Hurricane Harbor: Ernesto Taking His Time Exiting Center Stage... Ghost of What He Once Was But Still There. Waves in ATL But Models Don't Like Them. Close In Possibilities.... Maybe. Lazy Sunday.

This is pretty much Ernesto currently.

A big wind signature over a wide area.

Poor signature on Dvorak below.

No Cone y'all know where it's going.

As mentioned by NHC in Discussion.

Anchored in Bermuda a bit.

Not much to say as it exceeded most expectations in that it fought off dry air most of the way from Africa. Dry air entrapment was a thing always and somehow it managed to pull off being upgraded to a hurricane, briefly attain 100 MPH winds and threaded the needle of Bermuda with a landfall. Not every hurricane is Camille nor Andrew. That's definitely good too. Don't think any were like Betsy, just saying.

Often ocean spinners are beautiful to watch spinning on satellite imagery. Ernesto was really not. But it was the 5th storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season.

Not much to say on model development as there is not much model development. There is always the chance of something spinning up close to home over hot water but the High has been relentless so far in playing defense. A cold front is forecast to move down through the Carolinas, into Florida and then go flat as cold fronts tend to do in August and while we have a few days of cool "but not crisp air" in the Carolinas their tail ends over hot water always need to be watched.

Not much to add so going to leave it at this ... it is what it is until it isn't. Being honest. I have a cold front I'm gonna enjoy in that it won't get into the high 80s but not cold enough for boots.

My gut feeling is the area around the Yucatan is ripe and hot and if anything gets between there and the coast of GOM something could spin up. Not saying it will but it's the real wild card here this week.