60% Orange ....Watching & Waiting for the Wave to Get Into an Area More Favorable. Models Be Modeling. Stay Tuned..

 

We are holding at orange 60%

This is where we are today at Noon.

An X showing where the wave is....

An arrow showing where it's going.

It points to a formation zone.

THIS IS THE AREA.....

...WHERE DEVELOPMENT COULD FORM.

I'm breaking this down this way on purpose. There are two parts to this tropical problem that everyone is trying to over analyze, while models insist something forms close in and can get a name. One model makes it a serious hurricane, others make it a weak tropical storm, others show a long term threat to Texas and when we look at it we see not much to talk about. And, yet we are all talking. We are all hungry and dinner is delayed, but we can smell it cooking.

It's a broad area that is being watched. 

Sometimes one model takes one part of it and carries it to one area whereas the other model takes another part and develops it elsewhere. The hatched orange area covers the models all sitting in opposite corners. The future is not clear, but we know where to look for something to develop. 

What is clear is that twenty years ago there was not even an attempt to pick up on development this far out. Thirty years ago we were dealing with a weak, wandering westbound wave that became a tropical depression and then a weak storm named Andrew that was doing so poorly in real time that there was discussion about downgrading it but then something changed. There was no orange X before it formed with a long hatched period indicating it could be a threat to the Bahamas, Florida or the Carolinas in seven days before it was even designated. We are in new territory and people have to understand that.

I keep getting calls and messages from friends in Florida asking if they are going to get hit by the Storm. There is no storm, there is a weak tropical wave in an area that is unfavorable for development. But that weak, stubborn wave may get into an area favorable for development close in to Florida and the Bahamas.  And, that is where we are today.

It's not a Cone..........  it's a ZONE ....an area where a tropical system may develop.

So we watch.... and good for the NHC that they are trying to give the most early info available to give a heads up that something may be forming. They are doing their job. Are you doing yours? Are you prepared for a tropical storm or a Category 2 Hurricane or a Cat 5? 

I'll update when NHC puts up an Invest and we get a higher level of investigation of the situation.

And, remember models change all day, over and over and over so never stay locked in to some model that shows landfall 7 to 10 days away when we don't even have a "center" or anything but a tropical wave. But, know we are overdue for development and as we turn the calendar to August we will all see things ramp up tropically speaking.

If you click on the image below from ContentWeatherGuy who knows weather and has a way with words and carefully drawn arrows. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm