Hurricane Harbor: Why Is It So Quiet in the Atlantic in Late August? Conspiracy Theories Abound. Everyone Has an Opinion. Definiton of Tropical Depression Has a New Weird Meaning... Atlantic Nina? Hmnn??? Maybe. Who Knows?

A very quiet Atlantic for the end of August.

This post was inspired by the post above.

Jim Cantore tells it like it is...

...no wild click bait words.

Tells it like it is...

So rather than try to find something, somewhere to point out to you that might develop in early September as some models are hinting at and I do mean "hinting" and only "something" vs a GFS Fantasy Cane I'm going to write about why many are confused it's still slow in late August. This blog is my journal, my tropical diary and anyone that wants to read along can ... read along. I never expected it to be read as much as it is read...especially when things are busy in the tropics... and I never expected to be living in Carolina not in Florida years later still writing this blog. I write. I am a writer. I love writing and so I am writing today. Read along if you'd like as I discuss the possible reasons that are logical or even out there for why the hurricane season is acting like a sort of normal slow to mediocre hurricane season versus the overactive hurricane season that many forecasts promised back in April, May and June. Perhaps June is too soon to be sure what any given hurricane season will look like in September. Time will tell.

Everybody wants an answer, a reason or some cute catch phrase to write about to explain why this hurricane season touted in the news as a hyperactive hurricane season using up all the letters given to us by NOAA to name storms has gone silent both in action and in modeling. It's hard to even get the GFS to toss us a fantasy cane in 384 hours. But we had wild predictions with long explanations and pretty graphics delivered to the general public online and shared on every social media and now everyone is asking why the Atlantic Tropical Basin has gone quiet. I'm personally hiding from relatives on WhatsApp who are asking me this question lately; hiding here on my blog which they hopefully never read as there was a time I went long on my life not just the weather.

From Central America and Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico to Florida and the Caribbean below it's quiet. Out past the Caribbean in the Main Development region it's quiet with some waves wandering West across forecast hot water and low shear and yet nothing is spinning. Up in the North Atlantic where it's usually way too cold to have a hurricane, we watched as Ernesto went Hurricane again looking better than it ever did while it swam with the Saharan Dust gulping in dry air making it difficult to find it's mojo. But, hey no problem up near Newfoundland.

It's been a strange year in the tropics. Beryl formed too early, too strong and went long all the way from Africa as a wave to it's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico after hitting islands in the Caribbean that rarely see a hurricane let alone a Cat 5 Hurricane with 165 MPH winds on July 1st. Anyone can tell you normally that we don't see hurricanes in the Caribbean in June and July, because of the shear at the entrance to the Caribbean....usually there.

Saharan Dust came on strong AFTER Beryl made it's sneaky moves towards landfall as a historic Cat 5.

And then we had a very weak, short lived Chris and Ernesto that had multiple problems finding it's groove, but managed to make landfall in Bermuda as a Hurricane and then after falling apart it came back to life looking better than ever in the far North Atlantic.

It would be very easy to say that the 2024 Hurricane Season has been really weird. And, when I say weird I mean without a doubt in every way it's been weird and it just keeps getting weirder. The word weird has been overused this year first in the political arena and then everywhere you go to describe music, food or fashion.

"adjective

suggesting something supernatural; uncanny.
"the weird crying of a seal""

It can be used to describle the 2024 hurricane season as there is something uncanny and even some online think supernatural. You know all those theories on pole shifts and aliens arriving by 2025 as if we don't have enough problems already?

The hardest thing to say sometimes, especially in the world of science and meteorology, is "we don't know" and even harder to say "I don't know" and this is where we are on August 26th saying we don't know for sure why the Atlantic has gone so silent.

I don't know. I'll say it. And, I'll add it's a mystery that will take some solving. I love research, I've worked as a Reference Librarian and love trying to learn more and unravel meteorological mysteries.

I can say "September things will change" or I can say "the MJO is coming like the tropical cavalry to save the hurricane season" and I can also say "watch close in for development along an old stalled frontal boundary" but the truth is I'd be grasping at straws and repeating what's logical. And, it's logical to say that CLIMO will kick in at some point and we will have a backloaded hurricane season busy in Mid September through October, but we really don't know for sure.

