply. It's too soon to play the blame game and ask what went wrong. Why? It's not over yet and CLIMO basically would say something should develop in the next week or so on some level, somewhere in the Atlantic Basin. CLIMO was what was used before we used the various models and the AI extra data  added in and in the end CLIMO usually wins. 

Not saying there isn't potential.

Huge waves take a long time to come together.

We saw that recently.....

...Enresto looked awesome near Newfoundland!

Warmer than normal water in April and May doesn't show what will be really in August and Septemher. It's an indication and if things remain the same, then in theory we would have an extra OMPH to add to those waves. Low shear is important, but the waves need to be moist and not moving hyper fast westbound and they also need to be well formed waves with a hint of a center and some signs of a possible need to spin. Waves do better when they are curvaceous rather than "interesting" looking. They can't be huge, amorphous blobs all over the place like that Uncle that gets drunk at family parties and someone tries to lock him in the bathroom and explain "inside thoughts" to him and to try and convince him it's time to go home.... 

Mimic shows us huge areas of moisture.

Swaths of something stretching out...

...in too many directions. 

Linked together with moisture....

...but these waves look odd.

Saharan Dust is a huge factor in that the waves ride with the dust and sometimes get all tangled up in it, especially if coming off at higher than normal latitudes. Sneaky, well developed waves ride low in the Atlantic trying to sneak under the SAL and waiting for that spot where they can spin up close to the islands. Beryl was so sneaky it got out of the gate just before the SAL exploded, rode low and did that thing they do when they pull together fast in warm friendly water with unusal low shear and then did Rapid Intensification. As it moved further into the Caribbean it had more problems and as it approached Texas everyone argued if there was anything left in it and the answer was "yes" and luckily it didn't try rapidly intensify again. A swan song to an amazing tropical life that few tropical waves even attempt when they roll off Africa in the last days of June. June in this case was too soon for Saharan Dust to shut Beryl down!

So despite this..........

.....let's see what could happen.

Maybe.

Let's connect the dots.

One possible track coming to a tropical theater near you ...as shown by ensemble models... is a wave comes off Africa and it persists, doesn't fall apart yet doesn't go wild just yet and manages to get near the Islands. Then it begins to pull up some rather than going into the Carib and somewhere near but NE of PR it moves up towards the Bahamas and Florida, the Florida Straits and the Carolnas are all watching this possible player after days of "not expected during the next 7 days" from the NHC. 

Some take this into the Straits (always warm, friendly and welcoming to waves) and into the Gulf of Mexico around the High and then it's a possible player in the GOM. 

Other ensemble models elevate this to a stronger player and as more cold fronts are supposed to come down after a slight warm up next week and depending on where the front is, how strong it is and if it pulls it towards landfall or scoops it up out to sea. That scenario has everyone from Myrtle Beach SC to OBX NC watching it carefully. 

How long can Saharan Dust persist to the degree it has so far and for how long?

This really is a big question.

And, we have had huge sprawling waves and the water is not as hot as you'd think compared to how hot it looked like it would be back in April and May when the whole hype began on what a wild, hyperactive season it was going to be. If you take Chris off the charts as it was a very short lived system, some argued should not have been upgraded we would still be looking for the D storm and that's within the range of not a slow season but a normal season. 

Often it is said about an early May Tropical Storm or June Hurricane that "early activity is not an indicator of ...." meaning it's a one hit wonder, get over it we will go back to quiet and then wait for CLIMO.

The CLIMO QUEEN should be on the scene soon and if not, then we really have to re-evaluate what the models saw and why the experts were wrong on some level. The season is not over til it's over and again this should be a backloaded hurricane season meaning September remembers it's hurricane season, October is not all over but filled with huge Wilma and Mitch sort of hurricanes and then November puts out some late season wonders.

Let's throw out the early hype. Let's throw out the early models. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong or the real truth is somewhere in between.

Lastly................

Much of this I do believe is a problem as everyone has been singing the La Nina song for so long they forget that La Nina forms in real time and sometimes kicks in really slowly and it was often said by conservative  meteorologists that I respect that it'll only be a factor in the latter part of the Hurricane Season.  MJO seems to be forecast to arrive in line with September Prime Time and if La Nina shows up stronger later then we will have much to talk about other than why nothing is forming in the tropics.

Again I partially blame the waves coming off as too all over the place. I taught school years back and I have a few brillant but very ADD kids and often it takes them some time to pull things together and then they become late bloomers who go far and accomplish much. 

It's not over til it's over but for today this is the way it goes.

Again these are my own thoughts.

Based on years of studying hurricanes.

And specializing in hurricane history.

I'll add in Larry Cosgrove thinks things will pick up.

He's a good friend and I respect his forecasts.

He doesn't jump on the bandwagon.

He lays out his own thoughts......

...based on years of experience.

Knowing CLIMO

and 

Geography!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta whatever..

In theory... CLIMO

Will do thing it does.

Time will tell very soon!