Ernesto Exits Stage Right Avoids Greenland! Models Don't See Anything But Surprises are Called Surprises For a Reason. Early Cold Front in Mid August on E Coast into Carolinas

This is obviously unusually warm water.

Sometimes storms do well up there.

Avoided Greenland now bound towards Europe. 

Amazing form at the end.

Rounder than it's ever been!

Truthfully there's nothing to report other than it's quiet today in the Atlantic and models are not showing much for a week to ten days. The MJO is in the EPAC coloring up the Eastern Pacific with lots of colorful possibilities as Gilma and her friends put Fall Color on the NHC map. 

Eventually this comes our way in that the MJO...

...moves West to East.

So the colors you see below in EPAC...

Should show up in our basin soon enough.

Use this time wisely.

Stock up and yes Pumpkin Spice Latte on the way.

I know people decorating here in the Carolinas.

Supposed to be 61 degrees in the morning here tomorrow.

Yes, the water is warm in Atlantic.

But shear and SAL are deal breakers.

It's important to remember that many a Caribbean Hurricane or Gulf of Mexico formed closer in from a tropical wave that could not get it's act together in a hostile Atlantic and founds its groove later in life the way Ernesto did and the best example of that is Camille. And, remember Erneesto while "there" fought dry air the whole way and looked horrible til it got North of the SAL in the Atlantic and intensified on approach to landfall in Bermuda.

Camille formed just West of Jamaica.

But it passed by there as a Tropical wave.

Please read this ...from Wikipedia below:

"Hurricane Camille originated from a tropical wave that moved off the western coast of Africa on August 5, 1969. It tracked quickly westward along the 15th parallel north;^[4] several days later, a tropical disturbance became clearly identifiable on satellite imagery on August 9. By that time, the thunderstorm activity in the disturbance concentrated into a circular area of convection. On the next day, the storm moved through the Lesser Antilles, although there was no evidence of a closed circulation. On August 13, the wave passed near or over the southern coast of Jamaica as its convection spread northeastward through the Bahamas. Subsequently, it began a slower motion to the northwest. It is believed that the tropical wave organized into a tropical depression shortly thereafter, early on August 14, and it became a tropical storm a few hours later. On the morning of August 14, the Hurricane Hunters flew to investigate for a closed circulation near the Bahamas and near the Cayman Islands.^[5] The crew observed a developing center in the western Caribbean, and winds had reached tropical storm status. By then, the storm had strengthened into a strong tropical storm with winds of 60 mph (97 km/h), about 50 miles (80 km) west-northwest of Grand Cayman.^[5][6]

Upon first being classified as a tropical storm, Camille was located in an area favorable for further strengthening, although initially it slowly intensified. It was located within an area of very light wind shear and an overall warm environment"

Camille formed just West of Jamaica.

Today it would have been a weak, small wave.

Westbound with no model support.

Most likely as it was very small and....

...models do not handle very small systems well.

We have a very dry Atlantic.

Atmospherically speaking.

Obviously the ocean is wet.

Atmosphere not very juicy.

East Pac busy.

In a week to ten days....

...we will have something definitive.

Or a surprise...

Stay tuned.

Use the time wisely...

..and if you got the cold front enjoy it.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather and Insta whatever.

Great song.

Perhaps we will see something near there...

..come alive.

???