Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED! 5 PM TS ERNESTO!!! ........................

Recon phoned NHC... just kidding.

Relayed data supporting an upgrade.

Ernesto definitely carrying TS conditions.

Weather ahead of it and waiting to make landfall.

Center not in Islands.

But the weather is....

...more in a bit.

Note it SPED UP

Speedy.... 28 MPH WNW

Hmnnn

Only real Ernest song I could think of...

* * * * *

The red X marks the spot!

I showed the Red X for this reason.

98L is a LARGE behemoth blob.

With the little groupie wave behind it.

Earthnull.... still a wave.

Wave with strong weather in it.

Wave is forecast to close off......

...and become a hurricane.

Probably close to the Islands.

Which is why NHC made a PTC Cone.

Heads up with info - no surprises.

If here is one, NHC will add it in next advisory.

They crest, they tighten up.

Then crash onto the beautiful beach.

Once it gets a name.

It won't be "just a wave"

It's a rolling wrecking ball.

A wave train is when we have waves....

...Rolling towards the Islands.

Island beaches... where people live.

Let's talk on the Intensity forecast.

Depression into the Islands.

Tropical Storm Erenesto IN the Islands.

Doesn't become a hurricane until after the curve.

Not saying that won't happen.

Just saying if that's the timing.

I'd expect he takes the left side of the Cone.

Obviously, I can be wrong.

But so can be NHC

And if so they will nudge the Cone a bit.

And in real time and giving good heads up.

That's what they do.

Watching waves like this can be like watching paint dry in real time. Once they come together, things change fast and once it's got a circulation it maintains it's energy and keeps going like a wrecking ball.

Where does it go after the "Islands" ....

Puerto Rico is firmly in the Cone now, that can change of course, but only time will tell if the NHC is right or if they are wrong. And, as the Cone moves in real time they won't be wrong. It'll cruise up the enter of the Cone or to the left and if it takes the left side .... they will nudge the Cone left.

The goal (in my words) of the NHC is to track the storms and give us all a heads up, so that some Cat 4 Hurricane doesn't smash into some thriving little beach town that never saw it coming the way it happened years ago. There was no heads up, there was no "get a plan" and there was no clue there was something called a Hurricane for some early pioneer families living along the Hurricane coast in Louisiana or Florida or Virginia Beach. Whoosh came the storm and the storm surge thrashed the little wooden buildings at the shore's edge and plucked people out of their homes and they were lucky to survive. The waves of the giant storm, bigger than any they had ever dreamed of, tore down their Dry Goods Store and after that the Saloon was good too! The survivors buried the dead the best they could, being shell shocked and numb and picked up whatever they could find ...if they could find much...and packed up and moved back inland to start over in some other safe town that didn't have these vicious waves that came from hell and tore their world apart one haunting howl at a time, one thrashing wave at a time griding apart the beautiful life they had built in a beautiful once thriving little town with incredible sunsets.

So yeah...........let's all give the NHC some leeway with a huge messy tropical wave that will at some point tighten up and form a circle somewhere into a Hurricane with an EYE and endless waves pounding the beach and bands with strong storms swirling about it's well formed center.

One wrinkle in this scenario may be a center reforming somewhere closer to the Islands, as it's carrying many potential centers and when energy transfers from one weak potential center to a stronger potential center things can change and we may move from potential to actualization and reality.

Right now this is all potential possibilities while we wait for PTC5 to form a center.

Think of this wave as a huge transport vehicle such as some odd truck transporting some government equiptment on it on an Extra Wide platform with a huge tarp over it and as you follow it on your Road Trip you wonder what's under the tarp.