Hurricane Harbor: Invest 97L Currently Over Hispaniola. Models Bicker on Timing and Track. GFS Sees a Defined Tropical System (Debby) Near W FL ... Crosses FL & Tries to Head to Charleston But Cruises Back Across Florida. Welcome to August. You Thought July was Weird. You Haven't Seen Anything Yet. Ps EURO Sees Nothing for a Week or So.

Introducing Invest 97L

Purple Dot on Zoom Earth.

Our system this morning.

AOI = Area of Interest aka Invest 97L

We now have Invest 97L! This has been a wave of sorts, really a wave complex as it's complicated and complex. It was a wave way back when, then a fast moving wave behind it over took it and there was a mid level low wrapped up with the Saharan Dust and we ended up with this wave complex that lumbered along. A real wave has wind barbs that are not closed, not wrapped and look sort of like a wave in the ocean but on satellite imagery; a crest of sorts vs a closed center or even a semblance of a center. We now have an Invest, which means we have a definitive starting point and more guidance from models and Recon IS going in; you will see Spaghetti Models up everywhere now. You can see the faint signature on Earthnull below. Remember the Dominican Republic has high mountains. Rain over terrain is never good even as an Invest.

So we take the vort near DR

This is the one we saw South of PR.

It's moving along there to the West (for now)

This is a developing situation. Fluid.

This Invest is so large....

...it obliterates Hispaniola!

You can see parts of Haiti still.

How this evolved?

Back when the ensemble models were cluttering up the map with possible storms from the Gulf of Mexico to up the East coast, we thought we would know by now what is really going on. The GFS originally took it under the Greater Antiles into Florida Straits and up into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The other models saw it forming, racing after a frontal boundary in late July near Florida and sliding up towards the Carolinas. GFS went silent. Then, the GFS came back with the same solution and since then most of the models have pulled more towards the left with various different timing solutions. That dragged the formation zone graphic to the West and no longer does it look as if it could be a fast forming system off the SE coastline and pulling up along, but staying off shore and possibly even out to sea. But GFS forms this fast and I do believe the Florida Straits gets more than is being talked about, depending on where it bounces off of Cuba.

Very hot water in it's path!

Honestly it was late July. I never understood the rush to form this fast, develop it enough to try and catch a cold front that wasn't so strong and to be fair the storm forming wasn't seen to be that strong. None of it made sense from a CLIMO point of view and as it would relate to the current synoptics. Timing seemed off as did intensity for that to verify.

When a system misses it's window of opportunity for development, everything changes.

Where is it going?

Let's look at rain forecasts.

Mike posted this image above on X.

That's a whole lotta of rain!

As it missed those proposed steering currents that took it up the East Coast that have gone poof with the wind and time. The grid for development is placed to the West over Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Again water is very hot close in there and could support a stronger system than one would expect.

The GFS has been correct so far....so let's look.

Saturday it's over Cuba.

This approach to Tampa Bay not good.

Piles water into the Bay.

Tampa is a PORT remember that.

Monday it starts a trip across FL

Tuesday it tries to do Charleston.

Charleston is a PORT

Lots of surf, rain, some wind.

Then................

Wednesday it retrogrades.

Back towards JAX

JAX is a PORT

August 10th

It goes back to the E GOM

Where it all began.

Could this verify????????

????????????

I want to say no.

But some part of it may.

Either way.

If so

NHC will need to put up a Cone.

PTC or ??

As Sunday it's threatening Tampa.

And ....SW Florida

That's 3 Days Away.

Voila Invest 97L

The EURO....

Dumps rain on SFL

Miami.....

Tomorrow.

Saturday.

Sunday it's raining in E GOM

Doesn't see a windy system.

But it's weather is where the GFS has it.

Remember water is warm close in...

Tuesday....

More storms, not a lot of wind.

Friday it's still hanging out in GOM

Huge sprawling circulation to it's West.

Weather near Tampa/Naples.

One important point.

IF GFS verifies.

It impacts several PORTS.

And when they are impacted....

..we can all be impacted.

Keep that in mind.

So do you believe the GFS fantasy trip across Florida and back again? That would happen when the High takes a deep breath, expands and pushes West... pushing what's left of Debby? back west again. A weak storm is steered easily. The High is the big player as the "catching the front" has been tossed out the window.

Do you believe the King Euro or is the EURO missing something.

Truth is... the bottom line is the more Southerly vort won out and is now the Invest. However, it's a huge envelope and funky, odd wonky things can happen track wise when systems take the hard road across the larger Islands with high mountains in the Caribbean and sometimes they reform in a different spot than expected. Also, such a trip usually slows down development. But who knows it's August 2024.

Seems like in 2024 anythng goes...

Stay tuned.

Have a good day.

Hopefully we will begin to get way better data in abundance from all the powers that be and I'm guessing the models will merge together a bit more soon. As it is the EURO is now on board so that says a lot.

Besos BobbiStorm

Does Debby do Ybor City??

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather

Insta whatever.

Remember when you have a system that forms across a wide area with sometimes two different vorts vying for power you get a push me.. pull me situation and the models have a hard time grasping the details while sniffing out development. When steering currents collapse, storms have been known to criss cross Florida and do odd things.

1994 Hurricane Gordon.