Wave Complex at 60% Orange - Just Needs a Center... NHC Tracking Carefully. Models Offer Mixed Solutions. Why? What Could Happen.........???

 

Some clarification here....

The arrow is not the PATH of the wave.

The arrow shows you WHERE it'll develop.

It's not a cone, it's not the track.

Forecast from NOAA for Saturday.

A weak Low is offshore Florida.

Sliding along the W edge of the High.

on Mike's Weather Page...

a different 72 hour forecast in this map.

Also from NOAA

Shows the Highs very close together.

Little broken line (wave?) in The Bahamas

A Low down in SW Carib.

There is no cone or forecast track.

So we look to other indicators from NOAA.

Below is the IR loop.

Wave Complex on right edge.

White ghostly cane is an ULL

Currently it's gonna keep tugging it West.

Also because it's weak and weak goes West.

Bottom edge of AOI is IN Carib.

More on that later.

Our wave complex could slide partly into the Caribbean, crawl across the Greater Antiles and emerge in the Florida Straits as a contender. This is basically the solution the GFS has stuck with through out it's runs. The EURO slides it up into the The Bahamas towards Florida. The orange grid is the FORMATION ZONE and the arrow kind of reminds you it's not forming by the X but in that hatched orange zone.

This is more a Wave Complex than a tropical wave. There was a tropical wave, behind it was a fast moving larger tropical wave that was interacting with a fast moving upper/middle level low caught in the Saharan Dust giving us thos picturesque images early on that we shared on Twitter aka X.  Now it's a wave complex vs a well defined wave, and this is why it's less defined than you'd normally expect. I posted the image below 2 mornings ago on X and it showed something odd was happening with the wave which was really two waves and a complicated low caught in the Saharan Dust. 

If you were watching carefully.

Our wave suddenly lunged to the NW on imagery.

Not a very fluid motion. 

It was less movement.

More merging together of the forces at play.

When a wave is not alligned and just a wave or in this case a wave complex, it gets complicated as often models choose different pieces of energy within the complex and run with the ball in different directions. And, it takes a long, long time to develop. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 had a very slow, messy evolution until one area won out over the other. 

A good case could be made that the actual wave is now IN the Caribbean and at some point the GFS and the EURO will merge together on one solution when a circulation forms and then runs with that ball towards whichever part of the End Zone it favors the most. And, as in football the waves do just that, like the Quaterback that searches for the area that has the least protection, throws the ball and the receiver grabs it and hauls ass towards the part of the End Zone where it can get the ball across the line and score. If the defense is too strong, doing it's job the other teams offense cannot get yardage and bogs down not able to convert and pick up downs. This is where we are currently with "The Wave" which is really a wave complex, messy and no real there there...yet. And, as it hasn't formed, energy can shift back and forth and all around like some glitzy old play a college team usually does to fool the defense and well we just don't know yet what the score is here or even where the actual center will set up.

True definition of "it's complicated" . . .

And, honestly it's easiest to say it'll move up towards the frontal boundary, but that frontal boundary isn't exactly hauling ass as it's July 31st and the fact that there is a frontal boundary at all is a big deal. Again this feels like late August not late July. And, that also confused models and people trying to track this wave. Stronger waves go to the right, weaker waves tend to drift to the left.

Normally, early waves stay weak and move West into Caribbean and then if they find a lucky spot they develop and pull North into the Caribbean, otherwise they move West towards Central America. Strong healthy waves pull North, but that works when there is a defined, strong low pressure area...seriously a center of a hurricane.

There is nothing normal about 2024.

Bottom Line

Outliers... 

What could or is throwing a wrench into the forecast.

Stalling.
Why might it stall?

August 1st fronts are not that strong yet and move slowly or stall.
High to the left and high to the slide together and pinch off it's forward movement or escape path.

Could two systems form?
Could both models be right?
It's possible over time.
It's a long, broad wave and sometimes a part of a system gets "left behind" and slides off westward with the flow and spins up somewhere else. The original, actual wave moves off towards the frontal boundary and traces the left edge of the high.

Why?
The original wave we were watching, got eclipsed by the faster moving wave that was right behind it. When waves come off close together and the second wave moves faster they can do odd things and that is what happened with this wave. The NHC left the X in the middle of the whole mess, waiting to see what happens. IF it came off like Beryl, almost spinning with a well defined center, this would not be an issue.

Stay tuned.

I'll update if an Invest is put up later today.

Know there is a possibility of tropical weather edging up the Florida coastline and Georgia and Carolinas are all watching.

Know there is a possibility that the wave develops close in around the Florida Straits or in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and moves towards landfall and both Georgia and the Carolinas need to watch that as well as often we get back door systems.

Sweet Tropical Dreams (or Fall Dreams if you wish)

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Twitter mostly weather, Insta whatever

Ps......Fall is when the hurricane season really ramps up and we get football as well ;)