Sunday Morning in the Tropics. 40% Orange - Lots of Talk and Not Lots of Action. Chasing Models on Tropical Waves. We are in the realm of IF and IF and IF = ???

 

40 % in 7 Days

This is NOT a Cone but a Zone for formation.

While the cone often is laid over these areas we see in the early days of wave watching, it just as often doesn't happen as it evolves over times as the models try to grasp onto a slippery solution while a wave tries to find some traction and develop. We are in the realm of IF and IF and IF = ???

Not using  names, just showing images.

I will say below is the GFS - go figure

Fact vs Fiction.

What is real today?

Cute li'l Low with no name.

That's a current image. As in really there.

Content Weather watching it because...

..it's up in his backyard.

And it EXISTS it's not a model suggestion 
and it hooks in towards him!

And he does so love his yard..

Below is not the same low.

This is a next week from the EURO

.

So while the current low off the coast is not being watched by the NHC so it's irrelevant, but may cause a li'l bit of damage in parts of New England. Then...the EURO throws a bigger, improved low up that way in a week or so. It's worth saying that the EURO fantasy low goes out to sea sliding up along the coast as far as it can go. 

Patterns are important.

But what I am really showing you in the above squares of nameless models and that one reformed GFS one is that.........they all are reading the High differently. The first one shows the High suddenly contracts, inhales and allows a system to slide on by. Let's look again. 

The next nameless model shown above doesn't allow development until the last moment, after laying low and playing possum and suddenly showing life after inhaling good Cuban Coffee and slides along a weakness in the ridge (high) and threatens the Gulf of Mexico.

The usual GFS BRAT who likes to party hardy no matter what the other models will do suddenly goes rogue and refuses to see any development, anywhere in the tropics. Go figure.

And perhaps the GFS is right?

Or not...........

The GFS shows a high of epic proportions.

Yes, I showed that 3 times.

So until we see real development from a tropical wave we are just shooting the tropical breeze with lots of hot air that probably reinforces the ridge.....hey .....who knows....maybe how the High gets so huge and really I don't know. Lots of run on sentences while grappling for something hard to grab onto here.

Yes we have waves. Yes we have a "formation zone" of 40% orange. Only wiggly, circular lines on Earthnull where the only closed low is the aforementioned "no name low" off the East Coast. What we see from satellite imagery is a stubborn wave that survived the SAL and is just about at the 50 yardline. Oh my gosh I miss football!!

Fact vs Fiction.

For now we are playing Fantasy Forecasts.....

....makes a good meteorological mystery novel.

Fact is nothing definitive is going on.

But yes, it is fun to speculate online.

So stay tuned.

35 days til September.

August should drop a storm or two.

Time will tell.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@Bobbistorm on Twitter

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It's a summer day in Raleigh. That means it will get hot eventually, even if I have the window open with a fan in it pretending I'm back in California and not in Carolina. There's some numerological game going on there if you are into that and oddly it's one of the more out there things I am not so into. But I notice the peculiar fact that I left Florida for California, went back to Florida and then left it again for Carolina. Is that weird or what?  I do have to say that I've been to many of the 50 states (and PR) and Florida, California and Carolina all have a whole lot of beauty. As I got older the realization hit me that most of the got away hurricanes passed Florida by for the Carolinas so when I met my soon to be husband from Raleigh and we were dating I thought "Okay.... Carolina has football, Carolina gets hurricanes and they get snow" and so luckily as things worked out I'm here in Carolina waiting for some cooler temperatures, fall weather and looking to go to Wrightsville to throw kisses at passing by hurricanes that clip the coast and move on elsewhere while serving up some awesome waves. Sometimes they make landfall here. Often they make landfall here. Is this Florida's year for landfalls? Honey child, as my Grandma Mary would say,  "we just don't know yet what's gonna happen" and then she would go walk the dog and stare up at the clouds with a nervous look because she grew up in Tampa and she knew weather. She read the clouds, the patterns up above in the sky the way we sit and stare obsessively at models. 

Much love...thanks for reading along... stay tuned!