Updated 5 PM. PTC5 Cone Introduced with Advisories.......98L Looking Good on Models, Nice Pocket & Form BUT....Like Debby Needs a Center, a Heartbeat. Wave by AFRICA OMG Put Together But........NO Yellow 10% X?? What's Up With That? African Wave Train & Could We Get a Surprise BOO System Close IN?

 

As I said earlier this morning...

...PTC was expected by the NHC.

And, there's the Cone!

Broad circulation yet...

...no defined center.

Currently forecast to make a turn...

...after the Islands.

110 MPH Hurricane in 120 Hours.

As the sunsets on it you can see...

Nice big pocket, should have nice banding.

Approaching the Islands.

Watching and Warnings.

Further to the West is the system ...tropical wave....that NHC has low confidence in and there's little model support but as you can see from the video above it's got color and a real sense of itself.

Another loop is below.

Below is the system we are watching.

PTC5 Center Stage. 

(don't look at the red dot to it's right...)

I'm going to just leave this here now and will update tomorrow. With systems such as this we have to let them roll, let them do their thing and let them find a center. Once we see the center and know what sort of center it is (well aligned or tilted) and where and when this all happens I can talk on models verifying. Remember Debby was supposed to turn before the Islands, in the Islands and turned near Havana Cuba. 

It's all about timing. If PTC5 follows the time schedule the NHC has laid out, then everything should proceed as expected. Should it dawdle in development or move slower or faster things can change. It can get further West or it can turn before the Islands. Without a defined center I wait and watch. I have found that prudent as many a Fish storm didn't end up swiming out to sea before making landfall. And, if a Fish storm moves too slow it misses it's ride out to sea. So we wait and see.... 

If u didn't read this morning's blog.

Please keep reading!

Thank you

****

10 AM

3 systems here I am watching.

Lead wave is Invest 98L with rudimentary form but no real center yet. NHC may have to put up PTC for the Islands as many models show it could tangle with them soon vs later turning to the North. The turn to the North is like looking at a foggy crystal ball, it's too soon to tell for sure what it does other than it will soon get into the Islands (into or clipping them) and then we will see. 90% in 7 days is hard to ignore add in 70% in 2 days, it's compelling because models like it and in truth it has the shape and pocket, it just (like Debby) needs to find it's center. Either way PTC Cone will most likely go up as it's moving quickly towards the Islands and may directly impact them. Still needs to come together but the game plan is development!

West of Africa is a wave that looks incredible on some satellite imagery and has legit closed isobars on Earthnull, unlike 98L but has not even a yellow lemon thrown at it. Will wait and see how it goes.

It has stronger chances on this product above.

I'm sorry this is silly not to have a yellow 20%

Come on... I know it's Sunday but... smell the coffee.

3rd Wave is over Africa and we have a legit, wave train setting up and as SAL subsides as it eventually does we will have one heck of a back loaded hurricane season.

Wild Card in GOM

An area ignored also....

....talked on it Friday on X 

Sometimes life surprises us...

...that's all I'm saying.

But because models we are chasing 98L

Waiting on a PTC for Islands if this continues.

Have a good Sunday .. I'll update if NHC does.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

PS....

Extra credit discussion.

98L has a huge pocket but no center. The huge pocket allows it to fight off the SAL. Making it more a contender down the road once it gets it's act together. But never ignore a wave that has a tight circulation coming off even if surrounded by SAL. Beryl was surrounded by SAL and it survived. And, 98L has carved out an area of SAL IF the African Wave gets there. Ridiculous not to put a yellow X even if only 10%