Updated 11 PM -Tropical Storm Debby........Forms Just NW of Havana Moving NW on Her Way To Florida....Then Georgia/Carolinas and ???? Landfall as Hurricane Debby From NHC Forecast

 

11 PM Cone.

Similar, subtle differences.

Close up on interactive Cone.

Zoomed in on 11 PM "landfall"

Can compare to the 5 AM tomorrow.

Keep reading, thanks.

Current radar presentation of Debby

From the awesome Zoom Earth!

Love that site!!

Debby moved away from Havana...

..Recon went in and she was upgraded.

Currently West of Key West.

But she's dumping rain far from the center.

Tornado Warning tonight in Ft Lauderdale.

Wrapping up nicely.

East side loaded as models forecast.

Heavy band of rain moving into SFL

Those are strong storms... 

Rain is the main impact that most will remember from Debby, though I can't eliminate the chance of tornadoes spinning up in her bands near and far from landfall. Moving quickly now NW at 14 MPH and forecast by NHC to be a hurricane at landfall. Some models.......have suggested it could be a Cat 2 and that's not impossible to see happen, though time will tell. As always prepare for a Category stronger than suggested by advisories from NHC. 

Rarely do I put the center line on this blog, but in this case with the amorphous circle on the last days I felt it was a good idea. Also, we can go look back and compare the forecast with the actuality. I'm in the cone for the last day or so and hoping to get some rain and it'll keep the temperatures down and see what I end up doing on Tuesday... much depends on the actual location of Debby.

Landfall forecast in the Big Bend area "near Cedar Key" but these Eastern GOM systems that parallel Florida's West Coast often surprise us a bit so will see what it looks like in the morning before giving specific thoughts. Heaviest forecast rain is actually in the Carolinas and nearby Savannah. 

This is a typical N Florida Cross Over system.

So far anway.

I'll update with the 11 PM Cone at the top and going to enjoy looping satellite imagery and models and talking to friends and thinking........lots of thinking going on for me to think on. 

I will say I knew that it would go over or near Havana before forming in the Florida Straits as it left Havana. Not an official NHC forecast so added it in as the song on Friday and if you know me...you know me that was definitely my way of saying ... it's going to Havana. Debby took the lower road and actually did exactly what I believe a very long term GFS said she would do vs the earlier "let's all go with forming in the Bahamas and sliding up along Florida" which was becoming obvious she was not doing. It was in the Cone either way but once a chunk of her showed up in the Caribbean on both radar and satellite imagery it was clear the early long range models were correct. As I said way back when this first began, one model showed it sliding in stealth mode westboubd in the Caribbean under Cuba, emerging suddenly at the West end of Cuba and tracing the SW coastline of Florida til a landfall up near the Big Bend. Then all the other models went with the Bahama solution and when GFS showed a storm again it stayed with it's previous model days back that showed it approaching the Apalachicola area. 

As much as people love to complain on the GFS it does a good job of sniffing out long term solutions.

Impressive.

More on Sunday.... had a nice day today. I had a very rainy afternoon with one warning after another for this area and I hung out on the balcony watching the clouds, listening to the thunder and watching the rain. A relaxing day looking forward to hopefully a cooler week in the Carolinas as we get more rain from Debby. But where exactly does Debby end up? Will know more tomorrow.

Getting busier. Should have something else to watch soon as well besides Debby.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

BobbiStorm

Replaying the song I played on Friday. Great song...