Every hurricane season is different. I used to say they were like Care Bears and each one is unique!

Every hurricane season has it's own rhyme or reason ... we often understand once it's over.

Long range forecasts and predictions are just that... predictions, forecasts to use as a guide for what might be and yet sometimes they are very off.

In 1997 there were forecasts for a bumper crop of hurricanes in a busy season and we had nothing for a long time to talk about other than joking around which we did often. Yes, we talked on all sorts of things, but we weren't talking on advisories and there was no bumper crop of hurricanes. Why? Well, looking back we had an El Nino form suddenly that was not forseen, not in the forecast and came on so strong that some magazine such as Time or Newsweek called it the "Mother of All El Ninos." (Time was like Twitter for those of you who don't know and Newsweek was like Instagram. A little humor helps right?)

The beauty and mystery of weather is that Mother Nature still has tricks up her sleeve even though we think in 2024 we know everything. If you want to talk about A1 may I say it sucks on Facebook and Instagram, it's a total fail almost always though it works better on other platforms.

Some blame the quiet season on a stronger, later SAL outbreak. Okay, that's logical.

Some blame it on poorly formed waves moving too fast and that also is logical.

Some blame it on the higher latitude waves that have been moving off of Africa and okay.. but if so why aren't they forming fast into Hurricanes and swiming up into the Atlantic as Fish Storms?? Oh right the SAL, okay that's logical.

Some blame it on the "Pole Shift" that has more videos on YouTube than Atlantis and the New Madrid Fault Zone and while bored there's always someone who will watch anything ...especially if there's some fear factor involved. Hey...who hasn't snuck a glance?

Of late this is the newest theory.

Link below........

Now we have a new reason that is popping up everywhere and that is the possibility of an unusual misplaced La Nina forming in the Southern Atlantic. All La Nina and El Ninos have an impact on traditional weather patterns. We know that an El Nino usually shuts down the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean as there is stronger shear than usual. La Ninas in the Pacific usually up the ante for wilder hurricanes seasons in the Atlantic with less shear and I'll add Beryl in fact went all the way through the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

South Atlantic always puts on a show on Earthnull!

The South Atlantic has been the scene this year of many a conspiracy crime as there have been odd formations, areas heated or cooled that arose to a whole slew of conspiracies online a while back. Now there is talk that the South Atlantic is cooler and creating a La Nina of it's own and that could, would impact the Main Tropical Development zone in the Atlantic and that's logical if indeed it is happening. Though not sure it would explain why the Gulf of Mexico that was fairly active earlier in the season is having problems now getting anything to spin and anyone who has been around knows the GFS usually likes to spin up a Major Hurricane hitting New Orleans on any given run when things are quiet on all the other models.

We don't know. I don't know. No one really knows for sure though many think they may know. Looking back from the perspective of December we will know how many storms actually formed, where they made landfall or swam out to sea and why this season was not as busy as expected by all the experts putting out forecasts for a hyperactive hurricane season. And, I'll add we may see that yet.... as we went 60 days in 2022 during the hurricane season without even a tropical depression and then things got very busy!

Is this really sooooo strange?

Or is this because expectations were raised to Mt. Everest expectations for a very busy hurricane season?

That's a good question. Here's a nice image from Jason Nichols on Twitter. Note part of the discussion is this season's hyperactive forecasts were based on a huge, fast La Nina forming that would up the ante in the Atlantic for a busy season on top of the hot water in the MDR back in April and May. Then many experts said that the fast forming La Nina was overhyped and expect a slower forming La Nina and that might a factor for our quiet times now. Many have said La Nina will form in the later part of the Hurricane Season such as late September, October and November. It is logical there is a reason that the La Nina that was forecast is dawdling. If indeed we have an Atlantic Nina it might slow down or change the formation of the La Nina off the West Coast of South America. And, again La Ninas and El Ninos always have their unique qualities, they are not all the same.