Hurricane Harbor: 11 AM Look at Ernesto. Found His Center......Visible on Earthnull Finally. Barometric Pressure Dropping. Winds Increasing. Carib Hurricane Season

11 AM

Let's start here with Ernesto!

Close up of closed center on Earthnull.

Been hard to see one til this morning.

Loop above shows Ernesto in it's early glory.

Banding in all directions.

NE band will curve down create a tail soon.

You can see it's center spinning.

Large juggernaut of a system.

Some quick discussion vs the bullet note thoughts I put under photos here. As the core of Ernesto strengthens, builds vertically into the atmosphere he will become stronger and at some point should go through Rapid Intensification. Where and when exactly needs to be nailed down, it's hard to forecast though the signs are there and should happen. It's also possible it intensifies into a strong hurricane, but in small increments of time. Ernesto is a HUGE system I'd call it "sprawling" definitely is the right word for it currently. It's impacting areas in the Islands and at the same time moving along sending some form of weather and clouds further to it's West. Where it turns is important, and trusting NHC on this as they have been good with track but it needs to turn by PR or it could severely impact parts of Dominican Republic. The Interactive Map shown below illustrates where it makes the forecast turn as well as where it goes from here. Ernesto is a long tracker so we will be dealing with it for many days.

A satellite image from Donna in 1960

There's a beauty in watching a hurricane develop on satellite imagery that to be honest mentors I learned from years ago never had that ability to do as they didn't have such awesome water Vapor loops and IR loops and Microwave Imagery loops they were lucky to get one good satellite image with poor definition and those they learned from never saw a satellite image in their life. Hurricanes that are long trackers are a marvel of nature that many would love to be able to tame and control. It's hard to do properly as any time you take an action upon a hurricane to minimize it's impact, it can backfire or create other problems as learned in the past though somewhere someone is always trying to figure out a way. See link at bottom for more info...

Tornadoes form fast in real time, spin fast, winds wilder and impact often without warning and then slide, climb back up into the clouds and you wonder where and when it will come back down again. Radar helps but it's a whole different form of meteorology than watching a hurricane from in real time over time watching a good strong tropical wave roll off of Africa and then frame by frame watching bands form. Then watching a new strong storm in that band and we watch for days both in awe, amazement and terror as sometimes (not always) a hurricane makes landfall and we know it will rearrange the lives and landscape of those in it's path. We're trackers, we are stalkers, we are researchers, we are historians and we are chasers and sometimes many of those labels apply to us at once. And, we try hard to warn and give heads up to those people possibly in the path and get out information as fast as possible. And, we try so hard to nail down the details of Rapid Intensification so that we can give better warning of where and when a Category 1 hurricane may make landfall as a Cat 4 in your town not so far down the line.

Rapid Intensification really is the Holy Grail in this case, makes such a difference yet we aren't there yet.

Back to Ernesto.

ERNESTO needed to slow down and breathe a bit so it could intensify. This should be a lesson to all of us in this hectic world we live in to slow down, catch our breath and then we can move on calmer, more focused, stronger and are able to...do more stuff. Sounds silly, but true. A tropical storm speeding 28 mph just moves faster than it's 35 MPH winds are able to wrap around a center trying to develop...seriously the definition of a "moving target" and we watch in real time. Now that it has finally slowed as forecast, it's game on for it to become a Hurricane and the only real question remains is how strong a hurricane and where will it be when it is strongest. At 11 Am the NHC Discussion is sticking with the same wind speed it tops out at and I do think IF it does RI then it'll be at least 115 MPH but that's putting the carrot before the proverbial horse. Currently it tops out at 110 MPH on this particular advisory.

Let's look at Ernesto's track currently.

Things can change - remember that.

Eastern part of PR in the Cone.

(impacts happen outside the cone...)

Virgin Islands.

In the cross hairs....

Love my NHC Interactive Map.

You should too!

Because Ernesto is HUGE

Winds will be FAR from Cone.

Tropical Storm Force winds...

Rainfall...remember PR has mountains.

PR is prone to flooding ...

So is DR far removed from the Cone.

But in the Zone of heavy rain.

UP the Road we worry on Bermuda.

Things do change so stay tuned.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Note it's close to where OBX is in NC...

...maybe not "close" but watching

And will get HEAVY STRONG SURF.

Honestly, gonna just watch it today.

Watch it come together.

No not putting up a Beatles song.

But it is coming together.

Dvorak Loop.

Measures intensify.

Strong white spinning cell in middle.

Ernesto's center.

Also shows the general lay of the land.

How it's inhaling, exhaling.

The blooming effect as they grow.

And Today in History....

..20th Anniversary of Charley.

2004

Hurricane Season Florida Never Forgets.

Leaving the blue line there.

Busy day, it's real.

One hour to edit it... on X

Right side Frances and Jeanne.

So similar.

Charley top left.

Ivan bottom right.

Busy, busy year.

Remember it well....

Awesome image from my friend Adrian.

Great to follow for excellent info always!

Awesome videos on YouTube from Jim Edds

A friend and someone I respect greatly.

Fantastic Hurricane Chaser.

Good guy!

His thoughts on that chase.

Today is a day to do things, while watching Ernesto get it's act together and just really take it all in. I'm not going to talk "down the line" on maybe this wave or that. MJO moving into our part of the basin at a time historically things happen and go bump in the night from a nearby hurricane ...so today. Think back to Charley if you remember it and look at Ernesto today building it's core and we will talk tomorrow on where it's going and what else might develop.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather and Insta what ever and weather of course.

Song for the day.