Orange 50% Formation Zone for Stubborn Tropical Wave Now Near the 50 Yard Line. Waiting on Invest and Recon to be Scheduled ...

 

50% Orange Formation Zone

While waiting for the NHC
to put up an Invest.
Let's look around the Internet.

This is plausible if ...

..timing and steering currents align.

Note this could get into this location in two different ways.

1. It slides up along the East Coast making everyone from Miami to Jax worry...

2. It can get further West, develop later and slide across the state of Florida then emerge

over the the Georgia Bight and follow the steering currents around the edge of the High Pressure.

Note moisture goes inland in the Carolinas out ahead of what would be Debby.

There's probably a third scenario, but let's stay with those two.

What I love about Mike (and this is going way, way back) when he says he has said all he can...he talks for another 20 minutes. Smiling. And, that's good cause I do so enjoy listening to Mike talk. Speaking of Mike, let's look at his post this morning.

We see a variety of possibilities*

So let's go back to the top 2.

It's possible the wave slides along towards the Island, lifts some (in theory stronger waves lift) and traces the High Pressure along the Florida Coastline. If the high expands then Florida is in play, if the High contracts it gracefully slides away. If the frontal boundary that has been forecast to possibly be there shows up it can move on up into Carolinas or slide off the coast with it near OBX. Again it's all about timing. If you are not at a bus stop the bus does not stop for you and you miss the bus. 

It's possible that it slides more to the left (West) stays weaker, dumps heavy dangerous rains on the islands..both Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles and curves up somewhere near Cuba (if the High is that HUGE) and begins to develop a core in the Florida Straits and slides up the SW... West Coast of Florida finding a spot to criss cross over. This happens usually in October, however the weather patterns have been unpredicatble and we've seen a few weak frontal boundaries move far to the South where they die out and where they do weather happens often. Then the system could slide back, re-emerge and slide up the coast. Yes, this does sound like some gymnastic routine you might watch if you are watching the Olympics thinking "how did they do that" and that could happen. Logically the first scenario makes more sense.

*It's all about where, when and why it forms and where the center is..how strong the center is and what it appears to do in real time and how it interacts with the High Pressure AND any Upper Level Low that shows up for the party. Basically it's complicated. It has not formed yet, it is simply a wave we are watching that has a good deal of model support and more troubling forms closer in being a problem where landfall is more assured vs some out to sea variety that turns North fast before the Islands becoming a Fish Storm.

Orange is  moisture.

Rusty, reddish orange is moisture

As for the Sahran Dust, this wave has wandered West staying weak but there and now is at an area where there is actually ample moisture for it to flare up some and show us what it's got.

Again the steering currents are currently all about the High Pressure and the location and timing of the where the wave develops and what the High is doing as to what me as the steering currents usually dictate the actual track of what could become Debby.

Personally waiting on it becoming an Invest, as that raises up the level of investigation, data and info we get from the models, satellite imagery and the ever popular floater. I'll update if they do.

If you live in the area of Florida, Cuba, Bahamas, Islands and North up the coast to Georgia and the Carolinas you should be watching this to see how it unfolds. If you go to the store today, tomorrow or the day after grab something you have been meaning to buy to throw in the Hurricane Supplies and go about enjoying your day. In a few days we will know more about what may happen and less about every possibility a random model throws at us on any given run.

Have a great day... stay tuned. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather...Insta whatever.

No plans to go to MIA personally.

But who knows???

You should follow them if you don't already.

Good at drawing wxr maps and music.

Suggested I'd like it and they are right!

Things to remember:

Weak systems are prone to produce copious amounts of rain and anywhere there is elevation, you can get dangerous flash flooding in Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.