Hurricane Harbor: 8 AM UPDATE PTC4 FORMS AFTER CUBA.... AIMS AT FLORIDA ... Landfall Possible Late Saturday ...Needs to Get Her Ass Off Land and Totally Into the Water. Landlubber. "Debby" Gonna Do Land Trust Me...

Still waiting for it to come together.

Waited late hoping I had more news.

News is we have to wait.

If you look carefully here.

There are two areas....

The area known as the center to the North

Another competing area to the South.

NHC is dealing with it well.

And, they take all of this into consideration.

PTC4 looks like the Joker from Batman.

or maybe a Pirate ;)

Banding visible.

Nice round pocket.

But no "there" there center wise.

Following the center NHC is ....

In motion here you can see what's going on.

It's breathing...

But that area to the S needs to be dealt with...

... time will tell.

Wide view shows a healthy wave in the Atlantic.

PTC4 in the Caribbean hovering around Cuba.

The messy mass of convection to ti's North.

8 PM data above.

Listen I will be honest. Some systems are messy and horrible to watch in real time as they form and then suddenly they form. But does this stack up or does it remain tilted. Hard to walk in one direction when you have two heads like the Push Me Pull Me I showed from Dr Doolittle the other day in the blog. And, this wave complex has had this issue for a while now. Maybe it moves with that problem. Time will tell.

My concern is when the timing is off then it can miss it's window to zoom North towards a landfall near the Florida Big Bend and then what? We will see in the next 12 hours or so. I'll be back tomorrow evening. See what the NHC says and keep on top of the NWS for your city IF you are anywhere near this big weather maker, filled with rain and some winds. At some point it should become a Tropical Storm.

It's a mystery being solved in real time... Keep reading if you didn't do so and I'll be back.

Watching from NC where my town is in the cone as of tonight so ... well a lot of the SE is in the Cone!

Besos BobbiStorm

WNW at 16 MPH

30 MPH winds

Key notes from Discussion.

As it's moving parallel to the coastline.

Any small change can change landfall.

And, I'll add "suddenly"

Depending on how close it is offshore.

Well written discussion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/021459.shtml

Forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby

Cone...........

Note Florida Keys are in this cone.

Well into the cone.

From Key West to Key Largo pay attn!

I'm going to talk on the short term as it's the most important. With this forecast to become a Tropical Storm making landfall on Saturday Night possibly......(tomorrow) .....NHC put up a Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert as it is in the process of forming and moves fairly fast.

After the Florida Keys.....Everywhere along SW Florida needs to watch this as the slightest ability for it to move right of track it could make landfall the way Charley did, however Charley was a Hurricane and this is not yet a Tropical Depression moving fast. Tampa gets storm surge up into Tampa Bay if this all verifies and it's currently aimed at the Florida Big Bend where tropical systems love to go.

After Florida.........

From St Marys Georgia (just across the border) to Savannah to Charleston to Myrtle Beach and Wilmington ....they ALL need to pay ATTENTION. And, depending on it's orientation in movement if it moves more to the West of the cone Georgia, SC and NC INLAND could have impacts!

Could

Should

May

Might

These are the keywords with this forecast for this POTENTIAL Tropical Cyclone still in the process of forming.

****Please keep reading from 9 AM*******

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over Eastern Cuba, at 1100 AM

Breaking NEWS!

Note this is not very organized.

Yet it IS organizing.

My main message here while waiting for the 11 AM Advisory Package to be released by the NHC is that IF it stays weak on approach to SW Florida ....everyone in SW Florida and the Florida Keys and East Coast of FL (Miami thru Melbourne) gets weather as well. Whatever strength it has wind wise and surf wise can impact the beautiful, tropical cities of Florida SW coastline, but the weather will be widespread and be far from the track of the cone... the center...and am sure in time the NHC will narrow that down and advise with their new method of showing dangers that run with the storm even far from the center. PTC4 most likely Debby will be a good chance to exericise the new Cone in a populated area.

PTC4 has a nice round pocket.

Along the NW side and NE side you can see where banding could form

The rains down in Jamaica on her bulky Southern side could form into a tail.

But we are far from knowing what PTC4 will look like as it approaches landfall in Florida.

What we do know is the general steering currents that exist.

As always timing is a factor so watch her forward speed.

The water vapor here shows dry air in red.

Red-Orange if you are into Crayola

As it moves up into FL Straits there's less dry air.

Very hot water.

Welcoming environment.

30 MPH

1012

WNW at 16 MPH

90 Miles ESE of Camaguey Cuba

Looking good this morning.

Nice circular pocket

You can see where banding will begin.

Down below, beginning of a tail.

Strongest color over water.

She needs to get into the water.

90% next 7 days.

60% in 2 days.

Odds going up we get a Cone soon.

This is X marks the spot.

It'll form in the FL Straits.

Move up towards FL.

Models have dance moves.

Slowly models come together.

The issue is how much time she spends over Cuba. If she takes the more Northerly modelsshe will be over water faster (at least part of her) and she will develop faster. IF she crawls across Cuba slowly, dumping copious amounts of tropical rain she will take longer to develop.

Again she's a landlubber.

Likes land.